Texas Summer - 2013

[weatherdude1108]

I'm just really hoping that most of the cold fronts this year are accompanied by at least a line of showers and thunderstorms. The fire threat will likely be pretty high if we get a lot of dry fronts this year. I hate Red Flag Warnings with a passion!

I'm with you on that one! Those dry fronts may feel nice, but they really do add insult to an injured drought-entrenched area we are living in. Thank you PDO! Praying and hoping for moisture to pool and stick around this Fall with the fronts!

I miss the good, ol' days when we'd have an El Nino ... like the time I was trimming my Christmas tree outside under the carport of our small rental duplex, just married, in December 1990, listening to non-stop sirens as folks were being evacuated in the nearby Shoal Creek area of Austin due to high water after two weeks of nonstop rain. Ah, memories ...

I remember that same December 1990 Niño. A couple college friends of mine and I were driving back home from Lubbock to San Antonio on Christmas break. It rained the entire way. It got so heavy at times driving through the hill country, that there were literally cascading waterfalls coming off of the road cuts!
Fun times!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You came through re warming us up (fans and all ) so now its the North's turn



Wxman57 isn't going to be happy.....

[Portastorm]

I like your spirit, Screamer! That's good. We hope you can deliver in a few months ... well, most of us hope so. A few "heat misers" out there are hoping for 70s and 80s all winter.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You fellows really have a great friend re that cockroach ridge....



It isn't that my fans aren't trying. *sigh*

and I'm guessing this fellow must live in Texas

[vbhoutex]

My guess is he lives in NW or NC TX from what I have been able to figure out from postings.

[Ptarmigan]

I'm with you on that one! Those dry fronts may feel nice, but they really do add insult to an injured drought-entrenched area we are living in. Thank you PDO! Praying and hoping for moisture to pool and stick around this Fall with the fronts!

I miss the good, ol' days when we'd have an El Nino ... like the time I was trimming my Christmas tree outside under the carport of our small rental duplex, just married, in December 1990, listening to non-stop sirens as folks were being evacuated in the nearby Shoal Creek area of Austin due to high water after two weeks of nonstop rain. Ah, memories ...

I remember that same December 1990 Niño. A couple college friends of mine and I were driving back home from Lubbock to San Antonio on Christmas break. It rained the entire way. It got so heavy at times driving through the hill country, that there were literally cascading waterfalls coming off of the road cuts!
Fun times!

There was no El Nino in winter of 1990-1991. The following winter of 1991-1992 was El Nino.

[horselattitudesfarm]

This is just plain UGLY!



Hot, still, muggy, and Ozony.....nice.....real nice The atmosphere has died and left its rotting stinking corpse above our heads outgassing noxious ozone.


(To the tune of Don Mclean's American Pie)

.....And they were singing,

Bye, bye north central texas skies
took the Chevy to the levy, but Lake Lavon was dry
Them pro-met boys were drinking whiskey and rye (or Grey Goose )
Singing, this will be the day that it dies
This will be the day that it dies

Helter Skelter in the summer swelter
Might have to cool off in a fallout shelter
Dreaming of clouds that are eight miles high
with rain that is falling fast........


Anyway, I think the heat is making me crazy

[weatherdude1108]

I miss the good, ol' days when we'd have an El Nino ... like the time I was trimming my Christmas tree outside under the carport of our small rental duplex, just married, in December 1990, listening to non-stop sirens as folks were being evacuated in the nearby Shoal Creek area of Austin due to high water after two weeks of nonstop rain. Ah, memories ... [/quote]

I remember that same December 1990 Niño. A couple college friends of mine and I were driving back home from Lubbock to San Antonio on Christmas break. It rained the entire way. It got so heavy at times driving through the hill country, that there were literally cascading waterfalls coming off of the road cuts!
Fun times! [/quote]

There was no El Nino in winter of 1990-1991. The following winter of 1991-1992 was El Nino.[/quote]

Yeah, you're right. My bad. Lake Travis hit an all-time high in December 1991.

" The lakes historic high level is 710.4 feet msl on December 25, 1991. Its historic low level is 614.2 feet msl on August 14 1951."

Source:
http://laketravis.com/about/

[Ntxw]

September 1st is here and we are now in Meteorological fall! Even though it is still hot outside...sentimentally it feels nice

[Portastorm]

There was no El Nino in winter of 1990-1991. The following winter of 1991-1992 was El Nino.

Facts, schmacks ... so I was off a year! It happens when you reach 50.

But thank you Ptarmigan for your meteorological statistical prowess. We need that around here.

[South Texas Storms]

From the EWX afternoon AFD: "LOOKING BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST...RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BOTH BEEN SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL RAIN EVENT AND A POSSIBLE TROPICAL TAP LATE NEXT WEEK."

I really hope it happens!

[weatherdude1108]

Received almost a tenth of a inch (0.08) of rain tonight with some lightning and thunder at the Weatherdude center!

[Portastorm]

Received almost a tenth of a inch (0.08) of rain tonight with some lightning and thunder at the Weatherdude center!

I saw the lightning and heard a little thunder ... and just wished it would rain. It did not. At least in southwest Austin.

[Rgv20]

Finally September is living up to its name in South Texas....Some welcome rains are in the offering come Thursday and Friday. Of note we are going to have to keep an eye on the Southern GOM/BOC in the 8-12 day range as the GFS hinted at a TC forming and the ECMWF has lower pressures down there.


NWS in Brownsville morning discussion....details well the upcoming Rain Event

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE INCREASING AS THE WINDOW OPENS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS FOR A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. AS THE DOMINATE
RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH TROPICAL
EASTERLIES DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH ONE MAYBE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES TO WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SOUTHERN GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THIS FIRST WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WAVE AND
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING THIS SYSTEM A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH A MORE
DISTINCT TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING IN TANDEM
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE CWA WITH POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING 2.4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY VALUES IN THE EAST AND CHANCES OUT WEST.
GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER LOW AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE WAVE AND SEA BREEZE COMBINING SHOULD RESULT IN
THE HIGH POPS SPREADING INLAND EARLY THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF AND FRIDAY
ACROSS BOTH INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE AUG NORMAL. PERSISTENT DEEP AND LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW TO ALLOW SEABREEZE TO AID WITH CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. UPPER
SUPPORT IS LACKING THIS DAY BUT BELIEVE THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM
THE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS
VERY PERSISTENT WITH HIGH POPS ON FRIDAY. THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH QFP VALUES
FROM GFS AND HPC INDICATING AREAS SEEING AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES WHICH
IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THIS TYPE OF EVENT.

POPS ARE INDICATED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT COULD
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE TROPICAL
EASTERLIES. OVERNIGHT MARINE CONVECTION AND INLAND ENHANCEMENT AS
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST. SUPPORT IN
THE WAY OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MIGHT ADD TO THE MIX WITH THE OPPORTUNITY TO RAISE
THE CHANCE OF POP MORE THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGEST ARE IN THE
OFFERING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWER A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. SOME RECOVERY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RAIN CHANCES
WANE.

[South Texas Storms]

That's awesome Rgv! I hope much of Texas has a wet September!


Any idea of how the PDO did in August Ntxw? I see that today is the first day since late July that Nino 3.4 is positive!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Rainfall totals thru Sunday morning shows widespread beneficial rains to South Texas!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Portastorm]

I'll believe it when I see the radar lit up.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Yet again another donut hole for us this week with regards to rainfall. WTF!


Its one thing when it doesn't rain anywhere around here, but when there are .5" to 2" totals all around me I start to take it personally.

[Portastorm]

Man, I don't know where it came from ... but somehow overnight, the PWC picked up an unexpected .10 inches of rain from an overnight storm. Nice little surprise.

BTW, anyone look at the 0z GFS? The 8-16 day period shows 4 1/2 inches of rain for the Austin area. Wish that would come true!

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah Porta I saw it! It would be awesome if it verified!