ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Could wreck havoc on PR and DR, how much rain is expected?

.HYDROLOGY...FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND...BUT THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM FOR NOW. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR
3-6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND 5 TO 10 IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER
THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND AND LESS THAN 1-2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe and now the Northern Leewards are in yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf

[hurricaneCW]

Could wreck havoc on PR and DR, how much rain is expected?

.HYDROLOGY...FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND...BUT THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM FOR NOW. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR
3-6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND 5 TO 10 IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER
THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND AND LESS THAN 1-2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

Yikes! So some places could get over a foot of rain from this and it's getting even more moisture from the disturbance to its east.

[hurricanes1234]

So what exactly happens when storms absorb disturbances? Does the moisture cause it to intensify? Or does the disturbance's circulation interact with the storm's and messes it up? What happens?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Why do the JB predictions of no recurve bother me so much? As a premium member of Weatherbell I can say he's offered no concrete evidence as to why this would not recurve. He's thought for a while that it might get hung up as weak disturbance in the Bahamas, but both the Euro and GFS missed development and insist the disturbance NE of this system will form.

The UKMet and to a lessor degree the Canadian have nailed this storm so far, and both show a sharp recurve. But that would be boring.

Tcgen page for model comparisons. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

I can not say for sure this will recurve, nothing is ever 100% certain in the tropics, but those kinds of one liners that he tweets are not very responsible IMO.

I couldn't agree more. In a complex situation like this a tweet is almost useless and could be harmful.

[jlauderdal]

Why do the JB predictions of no recurve bother me so much? As a premium member of Weatherbell I can say he's offered no concrete evidence as to why this would not recurve. He's thought for a while that it might get hung up as weak disturbance in the Bahamas, but both the Euro and GFS missed development and insist the disturbance NE of this system will form.

The UKMet and to a lessor degree the Canadian have nailed this storm so far, and both show a sharp recurve. But that would be boring.

Tcgen page for model comparisons. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

I can not say for sure this will recurve, nothing is ever 100% certain in the tropics, but those kinds of one liners that he tweets are not very responsible IMO.

I couldn't agree more. In a complex situation like this a tweet is almost useless and could be harmful.

internet filter at all times

[ozonepete]

So what exactly happens when storms absorb disturbances? Does the moisture cause it to intensify? Or does the disturbance's circulation interact with the storm's and messes it up? What happens?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Speaking only about TCs, that's some of the most complicated physics in tropical meteorology. It is different in every case because it depends on how close they are, how strong each one is and what the surrounding atmospheric environment and nearby ocean surface and land conditions are. It's never the same. In this case TD7 has become more organized and is intensifying. The other disturbance has much less vorticity with it. Since they are quite close, TD7 is taking over and is starting to pull in the moisture inflow channels that were feeding the weaker disturbance. So that disturbance will fade out now and TD7 will enlarge in area.

[hurricaneCW]

On the 18z gfs, it looks like it gets left behind to meander near Bermuda. The gfs still showed two disturbances instead of one do it makes you wonder what would happen if it just focused on TD7.

[Slughitter3]

So I'm going to be the guy that asks for everyone's opinions. Living on the West Coast of Florida, I know the models say one thing but what does everyone feel for the FL peninsula?

[ozonepete]

I couldn't agree more. In a complex situation like this a tweet is almost useless and could be harmful.

internet filter at all times

You are right of course. When will I ever learn.

[HurricaneQueen]

I didn't realize how close the disturbance to the east of TD 7 was. Perhaps it is an optical illusion as I haven't checked the actual coordinates. This could make for an interesting situation in a day or two. To all my friends in Puerto Rico, please be safe.
Lynn

[NDG]

Latest ch 4 IR sat pix, this shows its great outflow in all quadrants.

[hurricanes1234]

So what exactly happens when storms absorb disturbances? Does the moisture cause it to intensify? Or does the disturbance's circulation interact with the storm's and messes it up? What happens?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Speaking only about TCs, that's some of the most complicated physics in tropical meteorology. It is different in every case because it depends on how close they are, how strong each one is and what the surrounding atmospheric environment and nearby ocean surface and land conditions are. It's never the same. In this case TD7 has become more organized and is intensifying. The other disturbance has much less vorticity with it. Since they are quite close, TD7 is taking over and is starting to pull in the moisture inflow channels that were feeding the weaker disturbance. So that disturbance will fade out now and TD7 will enlarge in area.

Thank you very much! Hope everyone in Puerto Rico stays safe.

[pgoss11]

Looking very good!

[jlauderdal]

So I'm going to be the guy that asks for everyone's opinions. Living on the West Coast of Florida, I know the models say one thing but what does everyone feel for the FL peninsula?

1% chance you see a drop of rain from the system..big trough will keep it far away

[HurricaneBelle]

Rainbow IR loop...talk about some convection...

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/7851/1ih.gif

The two systems coming together on this loop looks like Michaelangelo's The Creation of Adam.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Creac ... gel%29.jpg

[Ntxw]

Looks very impressive, did all this during Dmin which is a sign it's healthy and strengthening. I have seen systems get TS status that looked way worse.

[pgoss11]

When two systems merge..will there be a new center of circulation that forms?

[Hammy]

:uarrow: When two systems merge..will there be a new center of circulation that forms?

center reformation is certainly possible but it seems more likely, at least to me, that the NE system will merely distort eventually get sucked into TD7.

And if things continue it would not surprise me to see a significantly stronger system tomorrow morning when recon arrives.

[pgoss11]

:uarrow: When two systems merge..will there be a new center of circulation that forms?

center reformation is certainly possible but it seems more likely, at least to me, that the NE system will merely distort eventually get sucked into TD7.

And if things continue it would not surprise me to see a significantly stronger system tomorrow morning when recon arrives.

Thanks Hammy