Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU AUG 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL LATE TO NIGHT...BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALSO
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PUERTO
RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THE FORMER WERE DUE TO SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...THE
LATTER WERE DUE TO A PERSISTENT STREAMER OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CAUSING FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MOSTLY ON FRIDAY WITH SATURDAY HAVING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DRIEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING DOWN TO UNDER 1.4 INCHES ACCORDING TO
THE GFS. THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS RAINY STARTING
ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH VALUES OVER 2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AFFECTING TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ EXPECTED TIL 29/22Z...LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW DUE TO APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHRA PASS OVER THE
ISLANDS. WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE E TO ESE OVERNIGHT. TEMPO GROUP
AND PREVAILING SHRA WERE LEFT OUT OF TAF DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
BUT AN INCREASE IN SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LABOR WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 91 / 30 40 30 30
STT 79 90 80 89 / 40 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Parade of Atlantic Tropical Disturbances Picks Up Pace

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
August 29, 2013; 4:32 PM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... p/17201338


While systems remain weak over the tropical Atlantic, there are still multiple features to keep an eye on through the Labor Day weekend.

According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The most notable system that could impact people within a few days is a tropical disturbance over the central Atlantic, located at about 45 degrees west longitude Thursday midday."

This feature has developed a weak circulation in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but it has been somewhat limited in thunderstorm development.


There is a chance this feature becomes better organized over the next few days. Regardless of development, as this system continues westward, it will bring a pulse of showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles this weekend into early next week.

Another tropical disturbance is moving westward off the coast of Africa Thursday. There is also a chance this system becomes better organized into the weekend.

The parade of tropical disturbances continues to pick up the pace over Africa.

Not only are there more disturbances, when compared to recent weeks, the disturbances are stronger to begin with, producing more thunderstorms over Africa.

While this is not a guarantee for future development, when combined with warm waters and more moisture in general over the tropical Atlantic, the odds of one or more systems developing into tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes continue to increase.

In the current pattern development of more than one tropical depression through the first week of September should not come as a surprise.

Another spot to keep an eye on, in addition to the train of disturbances over the tropical Atlantic, is the area of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, known as the Bay of Campeche. This area gave quick rise to Tropical Storm Fernand last weekend, which produced deadly flash flooding in Mexico.

"There are no such features over the Atlantic Basin Thursday," Kottlowski said. "Most disturbances on the playing field right now will be counter-balanced by pockets of disruptive winds as they move along, especially those that travel over much of the Caribbean Sea and drift farther north over mid-latitudes of the Atlantic."

There is no reason to alter travel plans at this time but rather continue to monitor the tropics. In this pattern portions of the Atlantic Basin can get out of balance, tipping in the favor of development with little notice.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave moving thru PR today will bring scattered showers but all eyes continue to be towards the strong wave in Central Atlantic that may bring some squally weather to the islands early next week so stay tuned.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST FRI AUG 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 66W WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLIFYING TUTT...DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
SPREADING ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY...HOWEVER
LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

TUTT WILL SHIFT WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM
THE EAST. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE DRIEST DAY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY/LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
CANT BE RULED OUT BOTH DAYS. THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 47W...MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT TJMZ/TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ BTWN 30/17-21Z. WINDS BLW FL100 WILL REMAIN FM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 91 79 / 30 30 30 30
STT 90 80 89 80 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST FRI AUG 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. A
SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE. TUTT WILL FILL AND RETROGRESS THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN IT ALSO COMBINES WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BUT
LEFT VERY LITTLE RAIN AS IT PASSED. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS LIMITED TO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER
OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THAT AREA DID GET AFFECTED BY PERSISTENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ALTHOUGH DECREASING SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER 2
INCHES FOR THAT TIME ACCORDING TO THE GFS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE WAVE HAS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO IF THE WAVE CONTINUES AS IS BY THE TIME IT
GETS HERE...WHICH IT IS EXPECTED TO...WE MAY BE UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT DRIES AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...TSRA AT JBQ THRU 21Z WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH ONLY VCSH OR VCTS. SFC WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY...LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 30 30 30 20
STT 80 89 81 92 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND DRY AIR ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The weather this weekend will be relatively good in PR with only a few scattered showers.But the Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic will bring plenty of rain on Tuesday thru Wednesday so stay tuned for more information about that wave.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SAT AUG 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 52W...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF TROUGH ALOFT (TUTT) WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...AS WELL AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

TUTT WILL SHIFT WEST SUNDAY/MONDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
EAST. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRIEST DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY/LABOR DAY.
THEREFORE...LESS SHOWER/THUNDER AREAL COVERAGE TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 52W...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SHRA COULD MOVE
BRIEFLY OVER TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MVFR CIGS. BTWN 31/17Z-21Z...MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PR.
LLVL WINDS BLW FL100 WILL BE FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 40 30 20 20
STT 89 81 92 81 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

As Pouch 25L approaches the Eastern Carib, our pro mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe said today in their latest weather forecast 5AM that "trade winds are low to moderate becoming more moist and unstable at the front of an active tropical wave. The weather conditions are expected to be bad until the middle of next week and a vigilance is under consideration. Follow carefully our next weather forecasts".
So, let's keep an eye on this feature.

[cycloneye]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED
TODAY BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

Related to Invest 97L ex Pouch 25L.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N53W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW AT 14N55W TO 10N56W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT
NE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 49W-54W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SAT AUG 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE BOTTOM LOBE OF THE TUTT LOW IS
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND WILL MOVE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA AND BETWEEN THE TWO LOBES OF THE TUTT DURING
THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO OVER
HISPANIOLA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY...BUT OPEN
INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN
THE MORNING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SMALL HAIL...FORMED OVER THE RINCON AREA FROM LAS
MARIAS WESTWARD. AS OF 3 PM AST OTHER SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN VILLALBA AND GUAYANILLA. A FEW
STREAMERS WERE ALSO NOTED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OFF OF SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX. TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT WITH THE WAVE
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND COMPLETING THE
TURN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN LOBE OF THE TUTT LOW ON
MONDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FINALLY ABLE TO REACH NORTH
INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES...HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE
TAPERS OFF VERY SLOWLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE 2 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE 2-INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RETURNING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST...BUT WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AND THIS RAIN MAY
EXASPERATE ANY MUDSLIDE ACTIVITY. FLASHING FLOODING DURING THESE
TWO DAYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
HIGH RISK. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF HAVING
AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALL DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
ALSO THE HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS WAVE A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

VIGOROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THE RICH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THAT REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 21Z...MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TJMZ
AND TJBQ DUE TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PR. LLVL
WINDS BLO FL100 WILL BE FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AND USVI TERMINALS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 6 FEET AND WINDS PREDOMINANTLY LESS THAN 18
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 77 88 / 30 20 30 30
STT 80 90 79 88 / 40 20 30 30

[Gustywind]

By the way, Guadeloupe is since 5PM under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Given our Pro Mets and the latest weather forecast: " The evening and the night of Saturday to Sunday should see numerous stormy passages of showers and tstorms who will affect Guadeloupe. They shoud bring rainfall locally strong. This deterioration is the start of an important rainy and stormy episode expected to stall several days".

Yellow alert for Guadeloupe : http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Tropical Weather Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N54W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 15N56W TO 12N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 40W-60W ENCOMPASSING THIS
WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 56W-62W.

[cycloneye]

From tonight's San Juan discussion.

FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WWD NEXT SVRL DAYS BRINGING A BIG SLUG MOISTURE OVER PR
TUE AND WED. CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFES ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA
INDICATING MOST ACTIVE WX TUE AND WED AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DISCREPANCIES AND INCONSISTENCIES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The weather in PR will be good today thru Monday with only a few showers. The Tropical Wave just east of Lesser Antilles will bring significant rain to the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.Stay tuned for information about this situation.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST SUN SEP 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE DAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...EARLY THIS MORNING LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT CROIX. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID
70S TO 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR
LESS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA.

TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRIEST
DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY/LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND SW PR BOTH DAYS.

A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...WITH
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SW PR...MAY
RESULT IN VCTS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS BETWEEN 01/17-21Z. 01/18Z
GFS SOUNDING SUGGESTS A 0-6KM AVG WIND OF 82/13KT. THIS FLOW WILL
FOCUS THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER SW PR BETWEEN OF TJPS AND TJMZ.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE ENE LATER THIS MORNING. WND SPD
WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 18 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...AUGUST 2013 ENDED AS THE 4TH WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD
AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT(IST) IN SAINT THOMAS WITH 7.69 INCHES.
AUGUST 2011 CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD AT IST
WITH 9.14 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SUMMER 2013 (JJA) ENDED AS THE 2ND
AND 3RD WETTEST SUMMER ON RECORD AT LMM INTL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN
AND CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT IN SAN THOMAS WITH 32.89 AND 16.36 INCHES
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 77 / 20 20 20 50
STT 90 79 88 79 / 20 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF
MARTINIQUE...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR DATA
FROM MARTINIQUE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND NEARBY
SHIPS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SOME OF THE
STRONG SQUALLS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
ESPECIALLY THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Tropical Weather Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS
FROM 17N58W TO THE LOW NEAR 14N58W TO 10N58W AND MOVES W NEAR 10
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THE WAVE CONTINUES
WITHIN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NOW
EXTENDING EAST AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE AREAS OF MOISTURE MAXIMA AND IS
LOCATED FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 51W-58W AS WELL AS FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 58W-65W.

[msbee]

conditions in St Maarten this morning.. a little breezy...partly cloudy


Latest 8 AM (12) Sep 01 86F (30) 75 (24) 29.94 (1013) E 16 MPH
7 AM (11) Sep 01 84F (29) 75 (24) 29.94 (1013) ENE 13
6 AM (10) Sep 01 82F (28) 75 (24) 29.94 (1013) ENE 14 rain showers

[abajan]

Somehow, I missed the following bulletin that was issued at 4:00 PM yesterday afternoon:

The moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms which have been affecting
the island today are the result of a tropical wave interacting with the Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone. These systems are also presently affecting some of the other
islands of the eastern Caribbean.

The axis of the wave is due to move across Barbados within the next 18 to 24 hours
during which time outbreaks of moderate to heavy showers and scattered
thunderstorms will continue to spread across the island. Wind-speeds across the region
continue to be very light and this will contribute to an element of localized activity
tomorrow.

With the already saturated nature of the earth, some flash- flooding is possible. Thus
residents in flood-prone areas should take all necessary precautions and remain on the
alert.

This SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN will be updated if conditions warrant.

Source: http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings-tbpb.php