When will be our first major hurricane 2013?

[otowntiger]

This thread is for you to post your opinion on when you think our first major hurricane in both basins (Atlantic and Northeast Pacific) will be, and what strength you think it might attain (examples: 115 mph, 145 mph, 160 mph).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not altogether sure we'll have one, but if I had to wager I'd say late September/early October and really probably just one, two at the most.

[sunnyday]

IF there is a major, it will have to be in the EPAC. The Atlantic is dead, and I have a feeling it is going to stay that way.

This is only an opinion. For sound data, see NOAA or the NWS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I think we will be able to squeeze two out before end of November. But they will probably be short lived minimal cat 3's that don't get much attention because of that and the fact that the troughs in latter part of september/early october will recurve them out to sea fairly quickly and landfall will never be an issue.

[Cyclenall]

I think we will be able to squeeze two out before end of November. But they will probably be short lived minimal cat 3's that don't get much attention because of that and the fact that the troughs in latter part of september/early october will recurve them out to sea fairly quickly and landfall will never be an issue.

The ultimate screw-job hurricane season in other words. Not even giving the pessimists the stat of no majors but giving 1 or 2 crap majors (last season again) that no one cares about and would be on level with nothing.

[hurricanes1234]

For the poster who said to rename the thread to "Will there be a major hurricane 2013", I would rather its current name, but I understand exactly what you mean. The only major hurricanes predicted so far were model storms. However, I don't blame any of the models, because conditions appear very favourable at first.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ninel conde]

I think we will be able to squeeze two out before end of November. But they will probably be short lived minimal cat 3's that don't get much attention because of that and the fact that the troughs in latter part of september/early october will recurve them out to sea fairly quickly and landfall will never be an issue.

im still going with no majors. your scenario is sensible however. if jeff masters is right however the sinking stable air returns after sept15 so the best time for a major will be before then.

[hurricanes1234]

I think we will be able to squeeze two out before end of November. But they will probably be short lived minimal cat 3's that don't get much attention because of that and the fact that the troughs in latter part of september/early october will recurve them out to sea fairly quickly and landfall will never be an issue.

im still going with no majors. your scenario is sensible however. if jeff masters is right however the sinking stable air returns after sept15 so the best time for a major will be before then.

We could very well end up with a season like 2003 in the Pacific. However, I think there will be at least one major storm, even if it's just 115 mph for 6 hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

At this point I'm going to go with just one, probably in the Caribbean in October.

[chaser1]

I think we will be able to squeeze two out before end of November. But they will probably be short lived minimal cat 3's that don't get much attention because of that and the fact that the troughs in latter part of september/early october will recurve them out to sea fairly quickly and landfall will never be an issue.

im still going with no majors. your scenario is sensible however. if jeff masters is right however the sinking stable air returns after sept15 so the best time for a major will be before then.

Mark me down for a Cat. 4 around or shortly after our Atlantic basin Sept. 15 "sinking air episode"

[ninel conde]

I think we will be able to squeeze two out before end of November. But they will probably be short lived minimal cat 3's that don't get much attention because of that and the fact that the troughs in latter part of september/early october will recurve them out to sea fairly quickly and landfall will never be an issue.

im still going with no majors. your scenario is sensible however. if jeff masters is right however the sinking stable air returns after sept15 so the best time for a major will be before then.

Mark me down for a Cat. 4 around or shortly after our Atlantic basin Sept. 15 "sinking air episode"

i have marked it down

[HurricaneRyan]

Could you imagine if both basins went without a major hurricane this year?

[wxman57]

It's pretty clear that Fernand isn't going to be a major hurricane. I've been thinking Ingrid would be a problem storm. The I-storms tend to be bad. Probably the 3rd or 4th week of September (near the 20th). I'd go with 5-6 hurricanes and 3-4 majors this season.

[otowntiger]

It's pretty clear that Fernand isn't going to be a major hurricane. I've been thinking Ingrid would be a problem storm. The I-storms tend to be bad. Probably the 3rd or 4th week of September (near the 20th). I'd go with 5-6 hurricanes and 3-4 majors this season.

I'm no expert so you can stop reading now/ But from what I'm seeing I'd be very surprised if we have that much activity this season.

[wxman57]

It's pretty clear that Fernand isn't going to be a major hurricane. I've been thinking Ingrid would be a problem storm. The I-storms tend to be bad. Probably the 3rd or 4th week of September (near the 20th). I'd go with 5-6 hurricanes and 3-4 majors this season.

I'm no expert so you can stop reading now/ But from what I'm seeing I'd be very surprised if we have that much activity this season.

In seasons with the first hurricane forming in September, the average total hurricanes is 6, with 9 recorded in 2001 after the first hurricane (Erin) formed on Sept. 8th.

[Sanibel]

TWC said seasons with no August hurricanes had the worst September monsters.

[SouthFloridian92]

Never. But IF one did form, it'd most likely be in either the Caribbean, starting off near Panama and move north towards FL or the Bahamas like Sandy or it would be somewhere in the sub-tropical Atlantic.

Time period: late September to late October, with the second week of October being the most likely.

['CaneFreak]

9/20 to 9/27...major strike possible on the US - target: eastern Gulf Coast most likely (New Orleans to Naples)

[HurricaneDREW92]

Invest 96L.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

I'm thinking Humberto. Why? Some models say so.

[hurricanes1234]

Could you imagine if both basins went without a major hurricane this year?

I would be totally shocked, but I don't think it's going to happen. Most likely because activity almost certainly will ramp up, it's just a matter of when and how much.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.