ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneDREW92]

Just so everyone remembers, we do have mark up maps for S2K!

Link to the maps here:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113481

Alright I'll give it a try



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Are you still feeling the "East Coast" Vibes?

Yup. Not as strong though

[NDG]

SFMR continue to show tropical storm force winds but under heavy rains in the NE quadrant.

[brunota2003]

Well, I got the reading wrong as well. Error was for SMFR winds, but the value posted was for 10 second gust, so

170026 029 022 003 03

mean flight level of 26
gusts to 29
SFMR of 22
precip rate of 003
error code 03, SFMR suspect

170026 is wind direction from 170 degrees, with a 30 second with of 26 knots.

[Gustywind]

2PM Tropical Weather Discussion.

A CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
16N65W...ABOUT 140 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 1.04 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.28 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.18 IN
TRINIDAD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PARTS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY.

[Aric Dunn]

SFMR continue to show tropical storm force winds but under heavy rains in the NE quadrant.

they are not doing a cross pattern for some reason though..

[adam0983]

I think we have at least a td at 5pm. Looking very impressive this afternoon. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[NDG]

I am surprised they did not flagged this.

193030 1700N 06533W 9700 00353 0104 +215 +215 099038 040 065 031 00

[Alyono]

never use the auto flagger

[NDG]

SFMR continue to show tropical storm force winds but under heavy rains in the NE quadrant.

they are not doing a cross pattern for some reason though..

They did at the end and it looks like the found the LLC further north.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like recon found a different center possibly a little better defined to the NNE of the old wind shift.. could be tightening up. which is right under that need convection on radar and sat ( or the MLC) beginning to develop..

[adam0983]

A general question. I am going on a cruise during the week of September 14-22 to the Eastern Caribbean. Does anyone think there will be any significant storms around Florida or in the Caribbean during this week? I have my fingers crossed there is nothing going to form during this week.

[brunota2003]

I am surprised they did not flagged this.

193030 1700N 06533W 9700 00353 0104 +215 +215 099038 040 065 031 00

It's rain inflated. The auto flagger does not flag the winds due to rain, for some reason.

[alienstorm]

Here you go this is it

[RL3AO]

A general question. I am going on a cruise during the week of September 14-22 to the Eastern Caribbean. Does anyone think there will be any significant storms around Florida or in the Caribbean during this week? I have my fingers crossed there is nothing going to form during this week.

Ask again in five or six days.

[NDG]

looks like recon found a different center possibly a little better defined to the NNE of the old wind shift.. could be tightening up. which is right under that need convection on radar and sat ( or the MLC) beginning to develop..

Yeah, I agree and this could jump directly to a tropical storm by 5 PM update if it continous.

['CaneFreak]

I don't see that in the recon observations in looking at surface pressures nor wind direction shifts. Can you point me to the observations that show this? Thanks.

looks like recon found a different center possibly a little better defined to the NNE of the old wind shift.. could be tightening up. which is right under that need convection on radar and sat ( or the MLC) beginning to develop..

[hurricanes1234]

Could someone please explain why the models are bringing this to a Category 4?

['CaneFreak]

NEVER MIND. They just posted it in the other thread. Got it.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like recon found a different center possibly a little better defined to the NNE of the old wind shift.. could be tightening up. which is right under that need convection on radar and sat ( or the MLC) beginning to develop..

Yeah, I agree and this could jump directly to a tropical storm by 5 PM update if it continous.

exact coords from recon plotted on GR then range rings around it.. the little red dot is the possible center ( developing), and there
was slight pressure drop there unlike the one earlier.

[alienstorm]

A flight level wind of over 60 mph just reported

Time: 19:30:00Z
Coordinates: 17.0N 65.5167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 971.1 mb (~ 28.68 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 348 meters (~ 1,142 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.4 mb (~ 29.84 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 97° at 35 knots (From the E at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 21.8°C (~ 71.2°F)
Dew Pt: 21.8°C (~ 71.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 58 knots (~ 66.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 44 mm/hr (~ 1.73 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data