Area of Interest Expected to Form in Eastern Pacific

[hurricanes1234]

This thread is for the area of disturbed weather expected to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. What are the models saying in terms of intensity? A tropical storm? A hurricane? If so, what category?

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM A FEW OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane_Luis]

GFS develops a Depression on September 9th but strengthens a little before weakening.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _epac.html

[galaxy401]

So this looks to be another EPAC system that will just be weak?

[Hurricane_Luis]

So this looks to be another EPAC system that will just be weak?

Maybe, but it was quite far out. (+192 hours). So we'll just have to see.

[hurricanes1234]

I really don't think this would surpass Category 1 strength. How favourable are the conditions in its path?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

GFS develops a Depression on September 9th but strengthens a little before weakening.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _epac.html

That was my first thought before clicking on the thread title, this will be a weak or moderate TS that amounts of nothing.

So this looks to be another EPAC system that will just be weak?

Did you expect anything different?

[galaxy401]

So this looks to be another EPAC system that will just be weak?

Did you expect anything different?

Not until I looked at the models.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS weak

[hurricanes1234]

That was my first thought before clicking on the thread title, this will be a weak or moderate TS that amounts of nothing.

I agree with this statement. If the MJO is in a favourable state, then what's going on?

Did you expect anything different?

Actually, at this point, I would expect that the conditions would be in place. This year must be different...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 99E is here.

[hurricanes1234]

Could someone please lock this thread? Thanks.

[weathernerdguy]

its peak would be 990 mb