Surface Trough in Western Atlantic

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 20N53W TO 08N52W AND IS
MOVING WEST NEAR 5 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COINCIDE WITH THE AREA WHERE
MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGHER FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N56W 15N55W 10N54W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN
49W AND 58W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO 10N53W
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

[Gustywind]

By the way, this twave shoud bring another wet weather conditions in the EC islands. Numerous strong showers and tstorms are expected today till Thursaday. We keep an eye on this feature.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 21N57W TO 11N55W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING AND AMPLIFIED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CONVECTION LOOKS MORE ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
CONCENTRATE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL WAVE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 54W-
59W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO 12N59W AND IS MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT ASSISTING IN THE GENERATION
OF NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
56W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-21N
BETWEEN 53W-60W.

[Gustywind]

Looks like a noticeable increasing and expanding (hour by hour convection) this morning associated with this twave moving straight over the Leewards and the Northern Leewards.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N60W 11N59W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W...FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND 61W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W.
IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN REMAINS
INTACT DURING THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

Wrong thread?

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.

AN E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N60W TO 10N60W
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 57W-
62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

[cycloneye]

Wrong thread?

Fixed it.

[Gustywind]

After a small break, another round of showers and tstorms is doting my area. Lightnings are making the show now...

[Gustywind]

Wrong thread?

Fixed it.

good job

[abajan]

This wave has been mentioned in the latest TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

This wave has been mentioned in the latest TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Yes even if Cycloneye has already posted Abajan . By the way, what's up in your area?

[Gustywind]

Latest Weather Forecast for Guadeloupe 6 PM. Yellow alert is maintained!

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf

Level of vigilance: yellow.

Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Validity: ongoing until Thursday, September 05, 2013 included.

Current situation:The weather situation is influenced by two disturbed systems: one in the Caribbean Sea now Depression tropical n ° 7 and who moves in the direction of Puerto Rico; the other located on the near Atlantic and will concerning this evening and tonight our island.

Forecasts: Rains are reactivated on our island and become again more frequent during the night. They can take locally a stormy character. Rainfall expected should reach values between 50 to 100 millemeters in some areas in 12 hours.
No sustainable improvement is expected before the end of tommorow Thursday.

Observed data:

Collected over the last 24 hours:
-Les Mamelles: 32 mm.

Next newsletter: Thursday September 5, 2013 around 06 AM.

[abajan]

This wave has been mentioned in the latest TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Yes even if Cycloneye has already posted Abajan . By the way, what's up in your area?

Oh yeah. Somehow I didn't see Cycloneye's post

Not much weather to speak of here today. I've seen a couple of distant flashes of lightning since sunset but nothing else. Looks like tons of rain heading for Puerto Rico tonight and tomorrow though.

[Gustywind]

This wave has been mentioned in the latest TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Yes even if Cycloneye has already posted Abajan . By the way, what's up in your area?

Oh yeah. Somehow I didn't see Cycloneye's post
Not much weather to speak of here today. I've seen a couple of distant flashes of lightning since sunset but nothing else. Looks like tons of rain heading for Puerto Rico tonight and tomorrow though.

No problem Abajan ? Bad news for PR If Gabrielle continues to increases and moves towards PR. Let's hope that things will not be too bad.

[abajan]

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As for Gabrielle, this slow movement doesn't bode well for Puerto Rico. Stay safe, Cycloneye and brace for flooding

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ptarmigan]

The tropical wave east of Gabrielle is larger.