NW Caribbean?

[Stormcenter]

Any concerns over what's perked up in the NW Caribbean?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-animated.gif

[ninel conde]

not in the caribbean due to the east coast trof. however, if it makes it to the BOC it could develop.

[Hurricaneman]

not in the caribbean due to the east coast trof. however, if it makes it to the BOC it could develop.

The 12zGFS starts developing this at 96hrs in the BOC and moves it inland at hr 204

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[ROCK]

204hr is forever and a day away....that is not this feature. This feature as shown by the NAM makes it into the BOC but buries it before it has time to develop.....

[hurricanetrack]

Why is the east coast trough the reason nothing will develop in the Caribbean? Never heard that one before.

[ninel conde]

Why is the east coast trough the reason nothing will develop in the Caribbean? Never heard that one before.

basically because the trof extends so far south and if anything tries to develop in the west carib it will get strung out and pulled NE. the best situation for west carib development is to have a strong ridge of high pressure over new england or at least have a ridge in a position where anything in the carib wont be immediately stretched out.

[hurricanetrack]

Here is the 200mb chart from the GFS, today's 18z run. I do not see any trough at 200mb that would string anything out in the NW Caribbean. On the contrary, I do see a well developed 200 mb anticyclone there which would normally favor development.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gf ... wnd_ht.gif

There simply is no trough digging in to the NW Caribbean at this time.

[ROCK]

Here is the 200mb chart from the GFS, today's 18z run. I do not see any trough at 200mb that would string anything out in the NW Caribbean. On the contrary, I do see a well developed 200 mb anticyclone there which would normally favor development.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gf ... wnd_ht.gif

There simply is no trough digging in to the NW Caribbean at this time.

yeah I would say to get a trof to clear the Yucatan this time of year is pretty remote....

BTW- out little friend is got some cold tops right now for DMIN...

[ROCK]

nothing at the surface I can see....there is anti cyclone down there real close to it.....see if those tstorms can lower pressure and drop a LLC....that would be something!!

[USTropics]

nothing at the surface I can see....there is anti cyclone down there real close to it.....see if those tstorms can lower pressure and drop a LLC....that would be something!!

Yea Rock, there's little to no vorticity at 850 mb as well.



the mid level vorticity has really improved though over the last 12 hours.

[ninel conde]

the convection has disappeared for now. maybe it can refire.