Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CONDUCIVE...THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE
PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE
BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST MON SEP 2 2013

.UPDATE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE A LITTLE AND
BOOSTED RAIN ON THU A LITTLE. CHANGES OTHERWISE WERE MINOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THE TREND OF THE 18Z GFS
IN BETTER PROGRESSION OF DRY AIR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS PR/USVI TONIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY 700-400 MB
MOISTURE WHICH IS ERODING THE LEADING SIDE OF THE CONVECTION OVER
LESSER ANTILLES. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON 00Z TFFR SOUNDING OF 2.52
INCHES THOUGH THE BALLOON MAY HAVE FLOWN THROUGH A THUNDERSTORM
AND PARTS OF THE TEMP/DEW POINT TRACE IS LIKELY BAD DATA. THE AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THIS SYSTEM IS SO SMALL THAT ENTRAINMENT IS
RETARDING ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT. DRY AIR OVER PR WILL RETREAT
TO THE WEST ON TUE AND ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AGAIN IN TIME
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PR/USVI. WE COULD HAVE STRONG SUN
TO BEGIN THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION...AT
LEAST INTIALLY.

TROPICAL WAVE ESSENTIALLY HAS A DUAL CENTER NOW. ONE OVER GUADELOUPE
AND THE OTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AT 54W. THE EASTERN PART HAS A MUCH
BROADER AREA OF MOISTURE TO DRAW ON...BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THE
TWO WILL LIKELY MERGE SOMEWHERE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF PR. BELIEVE
THE WAVE CENTER NEAR GUADELOUPE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
PR BUT REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED. THE BIGGER CONCERN REGARDS A
FLOODING THREAT. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN THE FIRST WAVE
BEING OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THU MORNING WITH A DEEP SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. GFS SHOWS US IN VICINITY OF A TROPICAL
PLUME FOR AN ENTIRE WEEK AFTERWARD. BUT THE TIMING OF FLOODING
RAINS AND LOCATION OF THIS POTENTIAL MOIST FLOW ARE BOTH A BIG
QUESTION. MODELS ALSO HAVEN/T BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE EITHER.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The word is rain and that will be the dominant weather for the next 2-3 days for PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHERE THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE RECEIVED THE BEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AS A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED BEST MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE TIMING OF FLOODING RAINS AND LOCATION OF THIS
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS NOT YET CLEAR.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS
EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...MAINLY AFFECTING TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ.
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PR...LIKELY CAUSING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO TJMZ STARTING AT 03/17Z
TIL 03/22Z. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WILL
CAUSE AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
MOVING INTO TIST/TISX. PERSISTENT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA STARTING TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 85 77 / 60 50 70 50
STT 83 81 87 81 / 60 70 70 50

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR DOMINICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO

[Gustywind]

8 AM Tropical Weather Discussion ( related to Invest 97L crossing the Lesser Antilles).

THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W AND IS MOVING NEAR 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 59W-63W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

[msbee]

We are having a heavy rainstorm here right now!

[msbee]

short and heavy
about 3/4 inch in 1/2 hour! clear now!

[Gustywind]

short and heavy
about 3/4 inch in 1/2 hour! clear now!

Looks like more is to come for Guadeloupe but in vicinity of PR and the Northern Leewards! Let,s be on our guard islanders. Moreover, another moderate to active twave is behind 97L.

[Gustywind]

short and heavy
about 3/4 inch in 1/2 hour! clear now!

Well showered!

[cycloneye]

UPDATE...CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE ELONGATED TROUGH APPEARS FROM
JUST NORTH OF VENEZUELA...ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE...TO AN AREA NEAR 15 NORTH 52 WEST IN THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AM EXPECTING HEAVY SHOWERS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO
BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY ON THE EASTERN COAST...HAVE
BEGUN THE AFTERNOON CYCLE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND EXPECT A FAIRLY
SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO FROM THE LUQUILLO RANGE
TO HORMIGUEROS. THE AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA TO BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND SANTA LUCIA
AND INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME
SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NOW. THE NEW GFS RUN
FROM 03/12Z CONTINUES THE TREND OF DELAYING AND PROLONGING THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SUCH THAT HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD BEGIN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
AMOUNT AND FREQUENCY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT
GUSTS IN LOCAL AREAS TO REACH BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN OR UPSTREAM FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. ONE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL...THE NAM5...DOES DEPICT AREAS OF 40 MPH
SUSTAINED IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
IN GENERAL MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING NO MORE THAN 20 MPH OVER ANY
BUT SMALL LOCAL AREAS. AFTER WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA IN SLOWLY DIMINISHING QUANTITIES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL BE BY ANY
MEANS CONTINUOUS. AFTER WEDNESDAY THERE SHOULD BE MORE RAIN-FREE
TIME THAN NOT...THOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL
DURING THIS TIME.

[BatzVI]

This has just come out from NWS San Juan

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* A SLOW MOVING TROUGH STRETCHING FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE AFFECTING THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH
SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES AND WILL BE CARRYING AREAS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW OF MOIST AIR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

* SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FREQUENCY...AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.
URBAN AREAS AND MANY STREAMS IN THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS MAY ALSO
FLOOD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FIRST AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LATER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS EXPECTED
BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASING RISK OF MUDSLIDES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE RAINS.

[cycloneye]

Rain and more rain for next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
REMAIN OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM VENEZUELA
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO BEGINNING IN
THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY AND QUICKLY SPREAD TO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE ISLAND BY MID-AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTHEAST...AREAS OF
CONVECTION WERE SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN APEX OF THE TROUGH NOW
JUST INSIDE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT CURRENT RATE OF
MOVEMENT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WOULD REACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND LATER
TONIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH ACROSS PUERTO RICO EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THEY
DIFFER IN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY TO EXPECT AFTER PASSAGE. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
UPSTREAM OF OR OVER OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABOUT A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DOING SO IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO
THE HURRICANE CENTER. IN EITHER CASE...IT WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO COME IN BANDS OR AREAS THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT EXPECT THE NEXT 72 HOURS TO CARRY
CONTINUOUS RAINS DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES 100 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS BY FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING AT 10 AM AST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF IS WETTER AT LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SCENARIO BECAUSE THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS
SO MUCH MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ALSO THE GFS HAS INITIALIZED
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TOO LOW THIS MORNING BY ABOUT ONE QUARTER
INCH. DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS CHANGED FROM LESS MOISTURE
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST THAT NOT ONLY PULLS MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALSO CAUSES WINDS AT
700 MB TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST OF SOUTH. THIS OUTCOME IS LESS
CERTAIN...BUT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME AT USVI TERMINALS AND TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 03/22Z.
AFT 04/05Z EXPECT SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD
MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AS AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LLVL WINDS ENE-E 12 TO 25 KTS UNTIL
04/15Z...BCMG ESE-SE 15 TO 30KT.

&&

.MARINE...AT PRESENT THE TROUGH HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION OR DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT BUOY 42060 SOUTHEAST
OF OUR AREA SINCE 01/00Z AND IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WERE 23
KNOTS GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THE FORECAST AREA BUT IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT AT 10 AM AST
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO A STRONGLY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND CARRY MOIST
AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS INDICATED AT PRESENT...THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 85 79 87 / 60 60 50 50
STT 79 87 79 89 / 60 60 70 70

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Tropical Weather Discussion (related to 97L).

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 63W FROM
21N TO 10N MOVING WNW AT 10 KNOTS. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N63W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER PR BY THU AND
ESTABLISH BETWEEN THE DOM REP AND PR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVR THE ERN CARIB WILL MOVE WNW PASSING
SOUTH OF PR WED NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A VERY WET SCENARIO
FOR PR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE ERN CARIB WED-WED NIGHT THEN WITH A
LONG FETCH SE FLOW THU-FRI AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES STILL SHOW UP ON THE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF WHEN THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH GFS SHOWING WED-WED NIGHT AND ECMWF
INDICATING WED NIGHT-THU. ANYWAY...MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LOOK PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WED-FRI TO SUSTAIN LONG PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WHEN YOU ADD TOPOGRAPHY INTO THE MIX
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT THREE-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS. IS
NOT REALLY UNTIL SAT WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
NOT LONGER SUPPORT LONG PERIODS OF RAIN. BUT EVEN THEN...MOIST
SSE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FCST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IS
NOT UNTIL LATE MON WHEN TRADES FINALLY ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION
AND ATMOSPHERE RETURNS TO NORMAL.

LOOKING AT SATELLITE TRENDS IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THE GFS TIMING
OF LATE WED THRU WED NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL. ALSO...SATELLITE BASED RAINFALL ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST
24 HRS SHOW 4-8 INCHES FELL OVER A LARGE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
ANTILLES. WHEN YOU LOOK AT A THREE-DAY EVENT AVERAGE AMOUNTS
TYPICALLY AVERAGE OUT TO 10 INCHES. WHEN LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH WE ARE CALLING FOR 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE FRI
MORNING. I BELIEVE OUR CURR FORECAST IS UNDERDONE AND WILL BE
RAISING TOTALS TO MATCH UP SATELLITE BASED RAINFALL ESTIMATES
WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

[Macrocane]

Hi everyone!

Latest discussion for the Caribbean and Central America:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 03/00UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST USA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT LOWS LIE TO THE SOUTH...WITH ONE
OVER COAHUILA IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE OTHER OVER THE GULF AT
25N 92W. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE LOWS ARE
TO RETROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...WHERE THROUGH
36-48 HRS THEY ARE TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ALONG 25N/27N.
THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO. OVER SONORA-SINALOA...CONVECTION IS TO
CLUSTER ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
EXPECTING GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION. INITIALLY EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. THROUGH
72-96 HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM.

SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A LOW ALONG THE ITCZ SUSTAINS A
BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...WITH NHC MONITORING FOR
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. MEANWHILE...THIS IS
DRAWING THE ITCZ NORTH INTO SOUTHERN GUERRERO-COLIMA/CENTRAL
STATES OF MEXICO. AS IT HOLDS...THIS WILL SUSTAIN HEAVY CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 72-84 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.

EAST OVER THE BASIN...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...WITH AXIS TO
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 48-60
HRS. THIS IS TO THEN LAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE
ALOFT IS TO FAVOR A DIVERGENT PATTERN THAT IS TO VENT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA-PUERTO RICO-ISLAND CHAIN. IN THIS
AREA HEAVY RAINS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES THROUGH 48-60 HRS. SEE BELOW
FOR DETAILS. OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH/ITCZ CONVERGENCE IS SHIFTING TO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF COLOMBIA-SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA TO VENEZUELA IS EXPECTED ALONG 10N.
BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE CYCLE AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE WESTERN PLAINS OF COLOMBIA/ANDEAN REGION
INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. BUT AS THE ITCZ MEANDERS NORTH THIS WILL DECREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.

AS THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN IT IS TO
DISPLACE A TUTT TO THE WEST. THE TUTT LOW CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N 76W. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS TO
MEANDER WEST INTO THE CAYMAN ISLES...WHERE IT IS TO QUICKLY WEAKEN
TO AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS THEN MOVES ACROSS NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER ON DAY 03. ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN
CUBA THIS IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLES
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
THROUGH 72 HRS THIS INCREASES TO 15-25MM. OVER NICARAGUA-HONDURAS
IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
39W 43W 46W 49W 53W 56W 60W 62W TW
56W 59W 62W 64W 65W 68W 70W --W TW
62W 64W 66W 68W 71W 73W 75W 77W TW
74W 75W 77W 80W 82W 85W 87W 89W TUTT INDUCED
87W 91W 93W 94W 95W 96W 97W 98W EW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES LATER
ON DAY 03. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A WEAKER PERTURBATION TO
MAKE LANDFALL AS AXIS TENDS TO SHEAR UNDER BUILDING CELL OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN LATER
IN THE CYCLE IT WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W AND THE ONE ALONG 62W ARE TO GRADUALLY
PHASE AS THE LATTER MIGRATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT
IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
TO POOL ACROSS PUERTO RICO-VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLES TO HISPANIOLA.
EARLY IN THE CYCLE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FRENCH-LEEWARD TO VIRGIN ISLES WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. AS IT ENTERS PUERTO
RICO-EASTERN HISPANIOLA THIS WILL INCREASE TO 25-50MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 150-200MM. ACROSS HAITI IT IS
TO THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM BY 72-84 HRS. THROUGH 96 HRS MAXIMA IS TO INCREASE TO
30-60MM. OVER THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ACROSS
JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA LATER ON DAY 04. OVER THE ABC ISLES TO
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM BY 36-60 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA THIS IS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 35-70MM BY 60-84 HRS.

TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUSTAINS A PERTURBATION IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL EASTERLIES. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. AS IT ENTERS NICARAGUA/HONDURAS LATER IN THE CYCLE IT IS TO
THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY.

EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 87W IS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN EARLY IN THE CYCLE. OVER
WESTERN CUBA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE OVER THE YUCATAN EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL MEXICO
THIS IS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. THIS IS TO BUILD WEST AND NORTH ACROSS MEXICO TO ENVELOP
THE NORTHEAST STATES LATER IN THE CYCLE....WHERE IN INTERACTION
WITH TUTT ALOFT IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.

MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Plenty of rain is expected in the next few days as the low pressure moves slowly NW.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST WED SEP 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST
TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY UNSTABLE AND
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR 150 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...WITH COLD TOPS OF
-74C IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. ALSO...RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED A MID
LEVEL ROTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. PER
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

MODELS CONTINUES VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HISTORICALLY...EXISTS PRECEDENT THAT WE DONT NEED
ORGANIZED SYSTEM...TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. VERY-SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS
LIKE THIS ONE...HAS PRODUCED FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE PAST. THEREFORE...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY
AS SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VARIABLE AND
GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 25KTS...CIGS AT AROUND FL030 OR LOWER
POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS
TODAY AS IT AFFECTS TNCM/TKPK FIRST...THEN MOVING TO THE NE AND
AFFECTING TJBQ/TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE ISSUED AS
VISIBILITY AND WINDS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE PASSING SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AMZ-710 WHERE SEAS
UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 78 / 100 100 80 70
STT 88 83 88 81 / 100 100 80 70

[Gustywind]

Be aware Cycloneye, looks like very wet weather conditions are expected in PR! Keep us informed as usual...

Whereas, far east... round of showers is coming in our way as a twave just east of the Leewards shoud bring strong showers and tstorms later today till Friday. Let's see what happens with this feature.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 21N57W TO 11N55W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING AND AMPLIFIED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CONVECTION LOOKS MORE ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
CONCENTRATE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL WAVE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 54W-
59W.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

September 04, 2013; 6:00 AM

Low pressure south of Puerto Rico will bring heavy rain to the area and will be watched for development.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe stays in yellow and should... till Friday morning if the wet weather scenario continues and... is expected given the latest weather forecast of our Pro Mets of Meteo-France 6AM.

Map related to the yellow alert: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

Weather Forecast:rarrow: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf (French version)

Level of vigilance: yellow.

Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Validity: until Thursday 5 September included.

Current situation:The weather situation is influenced by two disturbed systems: one crossed the Guadeloupe yesterday and now moves in the sea of the Caribbean to Puerto Rico with a potential low pressure; the other located on the nearby Atlantic will concern our island this morning.

Forecasts: After a lull last night, rains become again more frequent today and can take locally a stormy character. Rainfall values are expected to reach 50 to 100 millimeters in some areas during 12 hours. No improvement is expected by the end of Thursday.

Observed data:
Surveys of the gauges over the last 24 hours:

-Le Raizet Abymes: 29 mm
-Baie-Mahault ( Convenance) : 46 mm
-Les Mamelles: 134 mm
-Pointe-Noire Bellevue: 74 mm
-Moule (Lauréal): 35 mm
-Sainte-Rose Cluny: 31 mm
-Capesterre Belle-Eau (Neufchâteau): 64 mm
-Petite-Terre: 32 mm

Next newsletter: Wednesday September 4, 2013 at 5PM.