2013 EPAC Season

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hurricanes1234
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#241 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:44 pm

Still looks quite sad, though. :cry: :cry: :cry:

:crying: :crying:

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#242 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:35 pm

Next one incoming:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COULD FORM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WHICH
MAY MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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#243 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:42 pm

5PM PDT: 0%/30%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#244 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:00 pm

Any model support on this?

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#245 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:13 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Any model support on this?


18z GFS has a 986mb strong TS near Baja at day 7
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#246 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:00 pm

Invest 99E looks like it's organising qulickly. I think Lorena could not only become our next storm but the first major hurricane.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#247 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:15 pm

Hurricane_Luis, I am not disagreeing with you, but could you please elaborate on why you think this would be our first major hurricane? I am quite interested to know. :)
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#248 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:25 pm

Image

unlikely for 99E to become a major hurricane, not only it's close to the cooler SST but it's a large disturbance, which will take days to consolidate
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#249 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:12 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Hurricane_Luis, I am not disagreeing with you, but could you please elaborate on why you think this would be our first major hurricane? I am quite interested to know. :)


Sorry for the late reply. I think that it might become our first major because its in favourable conditions, and its organising quicker than the other disturbances we've seen develop there. But as HURAKAN mentioned its a large system so it may never reach major status.
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Nothing

#250 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Sep 03, 2013 3:21 pm

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Sorry for the late reply. I think that it might become our first major because its in favourable conditions, and its organising quicker than the other disturbances we've seen develop there. But as HURAKAN mentioned its a large system so it may never reach major status.

I don't even think this will reach hurricane status, let alone major status. I'd say 5% for hurricane strength and less than 1% for major strength. If it doesn't form in the next 2 days, I'll have doubts this even gets a name. Organizing quicker? Its slower than the last few storms to me. Large and devoid of good convection. This also doesn't sound promising:

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN A HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS
...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM BEFORE THAT TIME WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Lowered the 5 day % to 70% from 80%.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#251 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:40 pm

looks like a lackluster of a season over there...
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#252 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:42 pm

I'd also give this a 50% chance of development. That being said, its peak would probably be around 50-60 mph. Definitely nothing above 80 mph. Of course, all of this would only be possible if it develops, which I would give it a 45-50% chance of falling apart into nothing like a number of its previous invests. As for this Pacific season, I don't know what's going on.

This may be a silly question that I've asked several times, but if the MJO is in its favourable state, then what is stopping the Pacific from maintaining storms? It has been active in terms of the number of named storms, but I'm still confused. :(

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#253 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:04 am

euro6208 wrote:looks like a lackluster of a season over there...

Absolutely, a complete joke like the 2nd half of 2010 was. I wasn't going to track this basin unless something crazy occurs and I'm certainly glad to ignore the Epac considering its lameness meter is off the charts like the Atlantic. BTW, what is your avatar of? Is blue your fav colour? :) :lol:

hurricanes1234 wrote:This may be a silly question that I've asked several times, but if the MJO is in its favourable state, then what is stopping the Pacific from maintaining storms? It has been active in terms of the number of named storms, but I'm still confused. :(

I don't know the reason for that either but again you should study the 2003 Epac hurricane season for answers as that had a similar progression.
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#254 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:35 am

Invest 99E has been renumbered so we will see TD Twelve-E and the NHC forecasts and advisories soon.
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euro6208

Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#255 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:22 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
euro6208 wrote:looks like a lackluster of a season over there...

Absolutely, a complete joke like the 2nd half of 2010 was. I wasn't going to track this basin unless something crazy occurs and I'm certainly glad to ignore the Epac considering its lameness meter is off the charts like the Atlantic. BTW, what is your avatar of? Is blue your fav colour? :) :lol:


Yes... :lol: something for me to look at to relax and enjoy...
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#256 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:28 pm

I'm dreaming for one of these

Image
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#257 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:12 pm

Image

Formation

Image

Passes west of Baja
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#258 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:49 pm

Just give it some time again, and it'll probably be dropped or lowered, until it eventually peaks as a weak 40-50 mph storm. Happened with Juliette in this same basin this year, when it was forecasted to attain <957 mbar, only to be progressively lowered to a weak, >990 mbar storm. When it eventually developed, it became no more than a 50 mph storm with a pressure of about 45-50 mbar higher than what the models initially expected. I am not wishing landfalls on anyone, but I am just outlining the pattern of this odd 2013 season in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#259 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 8:17 pm

At this porint it appears highly likely we won't get any majors this year and that's certainly not something unheard of (ex.2003)
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#260 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 08, 2013 10:23 am

As for all of the weak storms this year, it's likely that due to lack of major hurricane/vertical instability is causing this. This is a bit like the 2012 AHS. but it's not that unusual reminds me of 2000/1 PHS to an extent. But, it is a bit more liked 1970 PHS IMO.

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