5 PM TROPICAL UPDATE AND FORECAST for Isabel!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon everyone. Hurricane Isabel strengthens further this afternoon and is a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale.

At 5 PM EDT, the center of dangerous hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.2 north, longitude 51.9 west or about 685 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving towards the west at near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Isabel occasionally may wobble alittle south of due west occasionally throughout the night tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have now increased to 140 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Conditions are favorable for further strengthening for the next 24 hours with some fluctuations in intensity possible after that. Isabel could peak between 145-150 mph later tonite the way it has increased in intensity over the past few hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward 60 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward 185 miles. Minimum central pressure is now down to 942 millibars or 27.82 inches.

Large ocean swells will begin to affect the northern Leeward Islands as well as Puerto Ricos north shore by Thursday. Waves could peak at 10-20 feet by the weekend down there. Dangerous rip currents, high waves, and minor tidal flooding at times of high tide will be the MAIN concern down in through there.

Beyond the upcoming weekend, we need to start talking about impacts to the Bahamas and the southeastern United States. The threat for a major hurricane is very real here folks and alot of folks have been mentioning this possibility. I would have to be one person to advise people along the southeast US coast and the Bahamas to keep a vigilant eye on this monster as we get past the upcoming weekend. A ridge of high pressure to the north of Isabel will likely keep this west track going through 5 days. Early prepartion for this major hurricane may need to be neccessary just in case because with storms this intense and devastating, it's either prepare early or it's too late. That's the type of hurricane we're talking about here folks. I'll definitely talk and discuss more about the forecast path throughout the rest of the week and beyond. But just keep hurricane Isabel in mind if you're in the Bahamas or the southeastern United States for the next say 5-6 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... flvis.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... G8vis.html

All three sites are quite useful and worth checking out!!!! A very intense and devastating hurricane, which could get even stronger tonight. Once again keep a very close eye on this in the Bahamas and the southeast US coast in the next 5-6 days!!!

As for TD#14, the NHC has the last advisory written on it. It's falling part and is more extratropical near the Cape Verde Islands. Stay tuned.

Jim

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Great Pics!