Tropical Wave in BOC (Is Invest 99L)
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 0%-20%
Can one of the Mods bump this one up to 10% and 30%
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 0%-20%
tailgater wrote:Can one of the Mods bump this one up to 10% and 30%
Done.
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CrazyC83
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 0%-20%
cycloneye wrote:tailgater wrote:Can one of the Mods bump this one up to 10% and 30%
Done.
I still see 10/20. I'm thinking this gets closed soon anyway and 99L declared...
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Gustywind
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2013
A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W TO
THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N92W. A SECOND
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
27N98W IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO ITS
PRESENT POSITION SINCE 01/2315 UTC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N88W...TO THE 23N92W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS
NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 25N96W 20N92W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2013
A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W TO
THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N92W. A SECOND
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
27N98W IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO ITS
PRESENT POSITION SINCE 01/2315 UTC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N88W...TO THE 23N92W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS
NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 25N96W 20N92W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 10%-30%
tailgater wrote:I see a weak spin over the north Central Yucatan peninsula. You probably won't be able to see it in a few hours, after the daytime heating.
Conditions of do look favorable for something to develop in the BOC or western Gulf with the upper low diving SW over NE Mexico.
I posted this about 4 hours ago and man did it blow up with the daytime heating, should be coming off the coast just south of Merida. lets see if it can maintain this convection, it probavly won't and the shear is a little stronger than I thought but it's still more interesting than 97L to me.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Florida1118
Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 10%-30%
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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TheStormExpert
Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:How many systems can you get to form in the BOC in just one season? If this forms it will be the third so far this season to form there!
BOC is certainly the hotspot for formation this season, although short-lived systems.
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Audrey (1957), Carla (1961), Hilda (1964), Betsy (1965), Edith (1971), Carmen (1974), Danny (1985), Juan (1985), Andrew (1992), Lili (2002), Rita (2005), Gustav (2008), Ike (2008), and stuck in the eye of Iniki (1992) while vacationing in Kauai.
Not an official forecast by any means.
Not an official forecast by any means.
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caneman
Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 20%-30%
Any reason why this hasn't been tagged as an invest yet? From a nearby buoy: E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 105 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling ) Lowest it's been in 24 hours.
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 105 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling ) Lowest it's been in 24 hours.
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caneman
Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 20%-30%
Quite impressive on Satellite and Radar too.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 20%-30%
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHEN THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHEN THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Pearl River
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 20%-30%
If this system moves slow enough into the BOC, is there a possibility this thing could be pulled more north due to the approaching trough? Pro-Met or other. Possibly off to the NE towards Florida, say big bend area?
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 20%-30%
It looks like the trough will either not be deep enough and not positive tilted to pulled it north towards FL.
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ninel conde
Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 20%-30%
Pearl River wrote:If this system moves slow enough into the BOC, is there a possibility this thing could be pulled more north due to the approaching trough? Pro-Met or other. Possibly off to the NE towards Florida, say big bend area?
highly unlikely. w or wnw will be the path.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / later to BOC: 20%-30%
amazed that this is not an invest. It has a better percentage than the other invests.....I guess invests taggs are only for model support areas...
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