NE Gulf........Again

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Dean4Storms
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NE Gulf........Again

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 31, 2013 7:55 am

We've got a healthy MLC south of Mobile this morning moving WSW. Looks healthy on satellite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#2 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 8:26 am

Pressures have been rising in the area and there are no signs of any surface feature. However, it was a system like this which developed into Alicia in 1983. Needs to be monitored.
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#3 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Aug 31, 2013 8:28 am

Yep I just checked out the satellite and it does look interesting. This is the time of year where a storm complex can become tropical. Not saying it will but something to watch.
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#4 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Aug 31, 2013 8:29 am

Well stated Wxman57.
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#5 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 31, 2013 8:45 am

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#6 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 31, 2013 8:49 am

I seem to remember a model developing this along this trough and taking it west a good week to a week and a half ago. Might have been the GEM.
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#7 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 31, 2013 9:13 am

I will be checking buoys throughout the day....this looks very interesting....
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#8 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 31, 2013 9:19 am

This must of been what I saw from the GEM.... Was a couple days fast with it.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013082212/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#9 Postby trave2 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 9:36 am

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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#10 Postby Nikki » Sat Aug 31, 2013 9:44 am

It is a very interesting feature to say the least.
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#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 9:59 am

Better chance than 96L IMO. At least it has a favorable environment, apart from land interaction.
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#12 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:21 am

Ugh!! Quit saying the A word!! :cheesy: Definitely has my attention. Buoy watch in effect for sure!!
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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:30 am

Land interaction indeed is the key limiting factor. Shear and dry air don't seem to be issues, and instability is greater there than in the MDR. It might be like Fernand that tries to develop fast...we'll see. It has a much better chance than 96L or anything in the deep tropics IMO...
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#14 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:33 am

Status: Blob Watch Alert

WV view

Image

Most short range guidance poofs it later today, we'll see how things go.
Last edited by Ntxw on Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:35 am

There should be at least a code yellow on that since it has been persistant...
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Re:

#16 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:53 am

CrazyC83 wrote:There should be at least a code yellow on that since it has been persistant...

Better chance than 25L in the next 48hrs :lol:
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#17 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:16 am

vbhoutex wrote:Ugh!! Quit saying the A word!! :cheesy: Definitely has my attention. Buoy watch in effect for sure!!

1st buoy watch and radar check done. ABSOLUTELY NO INDICATION of anything at the surface. Am I discounting it? Heck no!! I went through Alicia from her inception off of NW FL(where we were visiting) through her landfall. NOT a pleasant experience!
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#18 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:17 am

wxman57 wrote:Pressures have been rising in the area and there are no signs of any surface feature. However, it was a system like this which developed into Alicia in 1983. Needs to be monitored.


Agreed. Alicia developed further south in the Gulf of Mexico from the same kind of system.
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Re: NE Gulf........Again

#19 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:45 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Pressures have been rising in the area and there are no signs of any surface feature. However, it was a system like this which developed into Alicia in 1983. Needs to be monitored.


Agreed. Alicia developed further south in the Gulf of Mexico from the same kind of system.

I remember all too well!!
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#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:25 pm

If this persists, maybe 98L out of this?
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