Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[abajan]

Since reality sucks right now, I can dream of a Gabrielle, can't I?
Below is the biggest real Atlantic hurricane (Sandy doesn't count) I have ever seen on satellite: Gabrielle, 1989:

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/6666/i8jf.jpg

Yeah, I think that's the one that sent huge swells to Barbados, damaging cars and stuff and also spawned a tornado in Trinidad.

Anyway, this is off topic.

[floridasun78]

so this may not get hurr with wind shear going up like other system bye dust how many system this year have that issue

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Since reality sucks right now, I can dream of a Gabrielle, can't I?
Below is the biggest real Atlantic hurricane (Sandy doesn't count) I have ever seen on satellite: Gabrielle, 1989:

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/6666/i8jf.jpg

Wilma east of Florida was also quite large and still fully tropical. So thankful that stayed to the NE and didn't come crashing into New England or Canada

I vividly recall watching the news out of both Boston & Halifax back around Halloween of 2005, and how everyone thought Wilma would phase with rapidly a deepening coastal trough and become the Perfect Storm II. We really dodged a bullet.

[HurricaneDREW92]

so this may not get hurr with wind shear going up like other system bye dust how many system this year have that issue

EVERY SINGLE ONE

[Riptide]

Perhaps the fortunes of 25L can turn on a dime once again, this time in a positive direction. The only requirement is that it maintains a decent structure until 50W where it has the opportunity to become enhanced by the MJO.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Perhaps the fortunes of 25L can turn on a dime once again, this time in a positive direction.

I feel this is gonna blow up around 2-5am. Just a gut feeling.

[floridasun78]

it look like nhc think their going shear ahead

[CrazyC83]

it look like nhc think their going shear ahead

There is a strong shear axis on a trough that dips down as low as 14N latitude, peaking around 50W. It lifts northward beyond that to stay north of the islands. The Caribbean is clear, as is most of the subtropical Atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

There looks to be convection firing near the center so this may indeed not be dead yet, but as said earlier if this doesn't have consistent convection by 50W then I will give it a low for development and if by 60W then no chance for development

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Well I have to say I was very surprised the convection completely collapsed like this overnight last night.

Seems to be the story of the season - great looking mid-level feature with impressive convection that vanishes in the matter of hours because of no low-level support.

By the way good call Alyono our pro met last night which was warning that what we saw was not as impressive as we thought due to wave axis being much further east than the convection.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Can someone post an image of our wave? Thanks

[ninel conde]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ir-e/x201308290215.gif.pagespeed.ic.A0YqwcbgEM.png

[Alyono]

development chances through 5 days are probably close to 10 percent. This is well BELOW the climatological average.

This is simply a very weak and pathetic wave

[hurricanes1234]

Well I have to say I was very surprised the convection completely collapsed like this overnight last night.

Seems to be the story of the season - great looking mid-level feature with impressive convection that vanishes in the matter of hours because of no low-level support.

By the way good call Alyono our pro met last night which was warning that what we saw was not as impressive as we thought due to wave axis being much further east than the convection.

In fact, I wasn't very surprised, it has happened with EVERY Cape-Verde system so far, and looks to persist for quite a while again. Way too much dry and stable, sinking air dominating the basin.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

development chances through 5 days are probably close to 10 percent. This is well BELOW the climatological average.

This is simply a very weak and pathetic wave

I dunno. I just have a gut feeling this is gonna blow up later tonight. If history has any indication I'm sure it'll do the opposite

[Hammy]

development chances through 5 days are probably close to 10 percent. This is well BELOW the climatological average.

This is simply a very weak and pathetic wave

I dunno. I just have a gut feeling this is gonna blow up later tonight. If history has any indication I'm sure it'll do the opposite

Probably will be another case of history repeating itself.

Difficult to tell if its a sign of slowly improving conditions (limited temporary convection versus none) or if the dry air is again beginning to win out.

[blp]

00z navgem still very enthusiastic about this pouch.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013082900/navgem_mslp_pcpn_atl_30.png

[blp]

The 00z CMC has its strongest run and keeps it trapped under a ridge now. Unlike other runs that had a clear recurve.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013082900/gem_mslp_pcpn_atl_40.png

[USTropics]

The 00z ECMWF briefly strengthens to TD/TS strength in the Northern Leewards before showing gradual weakening.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2013



AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N42W 15N42W 10N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 13 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.