ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[Riptide]

Lol, the GFS creates a TD and it crashes into Hispaniola because of the East Coast trough. Mabye jumping on the early formation train, instead of the western carribean.

[Riptide]

North of Haiti on September 6th.

[jinftl]

Folks who live in the Gulf see this making it into the Gulf, folks who live in Florida see the threat towards them, and those up the East Coast see the threat possibly in their direction. When the NHC issues the first 5-day cone, then we can talk actual threat vs. existential 'pick the model run you like best' threat.

[Sanibel]

GFDL drives it into the southern Caribbean by Aruba and then loses it in the west Caribbean.

[Frank P]

Folks who live in the Gulf see this making it into the Gulf, folks who live in Florida see the threat towards them, and those up the East Coast see the threat possibly in their direction. When the NHC issues the first 5-day cone, then we can talk actual threat vs. existential 'pick the model run you like best' threat.

Yep, pretty much as it always is on the board with a developing system... way to early to say where it will actually go... if it ever develops... I think it will only because it's climatologically ripe for something to develop now.. people are just taking their SWAGs at this point... but still fun to read their posts...

[tolakram]

The 12Z GFS shows increased vorticity then completely rips it apart, sending some south and another blob north. Makes no sense to me. it does this all the while predicting fairly low shear in the area in 48 hours. It's as if it's begrudgingly showing there is increased vorticity but the algorithm still insists it will not last.



We shall see.

[Cyclenall]

12Z UK has this further south now, with another on it's heals at 5 days.

I've never seen two TS's or hurricanes at once in the Caribbean, its somewhat of a fantasy for it to occur. Its a question I had for a long time when was the last time 2 systems were in the Caribbean at the same time, I don't know of any.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM has 97L in the NW Caribbean in 144 hours:

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF..

[SFLcane]

18Z GFDL cane approaching southern florida..

[cycloneye]

Yikes!

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC MON SEP 2 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130902 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130902 0000 130902 1200 130903 0000 130903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 60.7W 14.1N 62.2W 14.3N 63.5W 14.6N 65.0W
BAMD 14.0N 60.7W 14.0N 62.4W 14.2N 64.2W 14.5N 66.1W
BAMM 14.0N 60.7W 13.9N 62.2W 14.0N 63.6W 14.2N 65.1W
LBAR 14.0N 60.7W 14.2N 62.8W 14.5N 64.9W 14.9N 67.2W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 57KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130904 0000 130905 0000 130906 0000 130907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 66.5W 17.2N 70.3W 19.4N 74.6W 20.8N 78.1W
BAMD 15.0N 68.1W 16.9N 72.3W 19.0N 76.6W 20.7N 79.8W
BAMM 14.6N 66.8W 16.3N 70.6W 18.2N 74.6W 19.7N 77.8W
LBAR 15.6N 69.5W 18.0N 74.2W 21.0N 78.3W 24.1N 79.9W
SHIP 67KTS 86KTS 96KTS 101KTS
DSHP 67KTS 86KTS 96KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 60.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 59.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 57.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[supercane4867]

LGEM needs to clam down...

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 63 78 94 106 114 115 113

[Hurricaneman]

LGEM needs to clam down...

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 63 78 94 106 114 115 113

These intensity models with this are probably pure bunk

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RL3AO]

You have to take the statistical models with a grain of salt, but they are at least hinting at a fairly favorable environment which is worth taking note of.

[ninel conde]

LGEM needs to clam down...

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 63 78 94 106 114 115 113

These intensity models with this are probably pure bunk

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

complete bunk until the euro and gfs agree that a tropical cyclone will form.

[Alyono]

LGEM needs to clam down...

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 63 78 94 106 114 115 113

These intensity models with this are probably pure bunk

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

complete bunk until the euro and gfs agree that a tropical cyclone will form.

cannot belive I just saw someone say the EC needs to forecast genesis before genesis will occur.

It is the WORST at predicting genesis

That siad, the statistical models assume the system is already a TD... its not

[gatorcane]

00Z Guidance:

[HurricaneDREW92]

00Z Guidance:

LGEM hits cat 4

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

cannot belive I just saw someone say the EC needs to forecast genesis before genesis will occur.

It is the WORST at predicting genesis

That siad, the statistical models assume the system is already a TD... its not

Speaking of which, do you have any specifics about that? I always hear...and say...that the statistical models are run as if a developed tropical cyclone already exists, but why is that? Do the models initialize with a well-defined, closed low-level circulation or something along those lines?