ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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Alyono
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#801 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:50 pm

recon has not yet reached the center. They may fly slightly west of the center then come back to fix... if it is there
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#802 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:52 pm

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#803 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:52 pm

Alyono wrote:recon has not yet reached the center. They may fly slightly west of the center then come back to fix... if it is there


right not reached it.. but the wind profile thus far is not pointing towards any llc under the MLC seen on radar.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#804 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:52 pm

:uarrow: I agree, recon now reporting straight north winds now, so it is in the NW quadrant of the possible LLC location.
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Re: Re:

#805 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:54 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:recon has not yet reached the center. They may fly slightly west of the center then come back to fix... if it is there


right not reached it.. but the wind profile thus far is not pointing towards any llc under the MLC seen on radar.



Actually, I think it missed the MLC, MLC is closer to 65W
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Re: Re:

#806 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:56 pm

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:recon has not yet reached the center. They may fly slightly west of the center then come back to fix... if it is there


right not reached it.. but the wind profile thus far is not pointing towards any llc under the MLC seen on radar.



Actually, I think it missed the MLC, MLC is closer to 65W


thats what I was saying the MLC on radar not located where recon found that wind shift. :)
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#807 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:00 pm

Plenty of west winds found.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#808 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:00 pm

50%-60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM STILL LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM.
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#809 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:01 pm

Now can they find the LLC? It seems there is one but they need to close it off.
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#810 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:02 pm

recon just found a closed low. Not sure where NHC is getting no well defined center
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#811 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:02 pm

Pressure reading where it found the wind shift seem to be too high of 1011mb, the LLC might be reforming closer to the MLC, lets see what it finds when it samples that area.
Either that or it is still elongated.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#812 Postby HurriGuy » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:03 pm

so did recon find a closed low or not. NHC says there is no closed low?
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Re:

#813 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:03 pm

Alyono wrote:recon just found a closed low. Not sure where NHC is getting no well defined center


It may be elongated or poorly defined though. They definitely did not travel through an LLC as pressure never dropped. They need to look along that axis.
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#814 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:03 pm

Alyono wrote:recon just found a closed low. Not sure where NHC is getting no well defined center


the TWO only mentioned satellite a radar and surface no recon :) idk NHC weird sometimes...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#815 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:04 pm

HurriGuy wrote:so did recon find a closed low or not. NHC says there is no closed low?


Wind shift yes, but not a well-defined LLC yet. There may be one elsewhere in the circulation though, or it may be elongated.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#816 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:04 pm

HurriGuy wrote:so did recon find a closed low or not. NHC says there is no closed low?



Noticed that they said: "based on radar and satellite" not based off of the recon flight.

Edit to correct myself: they said: "based out of surface and satellite data"
Last edited by NDG on Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#817 Postby lester » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:06 pm

Alyono wrote:recon just found a closed low. Not sure where NHC is getting no well defined center


the west winds came at the same time the TWO was published so they probably didn't see it in time
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Re: Re:

#818 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:08 pm

lester wrote:
Alyono wrote:recon just found a closed low. Not sure where NHC is getting no well defined center


the west winds came at the same time the TWO was published so they probably didn't see it in time


TWO was probably written ~15 mins earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#819 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurriGuy wrote:so did recon find a closed low or not. NHC says there is no closed low?


Wind shift yes, but not a well-defined LLC yet. There may be one elsewhere in the circulation though, or it may be elongated.


definitely more a trough axis there where they flew through could be just really elongated as you said too.
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#820 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:11 pm

Winds less than 10 knots (and in this case, most are 6 knots or less) is generally considered "light and variable", isn't it? Definitely not something I'd hang my hat on as a definite circulation of any type.
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