Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

stay safe down there abajan and gusty too

[msbee]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SUN SEP 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW OVER HISPANIOLA WILL BE DISPLACED BY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND IT WILL HAVE A
STRONG PRESENCE JUST NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE BY THURSDAY. THIS
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK
BUT WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY LATE THIS WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 57 WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP 1700 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS FRIDAY AND FORM A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS A STRENGTHENING JUST EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A STRONG WAVE OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...INCREASING MOISTURE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE MAYAGUEZ AREA
AND ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM PENUELAS TO SABANA GRANDE
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING AS OF 2:30 PM AST.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEFORE SUNSET.

SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE CIRCULATING
AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AT 700 MB WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PUERTO RICO.

ON TUESDAY THE MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME MODELS
DO NOT SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POSSIBILITY. NEVERTHELESS...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD BE ITS SEED IS QUITE ELONGATED AT THIS
TIME AND IT IS ENTERING AN AREA THAT TYPICALLY WORKS AGAINST SUCH
FORMATION. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF FORECASTERS
HERE...AND AT THE HURRICANE CENTER...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS AND SHOW A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PASSING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO
MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 850 MB WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL
MOIST FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND SO NOW
EXPECT BEST RAINS ON TUESDAY. NOT WITHSTANDING...THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TOO PUT OUT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS PATH IF IT
DOES DEVELOP. WE WILL RE- EVALUATE THIS SITUATION ON MONDAY AND
DECIDE IF SUFFICIENT RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING.
WOULD EXPECT MANY AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES RICH OVER THE AREA AND REAL DRYING IS NOT
DEPICTED IN THE GFS MODEL UNTIL MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HENCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SCATTERED AT TIMES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER SW PR...WILL RESULT IN VCTS
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS BETWEEN 01/19-22Z. THIS FLOW WILL
FOCUS THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER SW PR BETWEEN OF TJPS AND
TJMZ...MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET. WINDS
WILL BE FROM ENE AT 10 TO 15 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SEAS OF OVER 5 FEET
WERE SEEN FOR A WHILE AT BUOY 42060 SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST...BUT CURRENTLY
HOLDING WINDS AT OR BELOW 21 KNOTS. SHOULD ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
BE OBSERVED WITH INVEST 97L...THE WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE
CARIBBEAN...WILL HAVE TO PUT UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 77 87 / 40 60 60 70
STT 80 89 78 89 / 40 40 60 70

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE
DECREASED THIS EVENING...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER ELONGATED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MONDAY.

[Gustywind]

Monitoring a Tropical Low Near the Lesser Antilles
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
September 01, 2013; 7:16 PM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 1/17323521

A close eye is being kept on a low near the Lesser Antilles, which will face drenching showers and thunderstorms regardless of any tropical development.

Thunderstorm activity increased around the tropical low Sunday morning, a key factor to any potential development. The low is also tracking through water that is more than warm enough to support strengthening.

However, there are other factors working against development.

The thunderstorm activity actually started to diminish some Sunday afternoon as the low ran into dry air across the eastern Caribbean. Also in place is disruptive wind shear to the north and west of the low.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists are closely monitoring the low for the possibility that it overcomes these obstacles and organizes into the next tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The low could do so as it tracks westward through the eastern Caribbean over the next few of days.

Regardless of development, drenching and gusty showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread across the Lesser Antilles through Monday. Localized flash flooding could unfold in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

The storminess also threatens to ruin outdoor and vacation plans.

Additional heavy showers and thunderstorms will stretch across the Leeward Islands through midweek with another tropical wave following on the heels of the low.

The wave will also cause shower and thunderstorm activity to increase across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by midweek, but is not expected to develop due to the mountainous terrain of the Caribbean islands and wind shear in its path.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Tropical Weather Discussion.



TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
21N56W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 15N60W TO 13N60W MOVING W TO W-
NW AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 53W-60W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER ELONGATED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N46W
TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N48W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST SUN SEP 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LABOR
DAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
SEA MON-WED BRINGING SIG RAINS TO ERN PR AND USVI TUE-WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WX NEXT 12 HRS UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...DRY AIR AND NEGATIVE H85 THETAE AIR ADVECTION. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE MON WITH SCT AFTERNOON TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PR UNDER A NE STEERING FLOW.

BIG SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES AND
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W WILL BEGIN TO REACH ERN PR AND THE USVI
TUE MORNING WITH SIG FLOODING RAINS LIKELY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAINS BUT BOTH PAINT A VERY
WET SCENARIO FOR ERN PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE USVI MID WEEK.
WAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH 70W BY 12Z WED WITH WX LIKELY TO
IMPROVE BY LATE WED ACCORDING TO 18Z GFS AND GEFS GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH
ECMWF IS SLOWER BY 24 HRS WITH HEAVY RAINS LINGERING THRU THU.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Here comes the bad weather related to 97L for PR and adjacent islands. Stay tuned for the latest on this event.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON SEP 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE US. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE...WHICH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
OUR WEATHER...IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANY BY DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A BIG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS THIS SYSTEM TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN NEAR PUERTO
RICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS STARTING ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN
FACT...LATEST SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISING TO AS MUCH AS OVER 2.30 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THETAE VALUES AT 700MB OVER 340K. IN
ADDITION...MODEL SHOWS A WELL DEFINE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN
0-3 KM...WHICH...COULD BRING EVEN MORE MOIST FROM THE DEEP TROPICS
TO THE LOCAL AREA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS
EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON
COULD AFFECT TJPS AND TJMZ BUT TEMPO GROUPS WERE LEFT OUT OF TAF
SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 5 MILE
RADIUS OF EACH TERMINAL...HOWEVER VCTS AT TJPS AND TJMZ IS QUITE
POSSIBLE. WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 87 77 / 30 30 70 70
STT 89 82 83 81 / 10 60 70 70

[cycloneye]

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST MON SEP 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THESE SHOWERS GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1
TO 2 INCHES. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE. TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATE TO A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL HELP
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMS...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE MOVING WSW ACROSS PR AT 15 KT
AND WILL DIMINISH AFT 02/22Z EXCEPT ON THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE OF
PUERTO RICO. OCNL MTN OBSCURATIONS. AFT 03/16Z AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE OVER MOST OF PR/USVI WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. LLVL WINDS E-ENE 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
CHOPPY SEAS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH OUR
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 87 77 / 30 50 80 60
STT 89 82 83 81 / 40 70 80 90

[Gustywind]

Very interesting discussion concerning the numerous areas of concerned in the Atlantic Ocean. Let's keep a close eye on these features as we're slighlty reaching the peak of the hurricane season

Atlantic Active But All Features Are Disorganized
September 02, 2013; 11:10 AM

We are tracking several features across the Atlantic. However, areas of dry air and shear are preventing development.

See video: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 0659509001

[Gustywind]

Related to 97L in vicinity of the EC islands.

2 PM Tropical Weather Discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 14N59W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT PART OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[abajan]

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN

Issued by The Barbados Meteorological Services
at 3:00 pm Monday, 2nd September, 2013

There has been no significant change in the unsettled weather conditions which have
been affecting Barbados over the past few days. A passing tropical wave embedded
within a broad area of low pressure continues to affect the islands of the eastern
Caribbean. Another tropical wave is also forecasted to move across the area within
another 24 – 36 hours, adding to the instability.

Thus, the unsettled weather conditions are expected to continue into Wednesday,
during which time some outbreaks of moderate to heavy showers and scattered
thunderstorms will spread across the island. Wind-speeds will also remain light and
this will contribute to an element of localized showers during the daytime.
With the already saturated nature of the earth, some flash- flooding is possible.
Residents in flood-prone areas should take all necessary precautions and remain on the
alert.

Some improvement in the conditions is expected by Thursday.
This SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN will be updated if conditions warrant.

Source: http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings-tbpb.php

[Gustywind]

After a quick return in green code yesterday afternoon, Guadeloupe and Martinica are since this afternoon 5PM under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

Martinica Weather Forecast http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

Here is the latest weather for Martinica related to the yellow alert issued at 5 PM.

Level of vigilance: yellow.

Warning : Heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Validity: Monday, September 2 at 5 PM.

Current situation: A broad low pressure area, currently in the southeast of Martinique will cross the Caribbean arc tonight.

Forecasts:The cloud masses associated with the low pressure zone will concern our island during the night.

Strong showers and tstorms are expected. As this system is moving relatively slowly, there's a risk of significant rainfall during 6 or 12 hours. Values expected should reach 70 to 100 millimeters on 12 hours.

Observed data:The system is too far away to have significant values at this time.

Next newsletter: Tuesday 3 September at -6AM.


Guadeloupe Weather Forecast

Here is the latest weather for Guadeloupe related to the yellow alert issued at 5 PM.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

Current situation: A tropical wave concerns us and crosses slowly the Caribbean Arc. This afternoon, she was near the 60 ° W, and has brang strong showers and tstorms, especially in the south part of the island.

Forecasts: During the night of Monday to Tuesday, the strong showers and tstorms will intensify. The half South of the island
the archipelago should be the most exposed: rainfall values close to 50 millimeters and more are expected. This stormy episode is forecast to persist till Wednesday included. Lulls sometimes temporary could appear.

Observed data: Today, Marie-Galante received 22,4 millimeters between 12 AM and 3 PM.

Next newsletter: Tuesday, September 3, around 06 AM.

[msbee]

Abajan and Gusty, take care down there

[Gustywind]

Abajan and Gusty, take care down there

Thanks Msbee , keep an eye on this too.

[cycloneye]

I added new links of Caribbean weather interest to the first post of this thread.

[abajan]

Abajan and Gusty, take care down there

Will do. Thanks Msbee

[msbee]

Abajan and Gusty, take care down there

Thanks Msbee , keep an eye on this too.

watching, wtaching

[msbee]

I added new links of Caribbean weather interest to the first post of this thread.

Thanks Luis..Keep an eye on this one as I know you are