ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

Is NHC going to start initiating advisories at 5 or wait until the recon is done?

[mascpa]

Where did 97L go; it's not on the map. A temporary condition? Taking a cruise out of Ft. Lauderdale Sunday: Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel. Say a little prayer for some good weather!

[alienstorm]

A different prospective

[jlauderdal]

How likely is it for it to to what Jeanne in 2004 did?

7.3%

[GCANE]

Very nice hot tower
http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/4923/avkb.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Wow look off to the Northeast if that wraps in

Massive!

[HurriGuy]

Looking at satellite and radar, I'm gunna have to say this thing is almost stationary at the moment. If anything a slight drift to the west-northwest.

[CrazyC83]

A clear sign that patience is necessary. This thing never gave up despite hostile conditions...

[Aric Dunn]

PR radar indicates second vortex rotating southward to the NE of the main center:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

May be multiple vortices.

yeah however winds are coming around to the NE over PR indicating the circ is becoming a little more defined and I cant see how it should not consolidate under that impressice low to mid level.. that convection on radar only at 6 to 8k feet.

[gatorcane]

Here is the latest 18Z information from RAL site:

At 1800 UTC, 04 September 2013, LOW INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 16.2°N and 65.9°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 294 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /al972013/

[Extratropical94]

Where did 97L go; it's not on the map. A temporary condition? Taking a cruise out of Ft. Lauderdale Sunday: Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel. Say a little prayer for some good weather!

It will reappear in a few minutes when the NHC declares TD 7.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Where did 97L go; it's not on the map. A temporary condition? Taking a cruise out of Ft. Lauderdale Sunday: Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel. Say a little prayer for some good weather!

A few pages back it was renumbered, in a few minutes we will see TD 7.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Note GFS in red...it is no longer forecasting a recurve

[SeGaBob]

I'm wondering if the disturbance to the east affects TD7's organization when they merge...

[GCANE]

New Hot Tower firing off 17N 65.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-vis-long.html

This is the one that counts.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL972013&starting_image=2013AL97_4KMSRBDC_201309041315.jpg


Tagged TD7 at CSU

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looking nice on sat. Looks like some more tracking ahead for moi.

['CaneFreak]

Track forecast is going to be problematic. That disturbance northeast of TD 7 is going to cause some havoc as it has really ramped up this afternoon. I am not so sure on the recurve scenario now if these two disturbances circle around one another. This is going to be an interesting next few days.

[HurriGuy]

Looks like recon is done if I am correct?

[hurricaneCW]

A recurve is pretty much likely at this point, but it'll be a slow move to the NE because of how far south this system is and the westerlies will lift north after the first trough goes through, which could weaken the steering currents (storm slows down) until the next trough takes it completely OTS.

It is very unusual for such a strong front to sweep this OTS (frost in interior northeast, temps more like early October expected), normally this would continue WNW and impact Florida or enter the Gulf as the storm was well inside the Herbert Box in early September.

[HurriGuy]

Track forecast is going to be problematic. That disturbance northeast of TD 7 is going to cause some havoc as it has really ramped up this afternoon. I am not so sure on the recurve scenario now if these two disturbances circle around one another. This is going to be an interesting next few days.

I really don't see such a recurve happening. I am shooting for a gradual turn over the next couple of days most likely impacting Florida and the Bahamas. Just my opinion though.

[wxman57]

Note that all models indicate a significant trof axis OFF the East U.S. Coast this weekend into next week. This means W to NW mid to upper-level winds along the East Coast. Such flow would indicate no threat to that region.