ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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Gustywind
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#381 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:46 am

Tropical Update

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel

Sep 2, 2013 5:28 am ET

:rarrow: http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

- Invest 97-L near the Lesser Antilles still disorganized but slow development possible

- Will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to Leeward and Windward Islands through Tuesday

INVEST 97-L

Thunderstorms waned over 97-L this Sunday evening. There remains a healthy spin just above the surface but near the ocean the circulation is still broad around an area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles. Although upper level winds have weakened, evening atmospheric soundings still indicate the presence of dry air at about 15,000 feet up.


While the statistical and regional weather models that assume an already developed system intensify 97-L, the global weather models are slower to latch on to development. In fact the American (GFS) model now offers more support for the disturbance behind 97-L than it does for the low pressure area near the islands. Until a tropical depression or storm forms, it's difficult to say much about future track or intensity. With sporadic thunderstorm activity and a broad surface circulation, a developing system could form north or south along the wave axis. The difference in where formation might occur has meaningful consequences on future track.


Bottom line: The historical peak of the season is approaching and conditions appear generally favorable for slow organization as 97-L moves westward over the next few days. By the middle to latter part of the week, a weakness in high pressure steering to the north will carve a channel for 97-L to turn toward the northwest. While it's too early to speculate on U.S. impacts, the earliest threat will be late week into the weekend.


Regardless of development squally weather will spread through the Lesser Antilles tomorrow and Tuesday. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft as well as a NASA Global Hawk drone may investigate 97-L on Tuesday.
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ninel conde

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#382 Postby ninel conde » Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:48 am

this is from HurricaneDave, sounds ominous:

It could move between pr and / dr. When this system enters the bahamas it will have moved toward the weakness in west atlantic/bahamas. Conditions will favor rapid intensification by day 5. Beyond that it is speculative on where this goes and how strong and ignore the blue lines.

HurricaneDave Discov Everyone in hispanola/pr/cuba and east coast should be mindful to closely watch this system given the seemingly favorable conditions and no apparent shortcoming of ingrediants to intensify this.
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#383 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:58 am

Radar image from Barbados, I place the X where the vorticity/COC is seen on satellite and radar loop.

Image
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#384 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:08 am

That's about right NDG. 97L will probably find beter conditions to develop once it gets to around 70 degrees longitude. Land interaction with Hispanolia will be critical as always again.
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#385 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:11 am

8 AM Tropical Weather Discussion.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 19N59W TO THE LOW
NEAR 14N59W TO 11N59W AND IS MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS OBSERVED COUPLED TO
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
CONTINUE WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-
66W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 55W-62W.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Yep, there she goes...

#386 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:18 am

As predicted, it went poof and now there are just some random bursts here and there, not together or consolidated. This is a nothing burger to me.

abajan wrote:Frequent rolls thunder here now but no rain.

http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/7926/ye0s.png

This takes the crown for weirdest post of the month :) . Doesn't look like any particular animal or human.

ninel conde wrote:this is from HurricaneDave, sounds ominous:
*Cut*

I think he needs to re-evaluate his thoughts because that made no sense. Just some pure guessing.
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ninel conde

Re: Yep, there she goes...

#387 Postby ninel conde » Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:28 am

Cyclenall wrote:As predicted, it went poof and now there are just some random bursts here and there, not together or consolidated. This is a nothing burger to me.

abajan wrote:Frequent rolls thunder here now but no rain.

http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/7926/ye0s.png

This takes the crown for weirdest post of the month :) . Doesn't look like any particular animal or human.

ninel conde wrote:this is from HurricaneDave, sounds ominous:
*Cut*

I think he needs to re-evaluate his thoughts because that made no sense. Just some pure guessing.


dave is a frequent poster on wxrisks facebook.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#388 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:50 am

Down to 20% but stays at 50% in five days.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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#389 Postby ninel conde » Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:57 am

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8s

Long slow drawn out process likely to have storm in Bahamas in several days, but doubt its near what the HWRF has

says storm likely

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m

US hurricane models so far doing poor job. HWRF turns tropical system over Caribbean into cat 4 hurricane in Bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#390 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:34 am

12z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090212, , BEST, 0, 143N, 594W, 25, 1009, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#391 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:37 am

Looks like the feature due East of where the low is will take over. Maybe this is the split the models where talking about earlier? If so, it does look like it would stay East of Florida.

If course this is just my opinion. I'm no Met.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#392 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:38 am

Almost stationary.

LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 59.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
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#393 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:44 am

:uarrow:
I saw that.. maybe a chance to consolidate.. always optimistic :wink:
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Re:

#394 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:47 am

pgoss11 wrote::uarrow:
I saw that.. maybe a chance to consolidate.. always optimistic :wink:

Also, all that moisture from the wave to it's west is moving towards the stationary 97L. At some point it seems they will be one and the same. What will come from that?
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#395 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:47 am

Latest SSD numbers

02/1145 UTC 14.3N 59.4W TOO WEAK 97L
02/0545 UTC 14.2N 59.5W TOO WEAK 97L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#396 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:51 am

I'm looking at the latest MIMIC-TPW loop and it looks a little better than yesterday. Maybe the NHC has access to better data?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#397 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:00 am

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#398 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:00 am

looks like it will combine with the system to its east. The combined system may have a chance of development
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Re:

#399 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:02 am

Alyono wrote:looks like it will combine with the system to its east. The combined system may have a chance of development



I agree
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#400 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:18 am

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