ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 29, 2013 8:23 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0118 UTC FRI AUG 30 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962013) 20130830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130830 0000 130830 1200 130831 0000 130831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 15.5W 14.9N 16.9W 15.7N 18.7W 16.7N 21.2W
BAMD 14.5N 15.5W 14.9N 18.2W 15.2N 20.8W 15.6N 23.6W
BAMM 14.5N 15.5W 14.9N 17.9W 15.3N 20.3W 15.8N 23.1W
LBAR 14.5N 15.5W 15.2N 18.2W 16.0N 21.3W 16.9N 24.6W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130901 0000 130902 0000 130903 0000 130904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 24.0W 20.8N 30.1W 24.5N 36.1W 28.0N 41.5W
BAMD 15.9N 26.4W 16.6N 31.6W 19.1N 35.8W 24.5N 39.5W
BAMM 16.2N 26.0W 17.2N 31.4W 19.8N 36.4W 24.2N 41.4W
LBAR 18.3N 28.1W 22.0N 33.0W 28.7N 36.0W 31.9N 34.1W
SHIP 46KTS 60KTS 62KTS 58KTS
DSHP 48KTS 62KTS 64KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 15.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 12.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 9.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#2 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 29, 2013 8:50 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#3 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2013 8:52 pm

GFS 18Z run, vorticity. Notice how it gets hung up around 165 hours and moves west?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082918/gfsfull_pres_wind_atltropics.html

At the end of high resolution mode it shoots out NE, which is a likely solution, but strengthening while moving west is interesting.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#4 Postby LaBreeze » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:58 am

:fishing:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#5 Postby chaser1 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:49 am

Okay folks, I'm not suggesting that 96L is suddenly gonna fool everyone and make it all the way west to Houston....., but look where the models have initialized the system, and then take a close look at the "Shortwave IR satellite (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html); looks to me as if it has come off the coast a bit to the south at 13.8N and 17.8W and presently moving at 270 (or maybe even a hair south of due west?)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#6 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:50 am

tolakram wrote:GFS 18Z run, vorticity. Notice how it gets hung up around 165 hours and moves west?

[ url]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082918/gfsfull_pres_wind_atltropics.html[/url]

At the end of high resolution mode it shoots out NE, which is a likely solution, but strengthening while moving west is interesting.

[ img]http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/1404/i2oi.png[/img]


Let it spin around the rack up the ACE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:52 am

tolakram wrote:GFS 18Z run, vorticity. Notice how it gets hung up around 165 hours and moves west?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082918/gfsfull_pres_wind_atltropics.html

At the end of high resolution mode it shoots out NE, which is a likely solution, but strengthening while moving west is interesting.

Image


North of 25N, shear is lower and instability better.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#8 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:49 am

12z GFS totally drops it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#9 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 30, 2013 2:53 pm

supercane4867 wrote:12z GFS totally drops it



not a surprise. some very dry air is beginning to engulf it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:24 pm

New plots at 18z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2017 UTC FRI AUG 30 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962013) 20130830 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130830 1800 130831 0600 130831 1800 130901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 16.0W 14.0N 17.2W 14.8N 19.4W 15.9N 22.3W
BAMD 13.6N 16.0W 14.0N 18.3W 14.4N 21.0W 15.1N 23.9W
BAMM 13.6N 16.0W 14.1N 17.7W 15.1N 20.3W 16.2N 23.5W
LBAR 13.6N 16.0W 13.9N 18.0W 14.5N 20.8W 15.1N 23.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130901 1800 130902 1800 130903 1800 130904 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 25.9W 19.9N 33.6W 23.3N 40.8W 26.4N 46.5W
BAMD 16.0N 27.1W 18.4N 33.2W 23.6N 37.9W 29.4N 39.3W
BAMM 17.7N 27.3W 21.1N 34.3W 26.0N 40.0W 29.9N 43.2W
LBAR 15.9N 27.2W 17.9N 34.0W 22.1N 39.4W 27.3N 46.3W
SHIP 42KTS 45KTS 42KTS 44KTS
DSHP 44KTS 46KTS 43KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 16.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 14.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 12.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:26 pm

supercane4867 wrote:12z GFS totally drops it



The 12z GFS did not drop development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#12 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:39 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:12z GFS totally drops it



The 12z GFS did not drop development.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr
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#13 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:39 pm

18Z GFS abandoned development
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#14 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:52 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:12z GFS totally drops it



The 12z GFS did not drop development.


Well then perhaps you can show us where the gfs still has it because I'm either looking at the totally wrong location or can't read maps because I didn't see it on the 12z or 18z runs .
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#15 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:01 pm

i dont even think the cmc develops it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:56 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962013) 20130831 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130831 0000 130831 1200 130901 0000 130901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 16.7W 14.6N 18.2W 15.7N 20.8W 17.1N 24.4W
BAMD 14.1N 16.7W 14.6N 19.4W 15.2N 22.4W 15.8N 25.6W
BAMM 14.1N 16.7W 14.8N 18.8W 15.8N 21.7W 17.0N 25.4W
LBAR 14.1N 16.7W 14.5N 18.8W 15.2N 21.7W 15.9N 24.9W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 44KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130902 0000 130903 0000 130904 0000 130905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 28.5W 23.2N 36.1W 28.2N 41.6W 31.9N 42.5W
BAMD 16.6N 28.9W 19.1N 34.8W 24.3N 39.7W 29.2N 41.9W
BAMM 18.5N 29.2W 22.4N 35.8W 27.5N 40.8W 31.0N 42.1W
LBAR 16.6N 28.2W 19.0N 34.7W 23.4N 40.2W 26.3N 47.0W
SHIP 48KTS 48KTS 43KTS 43KTS
DSHP 51KTS 51KTS 46KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 16.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 15.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 14.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re:

#17 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 30, 2013 9:03 pm

Alyono wrote:18Z GFS abandoned development

Here we go again with the GFS...

Several days of promising runs for some development in the short to medium term.

Now no development and completely POOFs the system by 120 hours... :roll:

:blowup:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#18 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 9:10 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:12z GFS totally drops it



The 12z GFS did not drop development.


Well then perhaps you can show us where the gfs still has it because I'm either looking at the totally wrong location or can't read maps because I didn't see it on the 12z or 18z runs .



[url]
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gf ... ip_p24.gif [/url]
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Re: Re:

#19 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Alyono wrote:18Z GFS abandoned development

Here we go again with the GFS...

Several days of promising runs for some development in the short to medium term.

Now no development and completely POOFs the system by 120 hours... :roll:

:blowup:


As par the course for this season.
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