#20 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:01 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 32.3N
177.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE SHEARLINE WITH NO DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE
CENTRAL CIRCULATION BUT INDICATES WINDS WITHIN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM ARE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOP SHOWS A SLIGHT ELONGATION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A BAND
OF DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
IMPROVING, CURRENTLY 27 DEGREES CELSIUS, AS THE CIRCULATION SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHWARD. BASED ON THE ELONGATION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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