ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[alienstorm]

LLC seems to be at the SW corner you can see the streamers coming into it. Movement is still WNW, but the developing LLC could be tucked a little further W and N as the day progresses. But I would say a TD is pretty much there probably waiting for plane to analyze before officially announcing it.



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[tolakram]

Saved loop from the NRL site.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Looks like the disturbance to the east is losing the battle. This may change future model output that kept the northern disturbance more robust. IF it's really losing the battle.

[alienstorm]

Here is the center of the LLC coming into view at the PR Radar



This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

['CaneFreak]

Wow. Convergence has doubled in the last 3 hours over 97L.

3 hours ago: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=conv&zoom=&time=-1

Now: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=conv&zoom=&time=

[tailgater]

I think your circle is a little too far SW, I think it's just to the left of that yellow/orange blob.

[Fego]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1159 AM AST WED SEP 4 2013
....
DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A CENTER ESTIMATED TO
BE ABOUT 16.2 NORTH 66 WEST MOVING ABOUT 11 KNOTS TOWARD 280
DEGREES. HOWEVER IT IS JUST OUT OF RANGE OF LOCAL RADAR SO CANNOT
ASCERTAIN IF THERE IS A TRUE CIRCULATION OR JUST THE NORTHERN APEX
OF THE TROUGH NOW ROTATING THROUGH. OF NOTE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT IS SHOWING STRONG ACTIVITY NEAR 18.25 N 60 W.
THESE TWO CENTERS HAVE BEEN CLOSING ON EACH OTHER FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THEY WILL MERGE SINCE THE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHEAST APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWEST PRESENTLY.
SATELLITE CENTER EXPECTS THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN ROTATION NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ANY
EVENT THIS STILL LEAVES CONSIDERABLE RAIN FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO 6 IN 24
HOURS AND 5 TO 10 NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH HAVE LOWERED ACTUAL QPF
FIGURES SOMEWHAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO.

[blp]

I think the reason the East vort is taking off in the models is that the west vort may get disrupted with the close land interaction and weaken considerably allowing the East vort the ability to steal back the energy. Otherwise, I don't see any other reason given current trends why the West vort does not take over, it has all the support at the low and mid levels and the strong convergence now.

[HurriGuy]

I still question if there really is a LLC under all that convection. I also still question these models because it honestly still looks to be on a west to west-northwest track. This system seems too small and too weak to be pulled up by the trough. Does the models now have the trough digging deeper south?

[Frank P]

I would be really surprised if the HHs do not find a TD with this system during recon based on the most recent vis sat loops... continues to get better organized with more convection.... and looks like a LLC being wrapped up in the system based on low level cloud flow from the sat loops .. Still looks to be WNW to me, maybe a hint north of WNW....

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[alienstorm]

We will soon know the status as the recon has taken off and get a good handle on what is happening.

[tolakram]

Live loop, one bad frame. Speed up for full effect.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[Alyono]

radar also shows a better defined circ and banding

[GCANE]

Looking at the two East Carib Buoys, winds swinging around to the correct directions indicating a surface circulation forming.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml

Pressures have not started to drop yet though.

[ROCK]

PR is about to get hammered tonight...sorry PR folks......

radar does show center and convection filling in the feeder bands.....reminds me of Humberto when we could track it by radar and made its approach on High Island....

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[Aric Dunn]

THe circ maybe a little farther to the ssw than the radar showing.. seeing some cross motion through the mid level circ on radar.. hard to tell atm may also just be elongated still

[HurriGuy]

Live loop, one bad frame. Speed up for full effect.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

Thanks for posting this. It really helped me see the overall circulation.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone now pretty much over the top of the COC now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

A direct result of the 4 hour hot tower this morning.

Dramatic improvement in outflow.

High rain rate.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/nexsat/thumbs/region_size/NW_Atlantic/Caribbean/precip/geo_blended/20130904.1645.goes13.rain.nexsat_Caribbean.0.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

Though from recon... circ does not appear to be near the MLC

[Hammy]

I've had doubts since early this morning that there was any well defined circulation any longer, it appears to be a very sharp trough as I don't see any evidence of NW-W-WSW winds anywhere.