ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

:uarrow: When two systems merge..will there be a new center of circulation that forms?

Not likely. It appears the moisture from the disturbance to the NE will wrap into the northern part of TD 7 tonight then be drawn into the depression. No new center in between the two, for example. But I do think the models are not handling the two systems well, which is why I'd go left of NHC's track and very slow movement near Turks & Caicos in 3 days before lifting out to the NE.

[tolakram]

View from further out. SAL incoming from the east might hamper any development of the eastern feature as well.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: When two systems merge..will there be a new center of circulation that forms?

Not likely. It appears the moisture from the disturbance to the NE will wrap into the northern part of TD 7 tonight then be drawn into the depression. No new center in between the two, for example. But I do think the models are not handling the two systems well, which is why I'd go left of NHC's track and very slow movement near Turks & Caicos in 3 days before lifting out to the NE.

Just what I was going to say wxman. Aric has also discussed this. I think we all agree that the interaction, until finished, should tend to forestall a northward turn for a while. I also feel it will go very close to or through the Mona Passage between DR an dPR and then a little more westward before the trough picks it up. So its forward speed the next two days is also critical.

[tailgater]

Latest ch 4 IR sat pix, this shows its great outflow in all quadrants.

Looks like Ch4 is trying to make this TD look like a CAT3, Iguess I should expect that nowadays.

[ninel conde]

On the 18z gfs, it looks like it gets left behind to meander near Bermuda. The gfs still showed two disturbances instead of one do it makes you wonder what would happen if it just focused on TD7.

yea, the newfoundland wheel is developing at that time.

[ninel conde]

View from further out. SAL incoming from the east might hamper any development of the eastern feature as well.

there is one part of that picture people are missing.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-67&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

[hurricaneCW]

On the 18z gfs, it looks like it gets left behind to meander near Bermuda. The gfs still showed two disturbances instead of one do it makes you wonder what would happen if it just focused on TD7.

yea, the newfoundland wheel is developing at that time.

Well there has been some sort of magnet these past few years that is causing storms to go near or hit the east coast north of Florida starting with Earl, which came very close to the coast.

[Hammy]

On the 18z gfs, it looks like it gets left behind to meander near Bermuda. The gfs still showed two disturbances instead of one do it makes you wonder what would happen if it just focused on TD7.

yea, the newfoundland wheel is developing at that time.

Well there has been some sort of magnet these past few years that is causing storms to go near or hit the east coast north of Florida starting with Earl, which came very close to the coast.

Its merely where the westernmost edge of the Bermuda High is.

[ozonepete]

On the 18z gfs, it looks like it gets left behind to meander near Bermuda. The gfs still showed two disturbances instead of one do it makes you wonder what would happen if it just focused on TD7.

yea, the newfoundland wheel is developing at that time.

Well there has been some sort of magnet these past few years that is causing storms to go near or hit the east coast north of Florida starting with Earl, which came very close to the coast.

It's just the Bermuda high being stronger and extending further westward more in some seasons than others. It is the primary reason that Cape Verde storms make it to the east coast. It is why Dr. Gray's team thought more U.S. landfalls were possible this year.

[ozonepete]

Btw it is worth noting that until all of the low level moisture channels get diverted into TD7 it will still wait to really blow up. At this point the convection over the NE disturbance is still pulling some moisture away from it. And it's hard to say when that will end.

[TJRE]

I sure hope the next NHC disco includes some ideas about that fuel tank ....




http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

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Ships-- RI snipit

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al972013/stext/13090418AL9713_ships.txt

[NDG]

Deep convection keeps refiring, very impressive for this time of the day.

[Hurricaneman]

And people keep thinking that the wave coming off of Africa will become the first hurricane of the year, but I have to beg to differ on that, TD7 will probably get that designation in a few days as it already looks like it will explode

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Just looking at the Visible satellite right now, if I didn't know any better I would say this is at least a minimal TS right now. Chances are looking good that it could be upgraded to TS Gabrielle @ 11pm. 8pm is just an intermediate advisory and upgrades never usually happen on those advisories.

[TheStormExpert]

And people keep thinking that the wave coming off of Africa will become the first hurricane of the year, but I have to beg to differ on that, TD7 will probably get that designation in a few days as it already looks like it will explode

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

After all the recent failing Invest in that region really feel skeptical about anything more than a TS forming out there.

[Gustywind]

I sure hope the next NHC disco includes some ideas about that fuel tank ....


http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/7462/4qw1.jpg

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Ships-- RI snipit

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al972013/stext/13090418AL9713_ships.txt

One thing for sure is that the fuel tank spread nice strong showers and tstorms on Guadeloupe since 1hour. The local radio has already reported some minors floodings in some areas. Improvement is not expected till Friday morning.
I advice all islanders to be on their guard. Things can turn quickly with each system in terms of rain.
We hope that both system move away from the Lesser Antilles without any damage and death.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, this really took off this afternoon. Doubting this is still a TD now, rotation on radar is increasing by the hour.

[NDG]

Latest zoomed in radar loop, impressive rain rates of 2-3"/hr, probably more than that since radar usually underestimates tropical rain rate.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/JUA.DHR ... 173_an.gif

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see the NW movement indicated by NHC. Looks more WNW.