ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
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invest_al972013.invest
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201308311643
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013083112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013
AL, 97, 2013083012, , BEST, 0, 145N, 485W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2013083018, , BEST, 0, 147N, 502W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2013083100, , BEST, 0, 148N, 513W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2013083106, , BEST, 0, 149N, 526W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2013083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 540W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this wave/pouch 25L.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115483&hilit=&start=0

[Fego]

Really? I don't see it in the Navy page. Well, that's a interesting development.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2506

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.
Jeff Masters

[Fego]

Now has been updated.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[HurricaneDREW92]

Wooooow. Development chances probably going up to at least 10/20% at next TWO. Wow

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Loop



WRF Model @ 72hrs


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SFLcane]

[Fego]

Convection seems to be East of the Low.

[Sanibel]

You have different scales working here. At this time of year a wave that reconvects in this area is normally promising, however this year has been harsh on development. The season is ripe and due, yet the environmental factors like shear and dry air also apply. Anyone's guess in my opinion. It still looks on the weak side.

[JonathanBelles]

Gonzo is flying a tail doppler and dropsonde mission in newly designated Invest 97L east of the Lesser Antilles. Mainly a broad circulation in the tropical wave 450 miles east of Lesser Antilles.

[ROCK]

if this does develop the CMC just destroyed the GFS in TC genesis......for that matter the NAM even showed development.....

but since its dead I am going back to watching football!!!


this also wouldnt look good on the NHC since they had this at 10% for some time now....personally the percentages are worthless, IMO..this season is proving why...

[abajan]

I'm experiencing heavy rain in the southwest of the island. Also, Grantley Adams Airport has been reporting westerly winds since 11:00 AM: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[tailgater]

Some consistant T-storm activity near the center is about all it would take to reach TD status IMHO.

[gatorcane]

Hmmm...definitely starting to look a little better. Vigorous circulation and convection on the increase though well NE of the center. Definitely invest-worthy...after all it is the time of year everything needs to be watched. All this invest needs is a window of opportunity of favorable upper-level conditions.

[ROCK]

Some consistant T-storm activity near the center is about all it would take to reach TD status IMHO.

agree....looks real good...and I am rooting for it...sorry PR folks..

has a anticyclone sitting over it...shear wont be that much of a problem...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[SFLcane]

Floater..

[abajan]

Incidentally, the radar imagery at http://www.barbadosweather.org/ is outdated. It's been showing the same loop for the last day or so.

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311726
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER WATER NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS
DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED
TODAY BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

As the 5AM weather forecast, the 11am has the same philosophy... Our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe continues to emphasizes on the fact that : " Trade winds are low to moderate becoming more moist and unstable at the front of an active tropical wave. The weather conditions are expected to be bad until the middle of next week and a vigilance is under consideration. Follow carefully our next weather forecasts".

Maybe wet weather conditions could spread on the Leewards beginning tommorow and stall till mid-week. Let's continue to keep an eye on that. I will keep you informed if anything happens from that.
Gustywind.

[gatorcane]

Here is the VIS floater of 97L:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-vis-long.html

Convection is tryng to build closer to the center of the broad circulation though as NHC states, conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development until this wave gets to the Western Caribbean where they may become more favorable: