Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[ninel conde]

the cmc is acting as if the big trof isnt even in the west atlantic.

[tolakram]

According to that model study posted earlier;

The Canadian is 12% less reliable than the GFS. It has the highest chance of accurate detection of any model at 23%, but 42% of its storms were bogus. So it's the opposite of the euro. When the season is active and everything develops the Canadian looks like the best model.

[OuterBanker]

To be honest, the Canadian is nothing but for entertainment. This year has really been odd. The fact that we have 28 pages on a wave that hasn't developed and probably won't develop in late August is an indication of just how odd it is. The Canadian is all we have.

[cycloneye]

0%-10%. Something new in wording.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND DRY AIR ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[SFLcane]

0%-10%. Something new in wording.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND DRY AIR ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Yea luis thats rather interesting..maybe the canadian is on to something. These weak waves always concern me cause they can be trouble if they find favorable conditions close to home.

[CrazyC83]

0%-10%. Something new in wording.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND DRY AIR ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Yea luis thats rather interesting..maybe the canadian is on to something. These weak waves always concern me cause they can be trouble if they find favorable conditions close to home.

Through the Caribbean Sea? I thought it wanted to develop the storm farther north? Unless a strong trough is coming all the way down, but in early September?

[cycloneye]

Another video by Levi Cowan about this wave.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... e-watched/

[Alyono]

yet the chance of development through 5 days was decreased

As I said, its a dead wave

[SFLcane]

yet the chance of development through 5 days was decreased

As I said, its a dead wave

With all due respect its under a high shear environment for the time being but weak waves like this during the peak should always be watched especially if tpc notes conditions ahead could be less hostile. In terms of your comment about no majors its possible but there is plenty of time for things to get really busy out there.

seasons since '60 got 1st cane in September. Ended strong
02: 12T, 4H, 2M
01: 15T, 9H, 4M
88: 12T, 5H, 3M
84: 13T, 5H, 1M
67: 6T, 5H, 1M

[Alyono]

yet the chance of development through 5 days was decreased

As I said, its a dead wave

With all due respect its under a high shear environment for the time being but weak waves like this during the peak should always be watched especially if tpc notes conditions ahead could be less hostile. In terms of your comment about no majors its possible but there is plenty of time for things to get really busy out there.

seasons since '60 got 1st cane in September. Ended strong
02: 12T, 4H, 2M
01: 15T, 9H, 4M
88: 12T, 5H, 3M
84: 13T, 5H, 1M
67: 6T, 5H, 1M

if conditions were going to become favorable, then why were the probabilities decreased?

Perhaps the conditions will be slightly more favorable than now, yet still be very unfavorable

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

I think this might become humberto In the Caribbean- still has potential. Remember Ophelia?

[CrazyC83]

So the CMC model develops this (big time), do any others?

[Alyono]

NAVGEM dropped it

It is only the CMC... and the CMC is dead wrong with the upper pattern

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N51W TO 19N50W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A WEAK AND BROAD 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N51W THAT LACKS CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ACTIVE
CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
THE NE AS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 42W-50W IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.

[ROCK]

actually the CMC, UKMET, NAM still show it...the EURO still shows vort moving above the islands towards the bahamas. It dead when it either moves into the EPAC or the LLC completely opens up and is devoid of convection.

18Z NAM....1002MB

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z NAM at 84 hrs

[Hurricaneman]

The difference between the 18zGFS and previous runs is that if forms a low between Cuba and Hispaniola so that may be something to keep an eye on

the 0zGFS closes off a weak low near Barbados at 36hrs, definitely moving towards development and promptly kills the low at 39hrs

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[tailgater]

So Alyono I take it from your 12 previous post you're not sold on this pouch developing . sorry man i couldn't help it. I've got to admit it's looking pretty pitful tonite.

[Alyono]

NAM is no more reliable than the CMC, however. Over aggressive parameterization scheme

[floridasun78]

so models dont think have chance in Caribbean but nhc think it do so maybe the nhc private models do see sme thing with this area in carribbean