Suspect Twave near African Coast (Pouch 29L) (Is Invest 98L)

[Gustywind]

Here is the first group pouch analysis for newly formed Pouch 29L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P29L.html

SYNOPSIS 2013090200

P29L
9N, 10W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Tracked to 96 hours. Strengthens a little when over the eastern Atlantic as part of the monsoon trough. However, it is tiny, and short-lived.

GFS: A little larger than in ECMWF, but only lasts 72 hours. P31L to the northeast is eventually stronger.

UKMET: Tracked all 120 hours, although it is only an OW max after 84 hours.

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:

[Gustywind]

Looks a new twave is about to exiting Africa with some slight mid rotation and a modest but somewhat decent amount of moisture.
Anyone notice that? Opinions are always welcomed from everybody to have a better idea of this new twave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-rb.html
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... e_anim.gif

[cycloneye]

Merged your African wave thread with the pouch 29L one as both are for the same area.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

2PM TWO

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAS MOVED
OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMETAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

Merged your African wave thread with the pouch 29L one as both are for the same area.

Ah ok, thanks

[bamajammer4eva]

Watching area near 8.2N 15.3W for tropical development [Invest 98L]: winds 25 mph moving W at 8 mph http://wxug.us/16k51 #hurrican

[RL3AO]

Is now 98L

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