Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[HurricaneDREW92]

Keep in mind this is through Tuesday. Even without the gfs on board, a 3 in 10 chance of development in 120hrs is appropriate.

This system looks a little better, but still limited convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Think they should bump up the 5 day development chances to 30% at 2pm.

I completely disagree until the GFS comes onboard with the other models that it should stay at 20% in 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

According to this analysis page, genesis is still predicted at day 5 for the euro model if I understand the significance of the green dots.


http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Vorticity view

[CalmBeforeStorm]

According to this analysis page, genesis is still predicted at day 5 for the euro model if I understand the significance of the green dots.


http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Vorticity view

From the study Masters cited:

European ECMWF model: The model is reluctant to predict genesis, and misses many genesis events (it had only an 8% probability of detection in 2011.) However, when it does predict genesis, it usually happens, with only a 16% false alarm percentage in 2011

[tolakram]

The UK model from the same page. A single green dot on day 5, with the green dot meaning model predicts a cyclone of some sort.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

-snip-

2. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
A LITTLE LESS THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
INCREASED SOME...THE WAVE IS HEADING WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

DUE TO A REMOTE POWER AND INTERNET SERVICE OUTAGE...UPDATES OF THE
NHC WEB PAGE MAY BE DELAYED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA

[Alyono]

It's clearly in a high shear zone now

This one is not likely to develop. We should be on the lookout for systems that may be threats

[hurricaneCW]

It's clearly in a high shear zone now

This one is not likely to develop. We should be on the lookout for systems that may be threats

There aren't any threats in the foreseeable future. This is probably the only thing out there right now to even discuss.

[tailgater]

Amen
Also we have seen lots of times that predicted shear forecast aren't that reliable. in both directions. 20% sounds about right to me.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2013


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N44W 10N45W MOVING W
AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 40W-45W. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD AND APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. AFTER THAT
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

[Fego]

It's clearly in a high shear zone now

This one is not likely to develop. We should be on the lookout for systems that may be threats

Looking at the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico Right, there is not any weather threats, besides this one. I mean, never say never, until is really never Anyway, we are in the lookout mode.

[Alyono]

except for one thing... this wave is BADLY sheared now.

To put it in perspective... this wave has no more than a 10% chance of development through the next 5 days. The average wave this time of year would have about a 40 percent chance of development.

Goes to show how pathetic this wave is

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

except for one thing... this wave is BADLY sheared now.

To put it in perspective... this wave has no more than a 10% chance of development through the next 5 days. The average wave this time of year would have about a 40 percent chance of development.

Goes to show how pathetic this wave is

Im going to keep monitoring it regardless.

[HurricaneDREW92]

except for one thing... this wave is BADLY sheared now.

To put it in perspective... this wave has no more than a 10% chance of development through the next 5 days. The average wave this time of year would have about a 40 percent chance of development.

Goes to show how pathetic this wave is

Not a pathetic wave a pathetic season and 30% is reasonable to me.

[ninel conde]

its clear where all the shear is coming from. there is a massive trof in the west atlantic with several lows embedded in the trof. its scouring out the entire western atlantic.

[tailgater]

NHC gives it a 20% in the next 5 days, shear is bad now at the mid level and upper level, but in 2
or 3 days it could get better especiallyn if t-storms start to fire off near the center as the air gets a little less stable.

40% of all T-waves develop within 5 days in late August?

[Alyono]

NHC gives it a 20% in the next 5 days, shear is bad now at the mid level and upper level, but in 2
or 3 days it could get better especiallyn if t-storms start to fire off near the center as the air gets a little less stable.

40% of all T-waves develop within 5 days in late August?

generally speaking, yes. Especially in this part of the Atl

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Season

Tropical Update

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 29, 2013 12:13 pm ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

- Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf still extremely (and head-scratchingly) quiet for late August heading into early September. In regard to current specifics, nothing much new to report on the central Atlantic and Africa systems.

ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN/GULF

So it's late August, and not even an an "Invest" anywhere in this region. That might change soon, from one or another of the current Atlantic disturbances we're monitoring, but the primary tropical theme that's been the case this month continues as it draws to a close: unusually quiet.

The thunderstorms that were present Monday with the first system moving across the Atlantic dissipated. They could come back, though their current struggle is symptomatic of what we've been talking about. Worth watching this system nevertheless simply by virtue of it having more of a chance of reaching land areas such as the Caribbean islands and perhaps even eventually getting at least as far west as the Bahamas, though models have generally been consistent in not showing much development beyond being just a weak disturbance.

Latest model runs even show a trend toward less development with the system now over Africa than they were previously predicting.

[Gustywind]

Parade of Atlantic Tropical Disturbances Picks Up Pace

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
August 29, 2013; 4:32 PM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... p/17201338


While systems remain weak over the tropical Atlantic, there are still multiple features to keep an eye on through the Labor Day weekend.

According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The most notable system that could impact people within a few days is a tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic, located at about 45 degrees west longitude Thursday midday."

This feature has developed a weak circulation in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but it has been somewhat limited in thunderstorm development.


There is a chance this feature becomes better organized over the next few days. Regardless of development, as this system continues westward, it will bring a pulse of showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles this weekend into early next week.

Another tropical disturbance is moving westward off the coast of Africa Thursday. There is also a chance this system becomes better organized into the weekend.

The parade of tropical disturbances continues to pick up the pace over Africa.

Not only are there more disturbances, when compared to recent weeks, the disturbances are stronger to begin with, producing more thunderstorms over Africa.

While this is not a guarantee for future development, when combined with warm waters and more moisture in general over the tropical Atlantic, the odds of one or more systems developing into tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes continue to increase.

In the current pattern development of more than one tropical depression through the first week of September should not come as a surprise.

Another spot to keep an eye on, in addition to the train of disturbances over the tropical Atlantic, is the area of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, known as the Bay of Campeche. This area gave quick rise to Tropical Storm Fernand last weekend, which produced deadly flash flooding in Mexico.

"There are no such features over the Atlantic Basin Thursday," Kottlowski said. "Most disturbances on the playing field right now will be counter-balanced by pockets of disruptive winds as they move along, especially those that travel over much of the Caribbean Sea and drift farther north over mid-latitudes of the Atlantic."

There is no reason to alter travel plans at this time but rather continue to monitor the tropics. In this pattern portions of the Atlantic Basin can get out of balance, tipping in the favor of development with little notice.

[ninel conde]

more than 1 tropical depression in the first week in sept??
setting bar rather low for what should be the most active week of cane season.

[cycloneye]

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.