ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[sunnyday]

Is the recurve a certainty at this point? Is there any change the storm might not recurve?

[Hammy]

Are they actually planning on no recon missions for the next 12 hours despite land proximity?

edit: if this could be moved to recon discussion thread, as that's where I thought I was...

[SouthDadeFish]

To be honest, looks very impressive for a TD. Great outflow, and once it sucks in all that moisture from the disturbance to NE, it could really pop.

[Hammy]

I'm wondering if this might spin up a lot faster than expected once the other system is absorbed.

[galaxy401]

Can this storm try and squeeze through Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to get more water?

[TheStormExpert]

Latest saved radar loop looks a lot better than I was expecting.

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/7034/g32t.gif

In the last couple seconds it looks kind of elongated IMO.

[Gustywind]

Rainbow IR loop...talk about some convection...

Speaking about convection, numerous lightnings are coming in my way and thunder is rumbling very nicely too. Looks like more rain is to come. Just speaking about that and i've just experienced a poweroutage. Cycloneye, Fego and Barbara be aware, stay safe and dry my friends.

[tolakram]

Why do the JB predictions of no recurve bother me so much? As a premium member of Weatherbell I can say he's offered no concrete evidence as to why this would not recurve. He's thought for a while that it might get hung up as weak disturbance in the Bahamas, but both the Euro and GFS missed development and insist the disturbance NE of this system will form.

The UKMet and to a lessor degree the Canadian have nailed this storm so far, and both show a sharp recurve. But that would be boring.

Tcgen page for model comparisons. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

I can not say for sure this will recurve, nothing is ever 100% certain in the tropics, but those kinds of one liners that he tweets are not very responsible IMO.

[cycloneye]

Closeup radar loop.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/2lk72fs.jpg

[HurricaneTracker2031]

[quote="SouthDadeFish"]To be honest, looks very impressive for a TD. Great outflow, and once it sucks in all that moisture from the disturbance to NE, it could really pop.

Agreed! It has a lot to work with

[NDG]

Let me see a show of hands from you who think that the NHC intensity forecast for TD 7 is very conservative?
I just don't see why 97L will not become a hurricane within 5 days.

[tolakram]

Let me see a show of hands from you who think that the NHC intensity forecast for TD 7 is very conservative?
I just don't see why 97L will not become a hurricane within 5 days.

Tough call. Hispaniola will really do a number on it, IMO, even if it misses a direct hit.

[tolakram]

Latest.

[NDG]

Didn't most of the global models show the east area becoming the dominant area, not TD7?

That is still true of the GFS this morning, though the Euro didn't show anything NE of TD 7. It appears the GFS is wrong and the Euro may be right. This indicates a slower movement north of the DR and a path closer to the eastern Bahamas then NE and not far from Bermuda in 5-6 days.

18z GFS looks like it finally dropped the idea of developing the TW east of TD 7

[TheStormExpert]

Let me see a show of hands from you who think that the NHC intensity forecast for TD 7 is very conservative?
I just don't see why 97L will not become a hurricane within 5 days.

With the way this season has been going so far it is a really tough call.

[hurricaneCW]

Could wreck havoc on PR and DR, how much rain is expected?

[TheStormExpert]

Latest.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/1199/mtx9.jpg

WOW! Impressive for a TD that just formed a little over an hour ago.

[ozonepete]

To be honest, looks very impressive for a TD. Great outflow, and once it sucks in all that moisture from the disturbance to NE, it could really pop.

Agreed! It has a lot to work with

The merge is well underway. This is what I see based on the rgb loop, i.e. most of the moisture input to the NE disturbance is now getting shunted into TD7 and their two upper level outflows are converging and favoring TD7. There's a lot of warm water under it and it looks like it might not lose much convection at DMIN. In that case this could really pop.

[tolakram]

A lot of dropped frames in this loop, but turn them off and speed it up for an impressive look at how things have evolved this afternoon.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

Zoomed in: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[hurricanes1234]

Let me see a show of hands from you who think that the NHC intensity forecast for TD 7 is very conservative?
I just don't see why 97L will not become a hurricane within 5 days.

I was also a little surprised to see it at 60 mph when the models called for at least a hurricane (highest was a Category 4). But then again, nothing so far has strengthened that much, so I agree with them a little, it's better to be conservative than generous, especially in a season where things are erratic.

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