Global model runs discussion

#6321 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:26 pm

The lack of activity is now starting to become scientifically interesting IMO.

#6322 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:45 pm

RL3AO wrote:The lack of activity is now starting to become scientifically interesting IMO.

I agree, it is becoming rather interesting. Could all the dry, lower & mid-level, air perhaps be caused by drought in Africa (96L impacts notwithstanding) increasing the amount of SAL?

Macrocane · #6323 Postby **Macrocane** » Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:08 pm

This year is a modern 1977 for the Northern Hemisphere. Meteorologist Ryan Maue has made some statistic studies about global tropical cyclone activity and it's interesting that we've been in a period of very low activity since 2007 with 2010 and 2013 being the lowest peaks.

TeamPlayersBlue · #6324 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:34 pm

If iirc, 1977, 78 were brutal winters for Texas too. Different thread though!

ninel conde · #6325 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 7:06 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013090400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=240hr

euro continues to get weaker and weaker with the 10 day storm. GFS still has a cane but i cant identify anything over africa that would trigger a low to form.

#6326 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 7:27 am

Latest MJO phase plot shows amplitude continuing to increase.

Current Africa IR image.

You can animate this image: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR108/BW/FULLDISC/index.htm

#6327 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 11:32 am

GFS still wants to develop a monster right off Africa...that would be devastating for the Cape Verde islands and a meteorological enigma...

ROCK · #6328 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:49 pm

EURO blowing up something in the MDR....big sucker at 216hrs...around 30W 15N

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013090412&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

#6329 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:54 pm

That monster off Africa would be practically unheard of...I can't find ANY record of such a large, intense storm east of 30W...heck such is rare even east of 50W...

ninel conde · #6330 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 5:35 pm

euro showing an interesting development:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

we can see the beginnings of the wheel. as we can see here thats the perfect pattern for development in the gom and west carib. right on cue the pressures lower in those areas. if a wave can get in there something big could begin.

Hyperstorm · #6331 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 5:39 pm

Latest GFS model coming in.

Very large and potentially dangerous hurricane Humberto developing very quickly near the Cape Verde islands in 3 days.

Season cancel? Don't think so!

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

TheStormExpert · #6332 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 6:07 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:Latest GFS model coming in.

Very large and potentially dangerous hurricane Humberto developing very quickly near the Cape Verde islands in 3 days.

Season cancel? Don't think so!

[img]http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/7029/gj47.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Surprised that many are not paying much attention to this feature the models have been showing. I know there is TD 7 and of course so far anything that has tried to develop after exiting Africa has failed miserably. Even I'm not sold on this yet.

#6333 Postby **SFLcane** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 6:13 pm

High chance it recurves into open Atl.

ninel conde · #6334 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 6:14 pm

that far out its likely to be a fish. too strong too fast. im sure if it were at 12n with a long track west or wnw likely the thread would be jammed.

ninel conde · #6335 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 7:09 pm

18Z gfs shows interesting scenario. this clearly shows JB's wheel developing with th ridge centered further north than normal.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

td 7 has stalled out and a big storm might get trapped on a west path.

thats a 2003 isabel type set up.

isabel was pretty far north at 21n 45w which normally means recurve, but it got caught under a strong ridge and became a westward moving cat5
keep an eye on it even if early runs recurve it.

CYCLONE MIKE · #6336 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:05 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:Latest GFS model coming in.

Very large and potentially dangerous hurricane Humberto developing very quickly near the Cape Verde islands in 3 days.

Season cancel? Don't think so!

[img]http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/7029/gj47.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Surprised that many are not paying much attention to this feature the models have been showing. I know there is TD 7 and of course so far anything that has tried to develop after exiting Africa has failed miserably. Even I'm not sold on this yet.

Nothing is developing right now much less even out there. Plus like others said if something even does develop chances of it being a fish and only threatening ships is very high.

Blinhart · #6337 Postby **Blinhart** » Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:28 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:Latest GFS model coming in.

Very large and potentially dangerous hurricane Humberto developing very quickly near the Cape Verde islands in 3 days.

Season cancel? Don't think so!

[img]http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/7029/gj47.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Surprised that many are not paying much attention to this feature the models have been showing. I know there is TD 7 and of course so far anything that has tried to develop after exiting Africa has failed miserably. Even I'm not sold on this yet.

If the models are correct, the Cape Verde Islands and the Azores Islands could be effected by this system so it wouldn't be a fish.

Nothing is developing right now much less even there. Plus like others said if something even does develop chances of it being a fish a only threatening fish is very high.

ninel conde · #6338 Postby **ninel conde** » Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:02 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013090500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

gfs drops the wheel and the storm beboops out to sea.

it also lowers chances of gom/carib development.

#6339 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:42 am

ninel conde wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013090500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

You have to copy the image to an image site. I made a copy of the 180 hour image

ninel conde · #6340 Postby **ninel conde** » Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:51 am

thanks. as i suspected instead of the wheel building yet another front is reinforcing the east coast trof.

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