Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[blp]

FWIW: the NAM is picking up on this.

[crownweather]

FWIW: the NAM is picking up on this.

Looks a lot like last night's Canadian model forecast of a NW tracking storm towards PR. Will it be the blind squirrel finding the nut?

[ROCK]

6Z FIM9 shows a sharp wave into the Carib....so its worth watching...20% sounds about right

http://fim.noaa.gov/

[CrazyC83]

These strong ULL's can sometimes turn into tropical cyclones themselves and shear drops as it goes west...especially at the mid levels. It might have a better chance than we think. The subtropics look favorable if it rises in latitude. This probably has a better chance than 96L IMO.

[Alyono]

These strong ULL's can sometimes turn into tropical cyclones themselves and shear drops as it goes west...especially at the mid levels. It might have a better chance than we think. The subtropics look favorable if it rises in latitude. This probably has a better chance than 96L IMO.

Disagree in the strongest of terms. The system likely will dissipate in the central Caribbean. Conditions simply too hostile

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

CMC
Looks like a Cat 5

[ROCK]

CMC doesnt think its too hostile....

[cycloneye]

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
650 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

[ROCK]

sounds right Luis.....it does have a anticyclone over it..shear is low

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=


if I lived on PR I wouldnt like that CMC run...

[cycloneye]

sounds right Luis.....it does have a anticyclone over it..shear is low

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


if I lived on PR I wouldnt like that CMC run...

But NHC doesn't care what CMC has because is not a reliable model and they don't follow.

[ROCK]

sounds right Luis.....it does have a anticyclone over it..shear is low

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


if I lived on PR I wouldnt like that CMC run...

But NHC doesn't care what CMC has because is not a reliable model and they don't follow.

they dont HUG it is more like it..... Can be used as part of a over all consensus. Plus you have the FIM9 showing something, UKMET, NAVGEM. Just because the GFS doesnt see anything doesnt really matter much.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Convection on the increase...

[Riptide]

Many models especially the UKMET and CMC bring this back to life around the islands, I don't think it is some illusion.

[wxman57]

By the way, the Global Hawk (at least I THINK it's the GH) is enroute the central Atlantic to investigate the atmosphere surrounding this disturbance. Here's the latest report. Flying at around 45,000ft.:

URNT15 KWBC 301810
NOAA9 WXWXA TRAIN HDOB 13 20130830
180100 2016N 06920W 1634 13674 0614 -667 //// 006033 033 /// /// 05
180130 2014N 06916W 1634 13678 0616 -666 //// 006033 034 /// /// 05
180200 2012N 06913W 1634 13674 0616 -666 //// 003033 034 /// /// 05
180230 2010N 06909W 1634 13674 0614 -666 //// 001033 034 /// /// 05
180300 2008N 06906W 1634 13678 0615 -666 //// 002032 033 /// /// 05
180330 2006N 06902W 1634 13676 0617 -666 //// 002031 032 /// /// 05
180400 2004N 06859W 1634 13676 0615 -661 //// 007030 030 /// /// 05
180430 2001N 06855W 1633 13677 0614 -660 //// 008030 030 /// /// 05
180500 1959N 06852W 1633 13675 0614 -663 //// 004031 031 /// /// 05
180530 1957N 06848W 1634 13673 0613 -667 //// 359032 032 /// /// 05
180600 1955N 06845W 1634 13674 0614 -664 //// 358029 031 /// /// 05
180630 1953N 06842W 1635 13674 0613 -664 //// 355028 028 /// /// 05
180700 1951N 06838W 1634 13675 0614 -659 //// 360028 029 /// /// 05
180730 1949N 06835W 1633 13680 0614 -655 //// 002027 027 /// /// 05
180800 1947N 06831W 1632 13674 0612 -657 //// 005025 026 /// /// 05
180830 1945N 06828W 1633 13680 0614 -665 //// 010025 026 /// /// 05
180900 1942N 06824W 1635 13674 0613 -668 //// 007026 027 /// /// 05
180930 1940N 06821W 1632 13679 0613 -660 //// 011021 021 /// /// 05
181000 1938N 06817W 1634 13677 0614 -665 //// 015021 022 /// /// 05
181030 1936N 06814W 1633 13676 0614 -663 //// 015020 021 /// /// 05

[HurricaneDREW92]

Thank you, wxman. We really appreciate you keep us updated

By the way, the Global Hawk is enroute the central Atlantic to investigate the atmosphere surrounding this disturbance. Here's the latest report. Flying at around 45,000ft.:

URNT15 KWBC 301810
NOAA9 WXWXA TRAIN HDOB 13 20130830
180100 2016N 06920W 1634 13674 0614 -667 //// 006033 033 /// /// 05
180130 2014N 06916W 1634 13678 0616 -666 //// 006033 034 /// /// 05
180200 2012N 06913W 1634 13674 0616 -666 //// 003033 034 /// /// 05
180230 2010N 06909W 1634 13674 0614 -666 //// 001033 034 /// /// 05
180300 2008N 06906W 1634 13678 0615 -666 //// 002032 033 /// /// 05
180330 2006N 06902W 1634 13676 0617 -666 //// 002031 032 /// /// 05
180400 2004N 06859W 1634 13676 0615 -661 //// 007030 030 /// /// 05
180430 2001N 06855W 1633 13677 0614 -660 //// 008030 030 /// /// 05
180500 1959N 06852W 1633 13675 0614 -663 //// 004031 031 /// /// 05
180530 1957N 06848W 1634 13673 0613 -667 //// 359032 032 /// /// 05
180600 1955N 06845W 1634 13674 0614 -664 //// 358029 031 /// /// 05
180630 1953N 06842W 1635 13674 0613 -664 //// 355028 028 /// /// 05
180700 1951N 06838W 1634 13675 0614 -659 //// 360028 029 /// /// 05
180730 1949N 06835W 1633 13680 0614 -655 //// 002027 027 /// /// 05
180800 1947N 06831W 1632 13674 0612 -657 //// 005025 026 /// /// 05
180830 1945N 06828W 1633 13680 0614 -665 //// 010025 026 /// /// 05
180900 1942N 06824W 1635 13674 0613 -668 //// 007026 027 /// /// 05
180930 1940N 06821W 1632 13679 0613 -660 //// 011021 021 /// /// 05
181000 1938N 06817W 1634 13677 0614 -665 //// 015021 022 /// /// 05
181030 1936N 06814W 1633 13676 0614 -663 //// 015020 021 /// /// 05

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think maybe the recon pilots are so bored that thy're just looking for something to do.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I think maybe the recon pilots are so bored that thy're just looking for something to do.

Haha I'd believe it if not for the financial issues they are having

[floridasun78]

this recon flight or hawk flight ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. ATLANTIC WAVE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 31/1600Z
B. NOAA9 01XXA WAVE
C. 31/1300Z
D. 15.0N 56.0W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/2000Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
?????

[cycloneye]

Small circulation.

[Alyono]

I'm not sure that is the global hawk

That may be the G-IV recon giving recon obs