ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

So now we have at least TD7

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

May be Gabrielle based on recon data.

[adam0983]

Does anyone see this storm being a south Florida threat by the weekend? Just an opinion not a forecast.

[wxman57]

Does anyone see this storm being a south Florida threat by the weekend? Just an opinion not a forecast.

Nope. It may move a little more slowly to the north as it passes east of the Bahamas, but no indication of any FL threat.

[SeGaBob]

There's always the chance it could but most models seem say no as of now anyway. And I wasn't replying to wxman57 but the comment above his.

[NDG]

Does anyone see this storm being a south Florida threat by the weekend? Just an opinion not a forecast.

Nope. It may move a little more slowly to the north as it passes east of the Bahamas, but no indication of any FL threat.

But if it misses the trough there is going to be a building Atlantic ridge from the east that could make it threaten the eastern US coast.

[cycloneye]

Updated Best Track.

AL, 07, 2013090418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 659W, 30, 1010, TD

[Iune]

It will be interesting to see what the NHC forecast for this system will be.

[Aric Dunn]

that column on radar beginning to wrap back around itself. very likely thats where the surface circ will tighten up. next pass of recon may find a much better signature within that convection.

[gatorcane]

Historical tracks with 65 miles of 97Ls location going back to 1842 for the month of September:

[Aric Dunn]

Does anyone see this storm being a south Florida threat by the weekend? Just an opinion not a forecast.

Nope. It may move a little more slowly to the north as it passes east of the Bahamas, but no indication of any FL threat.

But if it misses the trough there is going to be a building Atlantic ridge from the east that could make it threaten the eastern US coast.

There have a few solutions of missing the trough. it all depends on how it interacts with the energy/small vort to the NE it could stall the TD long enough to miss the trough or they both could rotate up (fujiwhara). has to be timed perfectly either way.

[blp]

Historical tracks with 65 miles of 97Ls location going back to 1842:

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/9807/lzp7.jpg[/img]

Interesting, so this projected path by most of the models would be uncommon.

[gatorcane]

Historical tracks with 65 miles of 97Ls location going back to 1842:

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/9807/lzp7.jpg[/img]

Interesting, so this projected path by most of the models would be uncommon.

Note this was just the month of September. Hortense in September of 1996 is the closest to what the models are showing but even then the models are turning it hard to the NE whereas Hortense was more North the gradually NNE.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nope. It may move a little more slowly to the north as it passes east of the Bahamas, but no indication of any FL threat.[/quote]
But if it misses the trough there is going to be a building Atlantic ridge from the east that could make it threaten the eastern US coast.[/quote]
There have a few solutions of missing the trough. it all depends on how it interacts with the energy/small vort to the NE it could stall the TD long enough to miss the trough or they both could rotate up (fujiwhara). has to be timed perfectly either way.[/quote]

This is going to be very interesting to watch!

[SeGaBob]

Interesting map Gatorcane... It shows more impacting land than not.

[alienstorm]

This is now starting to wrap itself up.



Now

[HurriGuy]

Historical tracks with 65 miles of 97Ls location going back to 1842:

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/9807/lzp7.jpg[/img]

Interesting, so this projected path by most of the models would be uncommon.

If you look at the latest models you will notice that more have gone farther west. Not nearly as many are doing this major recurve.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Does anyone see this storm being a south Florida threat by the weekend? Just an opinion not a forecast.

Nope. It may move a little more slowly to the north as it passes east of the Bahamas, but no indication of any FL threat.

But if it misses the trough there is going to be a building Atlantic ridge from the east that could make it threaten the eastern US coast.

You just made this amateur pee his pants

[wxman57]

Recon indicates a second vortex SW of the main vortex. Focus on the vortex near the convection, though.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@Gatorcane I remember Hortense well, it was the first hurricane to make landfall in the Maritimes (Nova Scotia in this case) as a cat 1, or stronger, since Blanche in 1975 (21 years).