ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z Track and Intensity Guidance, LGEM has a CAT 3:

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

I am close to giving the CMC and NAM kudos for sniffing out what we are seeing today a few days ago while the GFS and ECMWF showed nothing and continue to show no development even still.

Not sure the last time I have seen these models outperform the normally reliable GFS and ECMWF. Will wait a little longer to see if this system can consolidate as fast as the CMC is showing.

12Z CMC at 144 hours shows the system just south of Cuba heading North:

[psyclone]

That CMC track is consistent with 57's assertion of a north and northeast hook. that looks to keep the system well away from even florida let alone the gulf. interesting times ahead with what would seem to be an anomalously strong and deep trough giving a system in the Caribbean the boot.

[caneman]

That CMC track is consistent with 57's assertion of a north and northeast hook. that looks to keep the system well away from even florida let alone the gulf. interesting times ahead with what would seem to be an anomalously strong and deep trough giving a system in the Caribbean the boot.

That track is not well away from Florida. If it starts to head due N it will come up the east side of Florida if I'm reading it right. So, if it heads just 100 - 200 miles further West - Florida would be in the bullseye.

[caneman]

I am close to giving the CMC and NAM kudos for sniffing out what we are seeing today a few days ago while the GFS and ECMWF showed nothing and continue to show no development even still.

Not sure the last time I have seen these models outperform the normally reliable GFS and ECMWF. Will wait a little longer to see if this system can consolidate as fast as the CMC is showing.

12Z CMC at 144 hours shows the system just south of Cuba heading North:

Sure looks to be ramping up - could be a score for CMC

[gatorcane]

That CMC track is consistent with 57's assertion of a north and northeast hook. that looks to keep the system well away from even florida let alone the gulf. interesting times ahead with what would seem to be an anomalously strong and deep trough giving a system in the Caribbean the boot.

That track is not well away from Florida. If it starts to head due N it will come up the east side of Florida if I'm reading it right. So, if it heads just 100 - 200 miles further West - Florida would be in the bullseye.

To clarify, WxMan57's assertion indicated Florida and the Bahamas would be the target. His quote from a little while ago below:

12Z Models are still in very good agreement on the deepening upper-level trof across the northern Gulf this coming week. Such a trof would provide quite a barrier for the NW Gulf of Mexico. Anything moving toward the southern Gulf would get turned north and northeast. For now, I'm seeing no threat to TX/LA if this develops. Florida & Bahamas would be the target.

Makes sense given the upper-air pattern I see the models are developing later this week. Some kind of turn north then NNE in the Central or Western Caribbean seems possible.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

You are correct...I guess I was thinking of the eastern side of that envelope (which is what the CMC) seemed to imply... could keep florida out of contention while eastern or central cuba and the Bahamas deal with the system. it just seems like a very late season scenario (ala michelle 2001). even a hit to florida from the south would be very October-esque. as is usually the case it's all very interesting.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Like I said last night, looking at the models that were developing this, Invest97l was never going to be a GOM storm. Rather an East Coast, including Florida, threat.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

12Z UK has this further south now, with another on it's heals at 5 days.

[Alyono]

That CMC track is consistent with 57's assertion of a north and northeast hook. that looks to keep the system well away from even florida let alone the gulf. interesting times ahead with what would seem to be an anomalously strong and deep trough giving a system in the Caribbean the boot.

As I said, the CMC track is bogus because of the phantom cyclone so close to the NE

[CYCLONE MIKE]

While I don't usually agree with the models days out, I must say I don't think this will be a gulf issue due to the trough. The persistence and strength of the troughs this summer give me no reason to not believe this one will not be just as strong and dig just as deep. Another front is forecast to stall and dissipate over south Louisiana Wednesday/Thursday so you know the steering flow will be out of the sw.

[BigB0882]

I can see this getting into the Gulf if it takes a little longer to form than these models are thinking. It may not be deep into the Gulf but perhaps the far Eastern Gulf. Who knows, though, that trough may be over done by the models or the front wont make it down as far. I don't believe anything I see this season, lol

[BigB0882]

That CMC track is consistent with 57's assertion of a north and northeast hook. that looks to keep the system well away from even florida let alone the gulf. interesting times ahead with what would seem to be an anomalously strong and deep trough giving a system in the Caribbean the boot.

As I said, the CMC track is bogus because of the phantom cyclone so close to the NE

I was about to ask about this. Is that a complete mess up by the CMC or will there be a feature there that could potentially develop? It seems way too close to 97L but I don't know how that works.

[blp]

Will the 18z GFS finally bite and show this feature or will it lay dormant? It certainly has been having a tough stretch lately.

[gatorcane]

That CMC track is consistent with 57's assertion of a north and northeast hook. that looks to keep the system well away from even florida let alone the gulf. interesting times ahead with what would seem to be an anomalously strong and deep trough giving a system in the Caribbean the boot.

As I said, the CMC track is bogus because of the phantom cyclone so close to the NE

Interesting that the UKMET is now showing another system just a little to the east of invest possibly developing in a few days. The CMC is developing the same system but recurves it into the Bahamas. They are both developing the area in the ITCZ between 40W and 50W.

[Riptide]

18z GFS is showing more substantial 850mb vorticity but so far out to 30 hours and no major intensification. Also kind of splits the entire vortex into two pieces. I think the GFS is out to lunch if the system keeps consolidating.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Like I said last night, looking at the models that were developing this, Invest97l was never going to be a GOM storm. Rather an East Coast, including Florida, threat.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No, dont feed my ego

[Riptide]

18z GFS is showing more substantial 850mb vorticity but so far out to 30 hours and no major intensification. Also kind of splits the entire vortex into two pieces. I think the GFS is out to lunch if the system keeps consolidating.

[blp]

The FIM9 is back onboard but seems to develop the eastern wave which goes north of the islands. So we have the UKMET, CMC, NAM, FIM9 and Navgem showing development of either one or two features. The CMC is the most aggressive but it solution of having two features develop is not so far fetched anymore.

The GFS and Euro are