ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

so did recon find a closed low or not. NHC says there is no closed low?

Noticed that they said: "based on radar and satellite" not based off of the recon flight.

Edit to correct myself: they said: "based out of surface and satellite data"

oops...did not read that close. Thanks for the correction. Now recon has my intention.

[Alyono]

decent SW winds now... looks like this has a closed center

[Caribwxgirl]

decent SW winds now... looks like this has a closed center

So does this mean they might upgrade soon?

[Aric Dunn]

decent SW winds now... looks like this has a closed center

very broad and elongated.. seen them upgrade with a less noticeable circ though. however that is a very large area of light winds could be boundary still mixed in there..

[NDG]

so did recon find a closed low or not. NHC says there is no closed low?

Wind shift yes, but not a well-defined LLC yet. There may be one elsewhere in the circulation though, or it may be elongated.

definitely more a trough axis there where they flew through could be just really elongated as you said too.

Again, IMO, if they would had said that it lacks a well defined circulation they would had mentioned that it was based off of the recon as well, but no mention of it.
I think the TWO was written well before the recon got to that area.
Just my opinion.

[Hammy]

decent SW winds now... looks like this has a closed center

very broad and elongated.. seen them upgrade with a less noticeable circ though. however that is a very large area of light winds could be boundary still mixed in there..

possible given the proximity to land, but I'm still thinking they may wait--it still doesn't seem particularly organized at the moment.

[HurriGuy]

I dont think the wind speed is there to update it to anything. Just look at recon....10 to 15 knots isn't really promising. Maybe something will turn up.

[gatorcane]

Why is it we always have to wait for RECON. Just looking at the VIS loop GIF today, that certainly does not look like a tropical wave at all. Good circulation, persistent convection..what more do we need to call this depression?

[hurrtracker79]

I dont think the wind speed is there to update it to anything. Just look at recon....10 to 15 knots isn't really promising. Maybe something will turn up.

Look at the last few visible frames, appears to be tightening up there....

[Hurricane Alexis]

Why is it we always have to wait for RECON. Just looking at the VIS loop GIF today, that certainly does not look like a tropical wave at all. Good circulation, persistent convection..what more do we need to call this depression?

http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/2752/bqi.gif

Dorian's remnants looked similar to this at it's best and recon found no surface low anywhere.

[Riptide]

I dont think the wind speed is there to update it to anything. Just look at recon....10 to 15 knots isn't really promising. Maybe something will turn up.

This one is just getting started, give it a few more hours.

[NDG]

I dont think the wind speed is there to update it to anything. Just look at recon....10 to 15 knots isn't really promising. Maybe something will turn up.

They have not finished sampling 97L.
IMO they have been in the weakest quadrants, NW & SW.
They could find stronger winds where the MLC is and where the LLC could be reforming, a pressure of only 1011 mb does not make sense when there has been readings of 1008mb by buoys earlier, so in my opinion they missed the true LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Why is it we always have to wait for RECON. Just looking at the VIS loop GIF today, that certainly does not look like a tropical wave at all. Good circulation, persistent convection..what more do we need to call this depression?

[img]http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/2752/bqi.gif[/im
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a little more defined circ.... this not a well defined circ.. that is a very large area of light winds more a trough atm but given the trends it may not take much longer to tighten up... I personally would upgrade given the good environment.

[Hurricane Alexis]

It looks like it's already merging with the wave to the east.

[MaineWeatherNut]

I dont think the wind speed is there to update it to anything. Just look at recon....10 to 15 knots isn't really promising. Maybe something will turn up.

This ons is just getting started, give it a few more hours.

Also there is no required wind speed for a Tropical Depression. All you need for them to upgrade to a Tropical Depression is a Closed Surface circulation and enough organized Convection... So no matter what the wind speeds are as long as they are below 40mph and they find a Closed Circulation then they can and should upgrade.

[Airboy]

From the recon data it's looks like a closed circulation to me, even if it's weak. But it's probably just got established and will start getting stronger now.

[Hammy]

It looks like it's already merging with the wave to the east.

If anything the eastern system is getting absorbed, otherwise there would not be a large flow of southerly winds to the east. And that said, concerning winds, they have only investigated the weaker side so far.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe the SE to NW pass may have a better wind shift.. could just be a weak elongated sw quad they flew through.

['CaneFreak]

I think the area of lower pressure they found was most likely just a low level eddy. I think they will find something further east under the convection.

Maybe the SE to NW pass may have a better wind shift.. could just be a weak elongated sw quad they flew through.

[NDG]

Maybe the SE to NW pass may have a better wind shift.. could just be a weak elongated sw quad they flew through.

Exactly, there is just too much SW & SSW winds in the SE quadrandt of the "wind shift" area.