ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

12Z Models are still in very good agreement on the deepening upper-level trof across the northern Gulf this coming week. Such a trof would provide quite a barrier for the NW Gulf of Mexico. Anything moving toward the southern Gulf would get turned north and northeast. For now, I'm seeing no threat to TX/LA if this develops. Florida & Bahamas would be the target.

[HurricaneDREW92]

12Z Models are still in very good agreement on the deepening upper-level trof across the northern Gulf this coming week. Such a trof would provide quite a barrier for the NW Gulf of Mexico. Anything moving toward the southern Gulf would get turned north and northeast. For now, I'm seeing no threat to TX/LA if this develops. Florida & Bahamas would be the target.

Carolinas?

[hurricanetrack]

Don't know what to think about 500mb pattern. GFS shows trough dig in and then quickly exits all within 5 days' time. This is not November where they dig and heights fall all the way to Caymans.

[stormlover2013]

Something has to develop first, we always here it's going here and it's going there nothing has even developed yet.

[wxman57]

12Z Models are still in very good agreement on the deepening upper-level trof across the northern Gulf this coming week. Such a trof would provide quite a barrier for the NW Gulf of Mexico. Anything moving toward the southern Gulf would get turned north and northeast. For now, I'm seeing no threat to TX/LA if this develops. Florida & Bahamas would be the target.

Carolinas?

Upper-level trof axis progged to extend from Carolinas' coast to the central Gulf in 5-6 days. That would indicate a track east of north if it crosses Cuba, possibly NE and away from East U.S. Coast.

[Hammy]

Don't know what to think about 500mb pattern. GFS shows trough dig in and then quickly exits all within 5 days' time. This is not November where they dig and heights fall all the way to Caymans.

Everything else has defied conventional wisdom this year, so why not this?

Quite interesting though that the movement is only 7kts, it looks like the eastward convection is moving faster, so it may catch up to the circulation by this time tomorrow.

[ninel conde]

Don't know what to think about 500mb pattern. GFS shows trough dig in and then quickly exits all within 5 days' time. This is not November where they dig and heights fall all the way to Caymans.

maybe thats why the GFS doesnt show anything developing. wasnt there another invest a few weeks back headed to the GOM at the same time a huge trof was digging into the GOM?

[cycloneye]

Outflow improving.

[gatorcane]

12Z Models are still in very good agreement on the deepening upper-level trof across the northern Gulf this coming week. Such a trof would provide quite a barrier for the NW Gulf of Mexico. Anything moving toward the southern Gulf would get turned north and northeast. For now, I'm seeing no threat to TX/LA if this develops. Florida & Bahamas would be the target.

Carolinas?

Upper-level trof axis progged to extend from Carolinas' coast to the central Gulf in 5-6 days. That would indicate a track east of north if it crosses Cuba, possibly NE and away from East U.S. Coast.

Normally I would post this in the models thread but here is an image that can help you understand what WxMan57 is saying about the steering flow that is setting up (Wxman57 please correct me if I am wrong). Take a look at the 500MB 12Z GFS image below for this coming weekend. Look at the big amplified trough over Eastern Canada with an axis that extends all the way SW into the Northern Gulf. There is also a ridge centered over Hispaniola area with clockwise flow. That kind of setup would allow a North then NE hook from anything that gets going in the Western or West-Central Caribbean:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

gotcha hopefully that is the case

[ninel conde]

i was trying to quote someone else and cant delete it

[HurricaneDREW92]

Alright Im gonna pull the gun and say this gets called a TC at 11pm
Reasoning is persistant convection, west winds and a consolidating center + DMAX

[lester]

Alright Im gonna pull the gun and say this gets called a TC at 11pm

I doubt it with only a 40% chance.

[Florida1118]

Alright Im gonna pull the gun and say this gets called a TC at 11pm

I doubt it with only a 40% chance.

And the NHC likes visuals or RECON before an upgrade, which they wont have either at 11pm.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Alright Im gonna pull the gun and say this gets called a TC at 11pm
Reasoning is persistant convection, west winds and a consolidating center + DMAX

[Javlin]

Well as with anything its all about timing and @7kts ATTM not going anywhere fast.That almost looks like the biggest trof yet this year still remains to be seen how deep S it goes.

[Hammy]

Alright Im gonna pull the gun and say this gets called a TC at 11pm

I doubt it with only a 40% chance.

Not saying it will happen but I've seen it go from 30% to development before in a few hours.

[MGC]

97L looks to be getting its act together this afternoon. Just this morning I was trying to remember the last time there was no tropical cyclone over Labor Day weekend. 97L looks to be in a fairly good upper level environment....those two ULL look to be far enough away so shear should not be a significant issue. The dry air the NHC mentioned should not be an issue either, just look how fast convection has expanded today. IMO, the chances of 48 hour development are greater than the 40% the NHC is currently forecasting. If a depression does form soon there is nothing but warm water ahead of it so I think odds are excellent for our first Atlantic hurricane to form this week.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Alright Im gonna pull the gun and say this gets called a TC at 11pm

I doubt it with only a 40% chance.

And the NHC likes visuals or RECON before an upgrade, which they wont have either at 11pm.

You have the data from land and buoys dont know bout ASCAT and sometimes you just have to upgrade based on this data alone.

[Javlin]

Sure does look like we have some nice cells developing between 3-6 o'clock.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html