2013 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT up to 60% in five days.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERING THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

Only notable thing of this run.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Most models are showing consistency, which is good. I like the sound of a cat 3/4 storm.

[Extratropical94]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 1400 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

Most models are showing consistency, which is good. I like the sound of a cat 3/4 storm.

As long as no one is affected!

But I understand exactly what you're saying. It would be fun to track a major hurricane, the first of 2013, and as I stated above, as long as no one is affected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

No posts for days! Well, as we can see, the area of disturbed weather that was expected to become the potentially significant Hurricane Juliette has separated into Invest 95E and Invest 96E, both of which seem unlikely to develop into even a depression. Invest 95E was deactivated yesterday, since it failed to organise properly. Invest 96E was declared yesterday afternoon, and was given a 30% chance of development within 48 hours. Later in the day, it was upgraded to 50%, but was downgraded to 40% 6 hours later, which is where it still stands. The NHC noted that conditions were only marginally favourable, and the latest outlook states that there is no surface circulation. I personally see no development out of this, because it is not consolidating in my opinion. There is a new 10% area in the open waters heading virtually northeastward. However, it is heading into the same area that 95E and 96E were. This area has until the weekend to develop, because it will be moving over colder waters by then. Overall, the basin is very quiet and I would expect it to remain like this for at least another week.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

That's a pretty fitting recap. Interestingly, the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook shows a high chance of TC genesis until September 4th, and a moderate chance for the week after that.
Could it be that they expect the MJO pulse to move towards the Atlantic more slowly than expected so that it could still enhance development in the EPAC in the 2nd week of September?

[supercane4867]

This is what 95E supposed to be according to GFS few days ago



And it's basically done now with the bogus 96E still hanging around
The EPAC is running into died mode as MJO leaves, future seems dim like the ATL

[hurricanes1234]

Wait a minute! We now have Juliette unofficially! Here is the latest outlook on 96E:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1220 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1. UPDATED...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND THAT A TROPICAL STORM IS FORMING. ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE INITIATED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Juliette is here. EPAC now at 10/6/0.

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Storm Juliette is here. EPAC now at 10/6/0.

Actually, we're at 10/6/0 already, or 12/6/0 if you also count the CPAC storms.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Juliette is here. EPAC now at 10/6/0.

Actually, we're at 10/6/0 already, or 12/6/0 if you also count the CPAC storms.

Fixed it. Atlantic is waiting for first hurricane and EPAC is waiting for first major.

[hurricanes1234]

Do any of the reliable models and their runs point to a major hurricane in the eastern Pacific in September? Do they point to any storms at all?

EDIT: My Forecast For The Remainder of This Pacific Season
September: 3-5 named storms, 1-3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. If there is a major hurricane in that month, I wouldn't expect it to surpass 130 mph. The other storms might be moderate tropical storms, and possibly two low-end hurricanes below 90 mph.

October: 2-4 named storms, 1 or 2 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes (1 maximum). If there is a major hurricane in that month, I would expect a peak of about 115 mph. The other hurricane would probably be a weak Category 1, at about 80 mph.

November: Only 1 named storm (2 maximum). No hurricanes, but depending on the activity, a 70 mph storm cannot be ruled out. Definitely no major storms. The other storm will likely be a 40-50 mph storm that will dissipate well before November 30th. By then, all activity should cease.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Do any of the reliable models and their runs point to a major hurricane in the eastern Pacific in September? Do they point to any storms at all?

EDIT: My Forecast For The Remainder of This Pacific Season
September: 3-5 named storms, 1-3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. If there is a major hurricane in that month, I wouldn't expect it to surpass 130 mph. The other storms might be moderate tropical storms, and possibly two low-end hurricanes below 90 mph.

October: 2-4 named storms, 1 or 2 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes (1 maximum). If there is a major hurricane in that month, I would expect a peak of about 115 mph. The other hurricane would probably be a weak Category 1, at about 80 mph.

November: Only 1 named storm (2 maximum). No hurricanes, but depending on the activity, a 70 mph storm cannot be ruled out. Definitely no major storms. The other storm will likely be a 40-50 mph storm that will dissipate well before November 30th. By then, all activity should cease.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No realistic storms AFAIK.

[supercane4867]

According to your forecast we might end up with 20/10/1, what a seaon!

[hurricanes1234]

Yes! I am expecting an above-average number of named storms, an average number of hurricanes, and a below-average number of major hurricanes (probably one or two). Something similar to last year's Atlantic season.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

According to your forecast we might end up with 20/10/1, what a seaon!

Counting CPAC (that's what goes into HURDAT), we would get 22/10/1. That's highly unlikely to happen IMO.

What I'd expect:

1 storm September
2 storm October
0 storm November.

We are past the peak (mid-July and mid-August, the EPAC peaks much sooner than the ATL.)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Our first and probably only major hurricane could end up falling in the next 2 months. Most Septembers in this basin have one strong storm on average (2012 - Hurricane Miriam, 2011 - Hurricane Hilary). Last year's Hurricane Miriam peaked at 120 mph in mid or late September, when the season's peak was in July. Hurricane Paul last year also peaked at 120 mph in October, when the season's peak was months before. I think we have a chance at seeing at least one major hurricane before the year ends, because each year has its own climatological peak, but it would probably not exceed Category 3 status. The first week of September this year definitely looks to have sparse activity. What are your thoughts and opinions that this season hasn't yet reached its own climatological peak?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Our first and probably only major hurricane could end up falling in the next 2 months. Most Septembers in this basin have one strong storm on average (2012 - Hurricane Miriam, 2011 - Hurricane Hilary). Last year's Hurricane Miriam peaked at 120 mph in mid or late September, when the season's peak was in July. Hurricane Paul last year also peaked at 120 mph in October, when the season's peak was months before. I think we have a chance at seeing at least one major hurricane before the year ends, because each year has its own climatological peak, but it would probably not exceed Category 3 status. The first week of September this year definitely looks to have sparse activity. What are your thoughts and opinions that this season hasn't yet reached its own climatological peak?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hilary and Miriam peaked at 125 knots and 105 knts respectively.

You are IMO wrong about a September major hurricane; HURDAT has more than 2 years of date

Last September major was in 2006 before that not counting Jimena 09.

Before that, 2004.

Also, 2012 did not really peak in July, it peaked in September. Just had 2 neat major's in July,

Honestly, if we get a major, I don't see why it could peak at 115 knots or higher.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Another invest pops up (98E).