ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Afternoon AFD of San Juan NWS about effects from 97L in PR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE CIRCULATING
AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AT 700 MB WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PUERTO RICO.

ON TUESDAY THE MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME MODELS
DO NOT SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POSSIBILITY. NEVERTHELESS...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD BE ITS SEED IS QUITE ELONGATED AT THIS
TIME AND IT IS ENTERING AN AREA THAT TYPICALLY WORKS AGAINST SUCH
FORMATION. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF FORECASTERS
HERE...AND AT THE HURRICANE CENTER...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS AND SHOW A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PASSING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO
MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 850 MB WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL
MOIST FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND SO NOW
EXPECT BEST RAINS ON TUESDAY. NOT WITHSTANDING...THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TOO PUT OUT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS PATH IF IT
DOES DEVELOP. WE WILL RE- EVALUATE THIS SITUATION ON MONDAY AND
DECIDE IF SUFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING.
WOULD EXPECT MANY AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SEAS OF OVER 5 FEET
WERE SEEN FOR A WHILE AT BUOY 42060 SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST...BUT CURRENTLY
HOLDING WINDS AT OR BELOW 21 KNOTS. SHOULD ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
BE OBSERVED WITH INVEST 97L...THE WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE
CARIBBEAN...WILL HAVE TO PUT UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 39m

WEST winds at Barbados, which is a wind seen rarely in summer, indicates to me a tropical cyclone is likely forming

JB is bullish. i see the upper air as too chaotic. maybe it can become a weak TS, but i dont see things as very favorable. i do see flooding as a possibility should the convection remain intact.

[gatorcane]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 39m

WEST winds at Barbados, which is a wind seen rarely in summer, indicates to me a tropical cyclone is likely forming

JB is bullish. i see the upper air as too chaotic. maybe it can become a weak TS, but i dont see things as very favorable. i do see flooding as a possibility should the convection remain intact.

Ninel, check the models thread as all the available intensity guidance ramps this system up with LGEM showing a CAT 3.

Thoughts?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression Seven in next Advisory?

Invest 97L

[Comanche]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 39m

WEST winds at Barbados, which is a wind seen rarely in summer, indicates to me a tropical cyclone is likely forming

JB is bullish. i see the upper air as too chaotic. maybe it can become a weak TS, but i dont see things as very favorable. i do see flooding as a possibility should the convection remain intact.

Since your quoting JB, I'll throw in one of his on this system- Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 23m

Cant just yell "shear" at every west wind in tropics. Upper low to the north helping ventilate system near Caribbean

[galaxy401]

Looking better and better. Still think this won't get upgraded until tomorrow. Maybe tonight.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I wonder just for the sake of the islands, if they can still potentially upgrade this to a depression by the end of the day based on Satellite images? I mean, just for the sake of the islands.....Not saying they should jump the gun, but wondering if they might error on the side of caution?

[gatorcane]

Looking pretty good, animated GIF below:

[Alyono]

Thinking the center is about 2 degrees west of where NHC put it... maybe near 15N and 61.5W

[cycloneye]

Barbados at 3 PM AST has NNW wind.

3:00 PM 82.4 °F 94.0 °F 80.6 °F 94% 29.80 in 6.2 mi NNW 6.9 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy

[NDG]

Barbados has now reported NW winds for the last couple of hours, so perhaps a surface circulation is now trying to to form closer to mid level circulation and deeper convection.

[CrazyC83]

Is a single west wind report enough to initiate advisories though?

[storm4u]

looking good but not depression worthy yet

[ScottNAtlanta]

When I looked at this at 10am there were 3 noticeable centers of rotation widely spread out. When you look at it now, there is really only one, and that one is not nearly as stretched out as it was earlier. I think NHC is going to have to make some sort of call here shortly because of proximity to the islands. The trend is definitely towards consolidation. It looks better each time I look at it

[HurricaneDREW92]

Is a single west wind report enough to initiate advisories though?

My two cents on TC formation
5pm: 30% upgrade
11pm: 60% upgrade
5am: 80% upgrade
11am 90+% upgrade

[psyclone]

Hmm, I wonder just for the sake of the islands, if they can still potentially upgrade this to a depression by the end of the day based on Satellite images? I mean, just for the sake of the islands.....Not saying they should jump the gun, but wondering if they might error on the side of caution?

I wonder if it really even matters. The reality is that there's very little difference, sensible wx-wise, between a vigorous tropical disturbance, a tropical depression or even a minimal tropical storm. they all do about the same thing: squally, gusty showers and bursts of heavy rain.

[RL3AO]

Looks to be a consolidating system, but it still has some work to do. Maybe by tomorrow morning.

[pgoss11]

Am I wrong or could this be one large system when it consolidates?

[HurricaneDREW92]

Hmm, I wonder just for the sake of the islands, if they can still potentially upgrade this to a depression by the end of the day based on Satellite images? I mean, just for the sake of the islands.....Not saying they should jump the gun, but wondering if they might error on the side of caution?

I wonder if it really even matters. The reality is that there's very little difference, sensible wx-wise, between a vigorous tropical disturbance, a tropical depression or even a minimal tropical storm. they all do about the same thing: squally, gusty showers and bursts of heavy rain.

Its proven people generally pay more attention to terms. Sandy anyone? so a strengthening TS would get much more attention than a T-Wave

['CaneFreak]

No. I doubt they will upgrade it until at least tomorrow. The convection needs to persist for at least another 12 hours or so. Looking good though. An upgrade at 5 am/11 am tomorrow is possible IF the convection persists and IF we can confirm via satellite, surface obs, and/or recon that this definitely has a closed low level circulation.

Is a single west wind report enough to initiate advisories though?