Global model runs discussion

[Hammy]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Am I reading this incorrectly or does it appear the MJO will have little to no impact on the Atlantic basin?

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS shows a wave with low coming off of Africa in 5 days and recurves it past truncation in about 10 days so while this wave is currently over Sudan its modeled to develop by all models near Africa except the NAVGEM so this may be one to watch

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[tolakram]

Big move east for the MJO



I do not know what this next plot represents. It appears it's telling us the MJO took the southern route down and avoided most of the Atlantic?



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml

The latest GFS MJO forecast



ECMF

[hurricaneCW]

Please do note that the MJO is not a huge factor during the peak of the season, at least usually. It can't hurt to have it in the basin but just because the MJO is unfavorable doesn't mean we can't see storms and hurricanes. I say usually but this season probably needs it more than usual as there's a lot of sinking and dry air on a global level keeping ACE down globally.

[TheStormExpert]

Please do note that the MJO is not a huge factor during the peak of the season, at least usually. It can't hurt to have it in the basin but just because the MJO is unfavorable doesn't mean we can't see storms and hurricanes. I say usually but this season probably needs it more than usual as there's a lot of sinking and dry air on a global level keeping ACE down globally.

IMO, I thought the MJO at this point would be the only thing that might save this season from being completely shut down. It seems to be the only hope at this point!

[Hammy]

GFS showing a few storms out near the 19th, but at this point, its for entertainment purposes only as I almost have a hard time believing anything, even this time of year, will really be able to get going with the present conditions.

[ninel conde]

gfs shows the wheel in place and lower pressure near the bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

[ninel conde]

06 gfs shows the wheel, but it is weaker. the balance of the season is based on how the wheel evolves. euro and gfs both show a storm out at 10 days.

[tolakram]

I don't believe in the wheel. Bastardi is good at giving patterns names, which might be helpful, but I'm really not sure. I have yet to hear him mention this on the premium Weatherbell site. Maybe today, or maybe it's the difference between the public Joe and the professional Joe.

As to the latest runs....

IMO, since both the Euro and GFS are forecasting the MJO to continue to be favorable and move toward Africa they are both developing these waves. If MJO reality turns out to be different we'll probably see both back off development as we get within 5 days or so.





http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[ninel conde]

im baffled at where the storms come from on the gfs and euro. its is totally bone dry over africa and i cant identify anything that would produce a storm. on top of that a new sal outbreak is developing. is 98L the storm showing up?

[ROCK]

whats a wheel? I have never heard this term before and I have been around a long time....

[hurricanetrack]

It's the Wheel in the Sky, Rock....you know, that awesome Journey song. Of course, some on here were not even born when that song came out....

[Ntxw]

The MJO is currently in phase 1. Most models, Euro/Ukmet/Canadian/Ensembles and to an extent the GFS begin to weaken the signal. Beyond that they are hinting at heading to the general direction of the Pacific Ocean. But this is longer range and subject to wide margins of error especially with the MJO. One thing they do agree on shorter term is the MJO will weaken from its current peak.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

If the MJO were to head to the Pacific then subsidence will be favored over the Atlantic and rising air to the WPAC.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

wheel is developing. looks sweet if something can get trapped.

[tolakram]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

wheel is developing. looks sweet if something can get trapped.

Sweet as in a landfalling storm on the East Coast? Is that really sweet?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not believing a thing these models post right now honestly. This year in my opinion will continue to be slow. I think we may have one or hurricane maybe two in Sept. Many mets think at least 4 but i dont see it. Hopefully it shuts down early as well so we dont have a Sandy situation again. I think in October you have a better chance of blocking and storms merging etc. Other than that, im ready for fall!

[Stormcenter]

Unfortunately something will pop out of nowhere when we least expect before the end of this month. Just my opinion and nothing to back it up.

[NDG]

The MJO is currently in phase 1. Most models, Euro/Ukmet/Canadian/Ensembles and to an extent the GFS begin to weaken the signal. Beyond that they are hinting at heading to the general direction of the Pacific Ocean. But this is longer range and subject to wide margins of error especially with the MJO. One thing they do agree on shorter term is the MJO will weaken from its current peak.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

If the MJO were to head to the Pacific then subsidence will be favored over the Atlantic and rising air to the WPAC.

I don't see that the Euro is showing it heading towards the Western Pacific, instead it shows it heading towards phase 4/5 through the next 2 weeks.
So maybe not that quick of a death for the Atlantic activity after leaving our side of the world, if the Euro is correct?

[Ntxw]

I don't see that the Euro is showing it heading towards the Western Pacific, instead it shows it heading towards phase 4/5 through the next 2 weeks.
So maybe not that quick of a death for the Atlantic activity after leaving our side of the world, if the Euro is correct?

Remember, the MJO moves east always. If it heads over to phases 4/5 it will then more than likely move to the Pacific as that is downstream of the Maritime continent. That is why I mentioned in the "general direction' of the Pacific. And it does not necessarily mean a death to hurricane season, just that subsidence will begin to take over again across the MDR once it is a little past the IO in addition to whatever it is that is killing it in the background, yuck.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Unfortunately something will pop out of nowhere when we least expect before the end of this month. Just my opinion and nothing to back it up.

Exactly how i feel