ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

People were suggesting this would go to the mainland? How? I'd be more worried about Bermuda, but it's interesting the official forecast keeps it a TS the entire time.

Also gatorcane trailer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Gw61ViOLE

[ozonepete]

im surprised they went with the coordinates they did..

That makes two of us..

[TheStormExpert]

Given the strength of the trough digging into the Western Atlantic (unseasonably strong for this time of year) which is confirmed by WV imagery analysis and depicted by all reliable model guidance, a recurve seems the safe bet as an initial forecast. Of course this may change as the NHC did mention there is alot of uncertainty with this one. But for the initial forecast, I think NHC made the right call showing a recurve.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And to think just a couple of weeks ago we had very strong ridging across the whole atlantic throughout the summer.

[cycloneye]

im surprised they went with the coordinates they did..

That makes two of us..

Where do both have it?

[ozonepete]

Looks like the NE low is going to eat up TD7 with that massive blow up. Interesting to see what will happen.

Ah but looks are deceiving, especially in this field. The NE disturbance is showing signs of getting absorbed into TD 7 now. It may be a massive blowup of very strong convection but it has no center of circulation underneath it any more so it can't be a player here. The system with the stronger circulation (TD7) always wins out.

[ozonepete]

im surprised they went with the coordinates they did..

That makes two of us..

Where do both have it?

I have it to the northeast of the NHC center, right under the recent convective blowup...

[Blown Away]

Looks like the NE low is going to eat up TD7 with that massive blow up. Interesting to see what will happen.

Ah but looks are deceiving, especially in this field. The NE disturbance is showing signs of getting absorbed into TD 7 now. It may be a massive blowup of very strong convection but it has no center of circulation underneath it any more so it can't be a player here. The system with the stronger circulation (TD7) always wins out.

Didn't most of the global models show the east area becoming the dominant area, not TD7?

[wxman57]

Looks like the NE low is going to eat up TD7 with that massive blow up. Interesting to see what will happen.

Ah but looks are deceiving, especially in this field. The NE disturbance is showing signs of getting absorbed into TD 7 now. It may be a massive blowup of very strong convection but it has no center of circulation underneath it any more so it can't be a player here. The system with the stronger circulation (TD7) always wins out.

Agree, ozonepete. Convection associated with the disturbance to the NE appears to be moving quickly westward and will likely merge with the developing storm in the next 24 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

That makes two of us..

Where do both have it?

I have it to the northeast of the NHC center, right under the recent convective blowup...

yeah the last recon fix had a couple vorts but the vort where they have had not deep convection. the other vort was essentially co-located with the low to mid level on radar.

[wxman57]

Didn't most of the global models show the east area becoming the dominant area, not TD7?

That is still true of the GFS this morning, though the Euro didn't show anything NE of TD 7. It appears the GFS is wrong and the Euro may be right. This indicates a slower movement north of the DR and a path closer to the eastern Bahamas then NE and not far from Bermuda in 5-6 days.

[MaineWeatherNut]

No one posted this so here it is... The first VDM for TD 7:

000
URNT12 KNHC 042126
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL972013
A. 04/20:39:30Z
B. 16 deg 22 min N
066 deg 02 min W
C. NA
D. 8 kt
E. 181 deg 1 nm
F. 354 deg 7 kt
G. 219 deg 35 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 22 C / 303 m
J. 23 C / 303 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 01DDA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 035/46 19:31:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 29 KT 010/42 20:55:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 220 / 35 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the NE low is going to eat up TD7 with that massive blow up. Interesting to see what will happen.

Ah but looks are deceiving, especially in this field. The NE disturbance is showing signs of getting absorbed into TD 7 now. It may be a massive blowup of very strong convection but it has no center of circulation underneath it any more so it can't be a player here. The system with the stronger circulation (TD7) always wins out.

Agree, ozonepete. Convection associated with the disturbance to the NE appears to be moving quickly westward and will likely merge with the developing storm in the next 24 hrs.

posted in the model page earlier about it. there is a weak vort with that blob that is shooting west and the whole area is at least in part doing a little fuijiwhara ... explains td7 lack of movement and the other disturbance moving rapidly west.. there is also a loop of a this interaction from 95

[sunnyday]

Fla met just said on tv that TD7 will be weak, have lots of rain, and not be any threat to Fl. Guess they dodged another bullet down there, huh?
On another channel, the met said that the storm should not affect Fl but go out to sea. He did mention to watch in case anything changes.

[wxman57]

Fla met just said on tv that TD7 will be weak, have lots of rain, and not be any threat to Fl. Guess they dodged another bullet down there, huh?
On another channel, the met said that the storm should not affect Fl but go out to sea. He did mention to watch in case anything changes.

That first TV station was not saying "lots of rain" for Florida, but implying heavy rain for the islands of the NE Caribbean. Both TV stations agree. I certainly would not rule out hurricane strength in 3-4 days. Not forecasting that yet, though.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My opinion on 07L and Yucatan Wave:

http://goo.gl/ZWPT7j


Overall, I believe Tropical Depression 7 will be a high end Tropical Storm at the end of the weekend, and might recurve. I am currently going with the over the sea (ots) idea but it is getting hard to believe with 07L moving North West. Also, I believe that Yucatan Wave will not develop.

[tolakram]

Latest saved radar loop looks a lot better than I was expecting.

[CourierPR]

6m
"Not on board yet with the recurve on its merry way idea on 7. Could stall in the Bahamas for a few days, waiting for eastern trough to leave"


Above is the latest Twitter post from Joe Bastardi.

[MGC]

Looking at the San Juan radar, it appears the MLC is due south of the eastern tip of PR. Don't look to be too much shear over the depression so I would think the LLCC is not far displaced from the MCL. It also appears that the MCL is moving slowly NNW. I'd say PR is going to get a big time soaking from this system. All that moisture to its NE is slowly getting drawn into the depression's circulation.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[sunnyday]

Right. The rain was for Puerto Rico and vicinity, wasn't it? The storm shouldn't go close enough to Fl to give them any rain, should it?

[vbhoutex]

People were suggesting this would go to the mainland? How? I'd be more worried about Bermuda, but it's interesting the official forecast keeps it a TS the entire time.

Also gatorcane trailer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Gw61ViOLE

ROFLMAO!! Don't tempt the Sci-Fi channel like that!!

Been a busy day for me. After checking on this earlier in the am I didn't think I'd see this when I came back. Shows you the tropics always has something to surprise us with. Haven't looked at anything else yet this afternoon but from what I have read and seen in this thread I don't see a reason to disagree with the recurve, at least not yet.