2013 WPAC Season

[supercane4867]

GFS is very pessimistic for the next 5-10 days showing higher pressure everywere with the ECMWF dead quiet as usual.



Only CMC look ahead for some development east of Philippines which is the new invest 91W

[dexterlabio]

Given that the MJO is way out of the region, that seems very likely. I'll take the rain break. We are soaked wet here in Luzon with the previous 2 cyclones plus that stubborn monsoon.


Oh wait, the 12z and 18z run from GFS say this isn't over yet. GFS ensemble members have been showing this for the past 2 days

[xtyphooncyclonex]

LATE AUGUST NUMBERS:

Storms : 24
Typhoons : 11 (+3 unofficial)
Super Typhoons : 4

[Meow]

LATE AUGUST NUMBERS:

Storms : 24
Typhoons : 11 (+3 unofficial)
Super Typhoons : 4

This is too difficult. 9 of the next 10 storms should be TY.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

LATE AUGUST NUMBERS:

Storms : 24
Typhoons : 11 (+3 unofficial)
Super Typhoons : 4

This is too difficult. 9 of the next 10 storms should be TY.

As we have 14 storms, 2 typhoons (+2 unofficial), all the storms would be unofficially classified as typhoons because as it states in my earlier post (+3 unofficial). 10 more storms to go...

[euro6208]

During the upcoming week, a residual threat for tropical cyclone formation is present over the western North Pacific, along 20N, near 150E.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'm not expecting much after Kong-rey for a couple of weeks whilst the MJO is raging across the Atlantic. I think mid September we should see our next burst of activity. The ridiculously low ACE 2013 season continues!

[mrbagyo]

I'm not expecting much after Kong-rey for a couple of weeks whilst the MJO is raging across the Atlantic. I think mid September we should see our next burst of activity. The ridiculously low ACE 2013 season continues!

yes, the MJO is moving away from us,and WPAC is just loaded with wind shear
Time to prepare for the monsters of the "Ber" months...
I'm expecting to see the strongest TC to form in mid-October.
_______________
all eyes on the Atlantic... TS Fernand looks like a harbinger of what to come...

[dexterlabio]

We will see in September when the MJO returns to this basin. We might continue with an underwhelming ACE....unless the season pulls off a 2006 with the most intense ones forming at the end of the year.


It's good to note though that all the systems we've had starting from Utor were not MJO-driven.....and also worth noting that the MJO pulses we've had since the typhoon season began passed very quickly across WPAC and were not strong.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Kong-rey may become our 3rd official typhoon (predicted by JMA) and because its convection move close to the center, is at warm SST's, slow movement. and lower wind shear.

Yutu may become a major typhoon because it can develop in the open West Pacific and gather more A.C.E.

[The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

Come on JMA, stop underestimating storms! They said that there are only 2 typhoons, which there are actually 5 and too CONSERVATIVE.

[No offense. I am sorry for offensive words, I'm just expressing and don't want to add more.]

[Extratropical94]

I agree that the JMA often underestimates the intensity of storms in their AOR, but you can't say that there were actually 5 typhoons because it's not the JTWC that decides on whether a storm is a typhoon or not. (at least it's not the official agency to do that)

But I know what you mean, cyclones with an eye and an eyewall with cloud tops of <-80C are most likely typhoons with 65+ knot winds, not low-end tropical storms as mentioned by the JMA.

Have a look at the Indian Ocean. The IMD is even doing a far worse job when it comes to the estimation of intensities...

I think it would be best if all the official monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones would be done by only one central agency that has the experience, the resources, the knowledge, and the capability to provide adequate information like texts and visual products for the public. (which would basically be a conglomerate of the JTWC and the NHC)

[euro6208]

Kong-rey may become our 3rd official typhoon (predicted by JMA) and because its convection move close to the center, is at warm SST's, slow movement. and lower wind shear.

Yutu may become a major typhoon because it can develop in the open West Pacific and gather more A.C.E.

[The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

Come on JMA, stop underestimating storms! They said that there are only 2 typhoons, which there are actually 5 and too CONSERVATIVE.

[No offense. I am sorry for offensive words, I'm just expressing and don't want to add more.]

not 5 but actually 4 typhoons already based on 1 min...they all have eyes too ...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Kong-rey may become our 3rd official typhoon (predicted by JMA) and because its convection move close to the center, is at warm SST's, slow movement. and lower wind shear.

Yutu may become a major typhoon because it can develop in the open West Pacific and gather more A.C.E.

[The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

Come on JMA, stop underestimating storms! They said that there are only 2 typhoons, which there are actually 5 and too CONSERVATIVE.

[No offense. I am sorry for offensive words, I'm just expressing and don't want to add more.]

not 5 but actually 4 typhoons already based on 1 min...they all have eyes too ...

According to JTWC, the typhoons are Rumbia, Soulik, Utor, Trami and Pewa....

[Extratropical94]

Kong-rey may become our 3rd official typhoon (predicted by JMA) and because its convection move close to the center, is at warm SST's, slow movement. and lower wind shear.

Yutu may become a major typhoon because it can develop in the open West Pacific and gather more A.C.E.

[The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

Come on JMA, stop underestimating storms! They said that there are only 2 typhoons, which there are actually 5 and too CONSERVATIVE.

[No offense. I am sorry for offensive words, I'm just expressing and don't want to add more.]

not 5 but actually 4 typhoons already based on 1 min...they all have eyes too ...

According to JTWC, the typhoons are Rumbia, Soulik, Utor, Trami and Pewa....

And AFAIK the JMA only had Soulik and Utor as typhoons, so we are still at 2.

[euro6208]

September is now only 2 days away...

Season Numbers so far...(1 min winds)

14 Tropical Storms...5 Typhoons...2 Major Typhoons...

ACE...58.545

Active Storm: Tropical Storm Kong-rey



1 Tropical Storm SONAMU 03-08 JAN 45 -
2 Tropical Depression TWO 19-21 FEB 25 -
3 Tropical Storm YAGI 08-12 JUN 55 -
4 Tropical Storm LEEPI 17-20 JUN 35 -
5 Tropical Storm BEBINCA 20-23 JUN 35 -
6 Typhoon-1 RUMBIA 28 JUN-02 JUL 65 1
7 Super Typhoon-4 SOULIK 07-13 JUL 125 4
8 Tropical Storm CIMARON 15-18 JUL 40 -
9 Tropical Storm JEBI 31 JUL-03 AUG 60 -
10 Tropical Storm MANGKHUT 05-07 AUG 40 -
11 Super Typhoon-4 UTOR 08-14 AUG 130 4
12 Tropical Depression THIRTE 17-17 AUG 25 -
13 Typhoon TRAMI 17-21 AUG 75 1
14 Typhoon PEWA 18-25 AUG 65 1
15 Tropical Storm UNALA 19-19 AUG 35 -
16 Tropical Storm KONG_REY 26-29 AUG 55 - Active

[South Texas Storms]

September is now only 2 days away...

Season Numbers so far...(1 min winds)

13 Tropical Storms...5 Typhoons...2 Major Typhoons...

ACE...58.545

What is average for this time of year in the WPAC? This year is pretty quiet over there too, right?

[dexterlabio]

The number of named tropical storms so far is near normal to date but the ACE is underwhelming. There were unusually few typhoons that formed so far, so yeah....a quiet season going on here..

[euro6208]

very large area of ridiculously warm water and the entire region supports a cat 5 in both maximum winds and central pressure!



Depth 26.C Isotherm extends to great depth...



impressive...



a ticking time bomb...The warmest waters in the world...

[euro6208]

interesting...looks like a strengthening MJO during the 2nd half of september if this were to verify...we've already had TS Toraji and Yutu develop during the dry phrase...I think this is just the calm before the onslaught of the *BER* monsters...

[Hurricane_Luis]

I think the JMA have made a mistake in naming Yutu as a tropical storm.

NO data to even support a tropical storm...Dvorak shows nothing...was likely a frontal or subtropical system...