Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

8 AM Tropical Weather Discussion.

1-CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 15N64W LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
63W-65W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
62W-67W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SPREAD
OVER PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.


2-A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO 12N59W AND IS MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT ASSISTING IN THE GENERATION
OF NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
56W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-21N
BETWEEN 53W-60W.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%-60%.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[msbee]

Up to 40%-60%.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

Good morning Luis. As often is the case, I am confused. Is this statement related to the system located South of you and in the Caribbean already? I believe it is. What about the "blob" East of us, still in the Atlantic?
What can we expect from that? Are they issuing updates on that one?

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%-60%.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

Good morning Luis. As often is the case, I am confused. Is this statement related to the system located South of you and in the Caribbean already? I believe it is. What about the "blob" East of us, still in the Atlantic?
What can we expect from that? Are they issuing updates on that one?

http://img.stormcarib.com/AVN_crop.jpg

Nothing from NHC about development from that area yet. Let's see if that changes later on.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1159 AM AST WED SEP 4 2013

.UPDATE...STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SAINT CROIX CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST AND THE
COAST OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT FLOW THROUGH THE AREA IS
STRONGER THAN THE ACTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. ALSO NOTABLE IS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AN ARC IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
RADAR INDICATES GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE BEST SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A CENTER ESTIMATED TO
BE ABOUT 16.2 NORTH 66 WEST MOVING ABOUT 11 KNOTS TOWARD 280
DEGREES. HOWEVER IT IS JUST OUT OF RANGE OF LOCAL RADAR SO CANNOT
ASCERTAIN IF THERE IS A TRUE CIRCULATION OR JUST THE NORTHERN APEX
OF THE TROUGH NOW ROTATING THROUGH. OF NOTE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT IS SHOWING STRONG ACTIVITY NEAR 18.25 N 60 W.
THESE TWO CENTERS HAVE BEEN CLOSING ON EACH OTHER FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THEY WILL MERGE SINCE THE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHEAST APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWEST PRESENTLY.
SATELLITE CENTER EXPECTS THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN ROTATION NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ANY
EVENT THIS STILL LEAVES CONSIDERABLE RAIN FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO 6 IN 24
HOURS AND 5 TO 10 NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH HAVE LOWERED ACTUAL QPF
FIGURES SOMEWHAT OUTSIDE OF EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook up to 50%-60%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM STILL LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM.

[msbee]

St Maarten sees to be right in between these 2 systems.
I hope they don't decide to join right over us!

[Gustywind]

St Maarten sees to be right in between these 2 systems.
I hope they don't decide to join right over us!

Yeah Barbara, that will the worst weather scenario! . Let's hope that these two systems stays like that and move away with not much increasing. But as we never know in the tropics, the best to do is to wait and see how the situation evolves.

[Macrocane]

Stay safe and dry.

The latest HPC Discussion

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2013

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 04/00UTC: CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXPECTING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
USA/EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THIS IS TO GENERALLY
HOLD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER RIDGE LIES TO THE
SOUTH...WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO/THE YUCATAN TO
THE GULF. A NARROW/ELONGATED TUTT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SEPARATES
THESE RIDGE...WITH AXIS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO
COAHUILA/TAMAULIPAS. AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS TO THE NORTH...THIS
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVE IS INITIALLY EXPECTED
ON THE WESTERN STATES OF SONORA-SINALOA...WITH CELLS CLUSTERING
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO CONVECTION BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH 72-84 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY.

SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A LOW ALONG THE ITCZ SUSTAINS A
BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
COLIMA/GUERRERO. THIS IS DRAWING THE ITCZ NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...WHERE IT IS ENHANCING COASTAL
CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. THROUGH 84 HRS
THIS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TO THEN SHIFT NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
BAJA PENINSULA...TO INITIALLY FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THROUGH 72-96 HRS THIS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-30MM AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.

EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AT 250 HPA...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE BASIN. EARLY IN THE
CYCLE IT IS TO ESTABLISH A FOOTHOLD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
AND THROUGH 72-84 HRS IT WILL AMPLIFY TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
RIDGE ALOFT...AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL
SUSTAIN A DIVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...MEANWHILE FAVORING ORGANIZED HEAVY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS).
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH/ITCZ
CONVERGENCE REMAINS NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION...HUGGING
THE CARIBBEAN COAST WHILE MEANDERING ACROSS THE ABC ISLES. AS A
RESULT...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA TO VENEZUELA
IS TO CLUSTER ALONG 10N. BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BY 36-84 HRS AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT 40-80MM. ON
THE WESTERN PLAINS OF COLOMBIA/ANDEAN REGION EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM...WHILE OVER THE ABC ISLES ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK
AT 35-70MM BY 24-48 HRS.

AS THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN...IT IS TO
PRESS AGAINST A TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THROUGH 36-48 HRS
THE RIDGE IS TO DISPLACE THE TUTT INTO EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST
HONDURAS...AND BY 72 HRS IT WILL MOVE TO WESTERN HONDURAS/
GUATEMALA-BELIZE. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A PERTURBATION IN THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...AND AS THEY INTERACT...EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA-CAYMAN ISLES-CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA
(SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS).

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
46W 49W 52W 55W 58W 62W DISSIPATES TW
61W 64W 68W 71W 74W 77W DISSIPATES TW
65W 68W 70W 73W 75W 78W 79W 81W TW
76W 80W 82W 84W 86W 89W 92W 94W TUTT INDUCED
91W 93W 95W 97W 99W 101W 103W 105W EW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE...AND IT IS TO NEARLY
DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON DAY 03. A SAL
EVENT ACCOMPANIES THIS PERTURBATION...AND THIS WILL BRING
DRY/STABLE AIR AND DUST TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH
DAY 03.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W AND THE ONE ALONG 65W SUSTAIN A BROAD AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THIS WILL SUSTAIN HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE USVI-PUERTO RICO WITH ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 100-150MM. STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING AND RISK OF ECHO
TRAINING COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 250MM. FURTHERMORE...AS A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE TO THEN
PERSIST THROUGH 72-96 HRS. THROUGH 36-48HRS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. OVER HAITI EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE BY 48-96
HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OVER
THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 72 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-100MM. ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM BY 72 HRS. OVER THE ABC ISLES TO
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM BY 36 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA THIS IS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40-80MM BY 48-72 HRS.
HEAVY RAINS ARE TO THEN PERSIST AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE CYCLE.

TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 76W IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE CAYMAN ISLES EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.
OVER CUBA IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH 36-48 HRS. THIS INCREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA LATER ON DAY 03.
AS IT ENTERS NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BY 48 HRS IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE
OVER WESTERN HONDURAS-GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 91W CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A VERY SLOW PACE.
INITIALLY THIS IS TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THIS QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 48-60 HRS...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MEXICO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 72-96 HRS AS THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH A TUTT ALOFT...TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.

MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[Gustywind]

Stay safe and dry.

The latest HPC Discussion

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2013

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 04/00UTC: CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...EXPECTING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
USA/EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THIS IS TO GENERALLY
HOLD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER RIDGE LIES TO THE
SOUTH...WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO/THE YUCATAN TO
THE GULF. A NARROW/ELONGATED TUTT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SEPARATES
THESE RIDGE...WITH AXIS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO
COAHUILA/TAMAULIPAS. AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS TO THE NORTH...THIS
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVE IS INITIALLY EXPECTED
ON THE WESTERN STATES OF SONORA-SINALOA...WITH CELLS CLUSTERING
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO CONVECTION BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH 72-84 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY.

SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A LOW ALONG THE ITCZ SUSTAINS A
BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
COLIMA/GUERRERO. THIS IS DRAWING THE ITCZ NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...WHERE IT IS ENHANCING COASTAL
CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. THROUGH 84 HRS
THIS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TO THEN SHIFT NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
BAJA PENINSULA...TO INITIALLY FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THROUGH 72-96 HRS THIS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-30MM AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.

EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AT 250 HPA...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE BASIN. EARLY IN THE
CYCLE IT IS TO ESTABLISH A FOOTHOLD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
AND THROUGH 72-84 HRS IT WILL AMPLIFY TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
RIDGE ALOFT...AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL
SUSTAIN A DIVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...MEANWHILE FAVORING ORGANIZED HEAVY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS).
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH/ITCZ
CONVERGENCE REMAINS NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION...HUGGING
THE CARIBBEAN COAST WHILE MEANDERING ACROSS THE ABC ISLES. AS A
RESULT...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA TO VENEZUELA
IS TO CLUSTER ALONG 10N. BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BY 36-84 HRS AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT 40-80MM. ON
THE WESTERN PLAINS OF COLOMBIA/ANDEAN REGION EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM...WHILE OVER THE ABC ISLES ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK
AT 35-70MM BY 24-48 HRS.

AS THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN...IT IS TO
PRESS AGAINST A TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THROUGH 36-48 HRS
THE RIDGE IS TO DISPLACE THE TUTT INTO EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST
HONDURAS...AND BY 72 HRS IT WILL MOVE TO WESTERN HONDURAS/
GUATEMALA-BELIZE. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A PERTURBATION IN THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...AND AS THEY INTERACT...EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA-CAYMAN ISLES-CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA
(SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS).

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
46W 49W 52W 55W 58W 62W DISSIPATES TW
61W 64W 68W 71W 74W 77W DISSIPATES TW
65W 68W 70W 73W 75W 78W 79W 81W TW
76W 80W 82W 84W 86W 89W 92W 94W TUTT INDUCED
91W 93W 95W 97W 99W 101W 103W 105W EW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE...AND IT IS TO NEARLY
DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON DAY 03. A SAL
EVENT ACCOMPANIES THIS PERTURBATION...AND THIS WILL BRING
DRY/STABLE AIR AND DUST TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH
DAY 03.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W AND THE ONE ALONG 65W SUSTAIN A BROAD AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THIS WILL SUSTAIN HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE USVI-PUERTO RICO WITH ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 100-150MM. STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING AND RISK OF ECHO
TRAINING COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 250MM. FURTHERMORE...AS A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE TO THEN
PERSIST THROUGH 72-96 HRS. THROUGH 36-48HRS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. OVER HAITI EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE BY 48-96
HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OVER
THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 72 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-100MM. ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM BY 72 HRS. OVER THE ABC ISLES TO
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM BY 36 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA THIS IS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40-80MM BY 48-72 HRS.
HEAVY RAINS ARE TO THEN PERSIST AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE CYCLE.

TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 76W IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE CAYMAN ISLES EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.
OVER CUBA IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH 36-48 HRS. THIS INCREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA LATER ON DAY 03.
AS IT ENTERS NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BY 48 HRS IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE
OVER WESTERN HONDURAS-GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 91W CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A VERY SLOW PACE.
INITIALLY THIS IS TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THIS QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 48-60 HRS...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MEXICO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 72-96 HRS AS THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH A TUTT ALOFT...TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.

MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

Thanks Macrocane

[Gustywind]

2 PM Tropical Weather Discussion.

1-A CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
16N65W...ABOUT 140 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 1.04 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.28 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.18 IN
TRINIDAD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PARTS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY.

2- AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N60W 11N59W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W...FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND 61W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W.
IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN REMAINS
INTACT DURING THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 66.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGO
TO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Gustywind]

Barbara yellow alert is up for the Northern Leewards.


http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

[msbee]

Bkarbara yellow alert is up for the Northern Leewards.


http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

Thans Gusty I am not surprised..looks like that disturbance to the East may give us some heavy rains. so far so good though.

Hoping PR will be OK too...looks like TD 7 is too close for comfort.

[Gustywind]

Bkarbara yellow alert is up for the Northern Leewards.


http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

Thans Gusty I am not surprised..looks like that disturbance to the East may give us some heavy rains. so far so good though.

Hoping PR will be OK too...looks like TD 7 is too close for comfort.

No problem Barbara . Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France, this disturbance is an active twave and is not expected to merge with TD7, but spread strong showers and tstorms till tommorow night. An improvement is forecasted Friday morning So wet day in tape, be on your guard. I have lot of lightnings, thunder continues to rumble!

Hoping for the best for PR, fingers crossed!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 PM AST WED SEP 4 2013

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHEN IT MOVES NORTH A
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWING.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH OF PONCE AT 17 NORTH TO THE MONA CHANNEL.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAINS TO MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...AND
INCREASING WINDS TO THE WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO.
UPPER LEVELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE CARRYING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS WITH HEAVY
RAINS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TRADE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA
DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK ONLY AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAVES
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DUAL POL DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR IS SLOWING THE CENTER OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ABOUT
16.97 NORTH 65.60 WEST. ALTHOUGH IT WAS MOVING TOWARD 280 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS...MOVEMENT HAS STALLED FOR THE MOMENT WHILE THE CORE
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. DUAL POL INSTANTANEOUS PRECIPITATION RATE
EXCEED 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HOLLOW ROTATING CORE. OUTSIDE THE
CORE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
TOWARD THE WEST AND GENERAL AREAS OF RAIN ARE MOVING NORTHWEST
TOWARD SAINT CROIX AND LATER PUERTO RICO. THE HURRICANE CENTER
TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND MONA ISLAND
AROUND 05/14Z. THIS WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT DEVELOPS AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF PUERTO RICO.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC THE FLOW OF MOIST AIR AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN ITS WAKE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AT
LEAST AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FAVOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THIS
WILL ALSO FEED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NORTH.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND...BUT THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM FOR NOW. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR
3-6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND 5 TO 10 IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER
THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND AND LESS THAN 1-2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT THE MOMENT HOWEVER AFT 05/03Z PERIODS OF MVFR
OR EVEN /IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH ALL MOUNTAINS GENERALLY OBSCURED AS SHRA/TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 25-35 KTS...CIGS
AT AROUND FL030 OR LOWER POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLAND. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE 05/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CORE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE
GOING INTO EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD SEEK
SAFE HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 78 88 / 100 80 70 70
STT 78 85 78 87 / 100 80 70 70
[/b]

[Gustywind]

Latest weather forecast for the Northern Leewards. Yellow alert is up!

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

Level of vigilance: yellow

Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms

Validity: Wednesday, September 04, 2013 at 9 p.m. to Friday, September 06, 2013 at 12:00

Current situation: The axis of a relatively active tropical wave is crossing the Caribbean arc.

Forecasts: Rain at the front of this wave begin to spread on the northern part of the Lesser Antilles and take a stormy character tonight. Rainfall values expected should reach between 50-100 millimeters in less than 12 hours . No improvement sustainable is expected before Friday morning.

Observed data: No significant rainfall observed.

Next newsletter: Thursday September 05, 2013 around 06:00 AM.

[CrazyC83]

Created a preps/obs thread for the region.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO about Wave ENE of TD 7.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Tropical Weather Discussion related to the twave ENE TD7.

AN E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N60W TO 10N60W
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 57W-
62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-61W.