ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #1 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:45 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309021737
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013090218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013090118, , BEST, 0, 80N, 120W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013090200, , BEST, 0, 80N, 129W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 80N, 137W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013090212, , BEST, 0, 80N, 145W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013090218, , BEST, 0, 82N, 153W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

HurricaneMaster_PR · #2 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:51 pm

2 PM TWO

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAS MOVED
OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMETAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

#3 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:59 pm

Why have most of the TW's this year moved NW after leaving Africa?

Gustywind · #4 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:00 pm

That a was fast, :eek:

, here comes 98L.

From Wunderground:
:rarrow:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... text=track

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 09/2/13 8.2N 15.3W 20 1009 Invest

ninel conde · #5 Postby **ninel conde** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:13 pm

Blown Away wrote:Why have most of the TW's this year moved NW after leaving Africa?

there has been a persistent upper low near the azores and trof along nw africa.

#6 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:19 pm

Too much shear in the area. It's got a wall of shear to the northwest. Unless it can break it and survive to the central Atlantic, not much hope IMO.

Gustywind · #7 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:06 pm

Hey, Cycloneye could we have the latest sat pic of 98L. Thanks.

TheStormExpert · #8 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:12 pm

Why even bother investing this? It's just most likely going to bite the dust like 96L and many others including Erin did.

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:12 pm

latest infrared

jaguarjace · #10 Postby **jaguarjace** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:14 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/98L_floater.html

Gustywind · #11 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:15 pm

Thanks for those nice pics Hurakan and Jaguarjace

.

Hurricaneman · #12 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:19 pm

This looks pretty good ATM, but what it looks like tomorrow could be completely different as in a dried up husk or a pre tropical cyclone

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:20 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:This looks pretty good ATM, but what it looks like tomorrow could be completely different as in a dried up husk or a pre tropical cyclone

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Don't let the Atlantic know it looks pretty good, it may kill it!! lol

supercane4867 · #14 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:29 pm

Expect to be Erin #2 at most, the next wave will pull a real show according to GFS and EC

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:32 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Expect to be Erin #2 at most, the next wave will pull a real show according to GFS and EC

Off-Topic=Go here to see the agreement.

#16 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:42 pm

At that latitude I wouldn't hold my breath more then likely will recurve but we shall see. Could be seasons first cane

Edit.. This is around time frame when wxman57 said there might be a pattern change favoring less recurving storms.

#17 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:At that latitude I wouldn't hold my breath more then likely will recurve but we shall see. Could be seasons first cane

Its at 8.2N. How much further south can it get?

Hurricaneman · #18 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:
SFLcane wrote:At that latitude I wouldn't hold my breath more then likely will recurve but we shall see. Could be seasons first cane

Its at 8.2N. How much further south can it get?

Equator

as for this as far south as it is I wouldn't necessarily say that this will be a fish unless there is a strong weakness to pull it north

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#19 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:51 pm

Looking rather organized coming off Africa this afternoon. Development chances look higher than what the NHC has provided in the last outlook given how impressive it is looking. Look for those to go up in the next outlook at 8pm EST.

#20 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:53 pm

If it stays REALLY low, it might have a chance. But it would have to ride near 10N all the way to the islands...

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