EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane_Luis]

For a Depression, Its not looking bad, I've seen worse.

[RL3AO]

Easily looks like a TS based on Dvorak.

EDIT: SSD agrees. Just being limited by constraints.



H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT TO LESS
THAN T2.5 WITHIN 24 HOURS OF INITIAL CLASSIFICATION. .

[cycloneye]

18z Best track up to 40kts.

EP, 11, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1163W, 40, 1005, TS

[supercane4867]

Definitely the best TD I've seen

[Kingarabian]

Definitely the best TD I've seen

Four hour old SSMI pass.

But um. Nice eye?

[RL3AO]

Definitely the best TD I've seen

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/fYo60Xc.jpg[/img]

Almost looks like a full wrap on the band...

[Kingarabian]

Definitely the best TD I've seen

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/fYo60Xc.jpg[/img]

Almost looks like a full wrap on the band...

I'd have to say this is more than a 40kt system.

[Kingarabian]

Look at that!

I know there isn't much at the surface but that's as clear as they've been this year. I doubt that's dry air being entrained into the COC/LLC as it's suited in a pretty moist environment.

[CrazyC83]

Surprised they never put out a Special Advisory there...

[Kingarabian]

EP 11 201308311529 30 SSMS C 1890N 11620W 2 2 2 NHC CWL SSMS 2 TWO-THIRDS EYEWALL? 89 GHZ

[Kingarabian]

Latest AMSUB pass.

[Kingarabian]

Got this from Wunderground lol:

"POST SEASON ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BRIEFLY STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT AROUND 19Z 31 AUGUST"

I could imagine the next discussion being like this:

MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 11E HAS DEVELOPED AN EYEWALL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW 11E HAVING A WELL DEFINED EYE... BASED ON THESE TWO NEW DEVELOPMENTS... WE ARE UPGRADING 11E TO A TROPICAL STORM... AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE

[hurricanes1234]

What? Is that an eye? What are the chances of this storm becoming like Daniel last year or Henriette this year, in other words, a storm that defies forecasts and intensifies?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Got this from Wunderground lol:

"POST SEASON ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BRIEFLY STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT AROUND 19Z 31 AUGUST"

I could imagine the next discussion being like this:

MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 11E HAS DEVELOPED AN EYEWALL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW 11E HAVING A WELL DEFINED EYE... BASED ON THESE TWO NEW DEVELOPMENTS... WE ARE UPGRADING 11E TO A TROPICAL STORM... AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE

They won't call it "11E" probs.

[Yellow Evan]

What? Is that an eye? What are the chances of this storm becoming like Daniel last year or Henriette this year, in other words, a storm that defies forecasts and intensifies?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, but a hurricane like Daniel 12 is unlikely IMO. It may or may not be like Barbara 13 IMO intensity-wise.

[galaxy401]

Well this is surprising. We underestimated it when it was developing and same thing now. Probably has been rapidly intensifying since yesterday.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...DEPRESSION HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
KIKO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 116.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO. A RAGGED EYE HAS
INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS
ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT. EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45
KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED
UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.

THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR
SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH
AS IT DID. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED
TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC. COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH
STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[hurricanes1234]

Oh my gosh! Rapid jump of 25 mph from 35 mph to 60 mph in just 6 hours! I would expect continued intensification, and possibly a hurricane! And it's safe to say it's a nice storm, considering it is in open waters!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Oh my gosh! Rapid jump of 25 mph from 35 mph to 60 mph in just 6 hours! I would expect continued intensification, and possibly a hurricane! And it's safe to say it's a nice storm, considering it is in open waters!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It was likely a TS at 15z and maybe even 9z. This honestly is not all that rare, it's only 20 knts, I've seen better things happen.