ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

That swirl looks to be headed right for you Cycloneye.....batten down the hatches!....MGC

Lol. The biggest threat is the rainfall and mudslides as PR has seen above normal precipitation this year.

[NDG]

Grenada reported SW winds all morning long, they just switched more to the south and SSW during the past hour indicating to me that indeed 97L is on the move and still has a circulation overall with a couple of eddies rotating around, possibly the main with the one many of us have mentioned near 14.2N & 63.2W

[Gustywind]

By the way, Martinica have back off the yellow alert, but Guadeloupe stays in yellow.

[alienstorm]

Martinique radar shows well defined circulation at 14.2 N

[Sanibel]

Yeah the system is starting to gradually look better on satellite with more pronounced cyclonic turning in a conolidated area whereas yesterday we saw less of that and stronger trade wind flow.

On closer inspection you have a point. All a guess if it can overcome conditions, but I see your point and it might refire if it can hold that circulation.

[cycloneye]

Global Hawk is closing in. Let's see what it finds.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

[HurricaneDREW92]

Global Hawk is closing in. Let's see what it finds.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

The moment of truth

[NDG]

If you ask me 97L might still has to fight mid level dry air to its north, if it gets entrained, as noticed on this 12z sounding from St Maarten/Princess Juliana this morning.
I averaged H70-H50 humidity level near 45%, still fairly dry mid levels that could kill small building convection once again.
Approaching TW from the east might help moisten up the atmosphere some during the upcoming days.

[tolakram]

At first I was thinking this looks to be falling apart, but perhaps a single center is starting to consolidate today? Some semblance of banding setting up?

[gatorcane]

At first I was thinking this looks to be falling apart, but perhaps a single center is starting to consolidate today? Some semblance of banding setting up?

I do see some possible banding also. This may be the best it has looked since it has been declared an invest.

Wonder if NHC ups the development chances for the 2pm EST outlook?

[cycloneye]

Dr Masters just posted at his blog this:

It's like a switch got turned on over 97L, and now it is starting to spin up. However, I'm seeing outflow boundaries on the convection on its north side, where dry air is getting ingested. Probably a 2-day 40% chance of development now.

Dr. M.

[tolakram]

Latest. No shortage of outflow boundaries.

[stauglocal]

Wow, definitely looks better than this morning. I'm afraid to get excited, being how this season has been.

[wxman57]

Lol. The biggest threat is the rainfall and mudslides as PR has seen above normal precipitation this year.

I've posed this question in the office and no one knew the answer. Assuming no land is being added to Puerto Rico's higher elevations, how many years of landslides will it take before Puerto Rico is completely flat and landslides are no longer an issue? That's something to think about...

I see the 12Z GFS develops it at least to a TD north of the Caribbean before moving it out to sea to the north. Fair chance of that, I suppose. It's not in any hurry.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Not sure if it's a developing LLC or one of many eddies spinning around...

[HurricaneDREW92]

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/2812/47eh.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Not sure if it's a developing LLC or one of many eddies spinning around...

Bit outdated
Convection firing over the center.

[Alyono]

I have a center near 14.5N and 63W

If this moves as slowly as some of the models have it doing so north of the Caribbean, there could be massive flooding for Hispañiola

[Sanibel]

Dare I say remember it is in the East Caribbean.

[NDG]

Fairly breezy on the northern quadrant of 97L, pressure a couple of mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

Conditions at 42060 as of
(12:50 pm AST)
1650 GMT on 09/03/2013:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 73 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.0 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 23.3 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 25.3 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

One thing that I have noticed today also besides a more defined circulation is that the low clouds underneath the TW east of 97L now seem to be racing towards 97L as if 97L is now taking over as the main system.

[Alyono]

Dare I say remember it is in the East Caribbean.

and again, I will say that 12 storms have formed in the E Carib since 2003. We're averaging 1.2 per year there.

The John Hope rule is bunk