ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[Blown Away]

12z...The sharpness of the recurve is puzzling this time of year...


12z Intensity...I suspect the lower intensity is due to Hispaniola/Cuba interaction...IMO if the SHIP/DSHP models move away from the islands in future runs the intensity will shoot back up...

[gatorcane]

I think those models are recurving it too soon given that 97L is a shallow system being steered by low-level flow at the moment which is more ESE to WNW.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

yeah, I suspect the initial motion is even "off" and we can expect a more westerly path for a while until development gets better. 295 seems a bit too nw motion-wise to me. Maybe they are getting that heading based on guesstimates of where the "center" is. But it doesn't seem like tis been moving that much NW, and closer to 280 or less. -just my amateur opinion.
My guess is that it will actually track south of hispanola, and the models will adjust south with their next runs to reflect the lack of formation yet and show a more westerly general path vs the NW to N path most are currently going with in the midterm.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[N2FSU]

What's with the Canadian suddenly changing it's tune from a NW-N turn to due west, or slightly SW?

[adam0983]

Lets hope whatever invest 97L turns into goes out to sea.

[gatorcane]

Note the 00Z ECMWF moves the mess into the Cuba / FL Straits/ Bahamas area. Here we are at 168 hours. The quick recurving models assume the system deepens more quickly than it is likely going to:

[tolakram]

12Z GFS again delays movement. The 12Z Sept 4th forecast shows the maximum vorticity further south of PR, then moves it through what I think is called the Mona pass.









http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

[tolakram]

The 12Z Canadian doesn't show much of anything until around 72 hours, then quickly deepens the system and shoots it NE. It shows vorticity max staying north of the islands.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM hits Bermuda with a powerful system . Thankfully it is the GEM. Here we are at 126 hours:

[gatorcane]

The 12Z NAVY back on board with development north of Hispaniola with the system moving NE:

[Dean4Storms]

In reality considering the errors in track by most models this far out you might as well take into consideration that this system is further west maybe by as much as 200 miles by day 5. Don't see it further east at all.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at some of these models I can't help and see a similarity to Hurricane Jeanne. Jeanne affected Hispaniola as a Tropical Storm and then moved north into the Atlantic only to eventually be blocked by the high, did a loop, and the rest is history. So far none of the models seem to show 97L being blocked but I wouldn't discount it just yet. The sharp recurve seems a bit suspect to me given that it is only early September. Late September into October maybe...seems a bit too soon for that though.

SFT

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, the 06z TAFB has 97L as a wave near Jamaica in 72 hours...

[gatorcane]

In reality considering the errors in track by most models this far out you might as well take into consideration that this system is further west maybe by as much as 200 miles by day 5. Don't see it further east at all.

The GFS and ECMWF are even disagreeing on the trough/ridge setup 120 hours. The ECMWF shows not nearly as deep of a trough over Eastern North America than the GFS. In fact based on the 00Z ECMWF there is a good amount of ridging to drive this system more WNW the next several days.

Given climo, you would think the GFS is overdoing the trough it is showing that turns this system north of Hispaniola and then NE out to sea on a sharp recurve track.

00Z ECMWF 500MB Steering at 120 hours with ridging in place over the Western Atlantic:



12Z GFS 500MB at 108 hours (corresponding to 00Z ECMWF 120 Hour) with a big weakness over the Western Atlantic:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC TUE SEP 3 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130903 1800 130904 0600 130904 1800 130905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 62.1W 15.8N 64.2W 16.9N 66.3W 17.8N 68.3W
BAMD 15.0N 62.1W 15.9N 64.0W 16.8N 65.9W 17.8N 67.6W
BAMM 15.0N 62.1W 15.8N 64.0W 16.7N 66.1W 17.6N 67.8W
LBAR 15.0N 62.1W 15.8N 63.5W 17.1N 65.4W 18.6N 67.1W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130905 1800 130906 1800 130907 1800 130908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 70.2W 19.7N 73.4W 20.1N 75.9W 20.3N 78.0W
BAMD 18.6N 69.1W 19.8N 71.4W 21.1N 72.2W 22.8N 70.6W
BAMM 18.4N 69.5W 19.3N 72.1W 19.8N 73.9W 20.3N 74.6W
LBAR 20.1N 69.0W 22.9N 71.8W 25.9N 72.7W 30.4N 71.0W
SHIP 62KTS 73KTS 75KTS 77KTS
DSHP 62KTS 73KTS 75KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 62.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 61.3W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 60.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

18z...So much for the prediction that this year's pattern will allow for CONUS landfalls...That recurve looks like an October setup...Feeling better in SFL that nothing from the east will get us this season...

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z run.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC TUE SEP 3 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130903 1800 130904 0600 130904 1800 130905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 63.0W 15.7N 65.0W 16.6N 67.2W 17.4N 69.2W
BAMD 15.0N 63.0W 15.8N 65.0W 16.6N 67.0W 17.4N 68.9W
BAMM 15.0N 63.0W 15.7N 65.0W 16.5N 67.0W 17.3N 68.8W
LBAR 15.0N 63.0W 15.9N 64.7W 17.2N 66.7W 18.6N 68.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130905 1800 130906 1800 130907 1800 130908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 71.2W 19.1N 74.6W 19.5N 77.3W 19.9N 79.8W
BAMD 18.2N 70.6W 19.4N 73.4W 20.5N 74.9W 22.0N 74.9W
BAMM 18.1N 70.6W 18.9N 73.4W 19.4N 75.5W 19.8N 76.6W
LBAR 20.1N 70.5W 22.8N 73.1W 25.8N 73.7W 29.8N 71.7W
SHIP 62KTS 73KTS 75KTS 76KTS
DSHP 44KTS 46KTS 48KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 61.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 60.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF sends the invest slowly WNW for the next 7+ days. 168 hour saved image shows the area moving WNW in the Bahamas:

[tolakram]

UKMET looks to have an updated solution at 12Z. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Jumps north at day 2???

[gatorcane]

It's out there but would like to point out the 12Z ECMWF brings 97L through the Bahamas and into Florida at 240 hours after stalling 97L around Hispaniola for a few days.

Of course it is not a well-developed system though. Still the sharp recurve the hurricane models are showing is overdone in my opinion.

216 Hour image:


240 Hour Image: