ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Hammy]

Convection collapsing as it moves over water.

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc13/ATL/96L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km/20130830.0700.msg3.x.ir1km.96LINVEST.25kts-NAmb-150N-160W.100pc.jpg

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IS MOVING THROUGH AFRICA...FROM MAURITANIA
TO SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU. IT IS ALONG 15W/16W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO
10N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE NEARS
THAT AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...AFTER THAT TIME. THE SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Update

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel

Aug 30, 2013 6:37 am ET

- Invest 96-L rolling off the coast of Africa and may develop

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

INVEST 96-L

A large complex of thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave (Invest 96-L) is rolling off the coast of Africa. As with Fernand last weekend and the central Atlantic disturbance earlier this week, the low pressure area is benefiting from some enhanced spin at the lower-levels of the atmosphere. The big question once it emerges over the ocean Friday is how much thunderstorm activity remains by the weekend. Thunderstorm clusters often weaken upon transitioning from the warm continent to open waters, but these disturbances can then recharge as they move westward. This is where systems have struggled this season. Nevertheless models indicate slow development with 96-L over the next few days as it moves generally toward the west-northwest.

[cycloneye]

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN AND IT IS STILL LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LOW MOVES BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND...60 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY BRING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

[chaser1]

So, let me get this right......96L has a "floater" over it, and it hasn't even emerged over water?? I don't think i've seen that. Better yet, conditions are fairly good and there are a 40% chance of development over the first 48 hours, but then conditions are forecast to become "LESS" favorable and there is an increased 60% chance of development thereafter????????????? Um, lets go back to the old TWO's please LOL

[chaser1]

Here's another one perhaps for the record books. How many times in history, have the Cape Verde Islands had Tropical Storm Warnings MORE TIMES than the Lesser/Greater Antilles?? Odd year. Hurricane Chasers might have to book a flight to the Azores if they want to witness high winds anytime soon

[wxman57]

So, let me get this right......96L has a "floater" over it, and it hasn't even emerged over water?? I don't think i've seen that. Better yet, conditions are fairly good and there are a 40% chance of development over the first 48 hours, but then conditions are forecast to become "LESS" favorable and there is an increased 60% chance of development thereafter????????????? Um, lets go back to the old TWO's please LOL

The "less favorable" conditions don't start at the 48-hr point, thus the higher development chances just beyond 48 hrs. All this fuss over a 5-day outlook. This is something we've been doing for decades in the private industry.

[tolakram]

12Z image



from: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/NATURALCOLOR/FULLRESOLUTION/index.htm

[stauglocal]

Finally!!! An invest in the Atlantic, oh wait, in Africa. Let's hope this stays together once it hits the water, so at least we have something to track.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Read in a hurricane track tweet that one of the models sends this into Nova Scotia

[fci]

So, let me get this right......96L has a "floater" over it, and it hasn't even emerged over water?? I don't think i've seen that. Better yet, conditions are fairly good and there are a 40% chance of development over the first 48 hours, but then conditions are forecast to become "LESS" favorable and there is an increased 60% chance of development thereafter????????????? Um, lets go back to the old TWO's please LOL

I respectfully, wholeheartedly; disagree with your view of the TWO with 48 hour probability and 5 day probability.
Wxman already noted that the timing is the reason the number goes up and then down with 96L

I like that the NHC now discusses systems that are not yet Invests but now appear on their outlook due to "potential" development up to 5 days out.
My feeling has always been, the more information the better!
Going back to the old TWO would just be a huge step backwards from where we have advanced.

I LOVE the new TWO and information for up to 5 days.

[cycloneye]

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER
THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2
OR 3 DAYS.

[ninel conde]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

i dont think it will last too long. some very dry air is beginning to surround it.

[Hammy]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

i dont think it will last too long. some very dry air is beginning to surround it.

The dry air is still well to the north. My concern for development or not is that it seems to just be sitting over the West African coast; it looks like a post-landfall tropical depression or storm and if it doesn't emerge soon, it could be over before it begins.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WEST AFRICA...FROM MAURITANIA
TO SENEGAL TO S OF GUINEA-BISSAU. THE 30/1200 UTC POSITION
REMAINS ALONG 15W/16W BASED ON THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N15W ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 16W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER S FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 9W-18W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT
TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WHETHER THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
NOT...IT WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

[Sanibel]

Now this one looks like it is biting the dust.

[cycloneye]

50%/60%

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

[ninel conde]

50%/60%

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

my own personal opinion is this is way too high.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2013083100, , BEST, 0, 141N, 167W, 30, 1008, LO

[Zanthe]

my own personal opinion is this is way too high.

Why do you say that, ninel?