ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

When is this making landfall?

[Alacane2]

Just looking at the Visible satellite right now, if I didn't know any better I would say this is at least a minimal TS right now. Chances are looking good that it could be upgraded to TS Gabrielle @ 11pm. 8pm is just an intermediate advisory and upgrades never usually happen on those advisories.

But it does happen:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

[tailgater]

I haven't been watching too closely, is the LLC under that MLC?

[jlauderdal]

And people keep thinking that the wave coming off of Africa will become the first hurricane of the year, but I have to beg to differ on that, TD7 will probably get that designation in a few days as it already looks like it will explode

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

what about the john hope rule?

[TJRE]

When is this making landfall?

Latest NHC path does not show a direct landfall

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/mflash-rgb.html



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[TheStormExpert]

Just looking at the Visible satellite right now, if I didn't know any better I would say this is at least a minimal TS right now. Chances are looking good that it could be upgraded to TS Gabrielle @ 11pm. 8pm is just an intermediate advisory and upgrades never usually happen on those advisories.

But it does happen:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

Oh yeah, I forgot about recently TS Erin.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 66.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[pgoss11]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 66.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Nearly stationary

[HurriGuy]

So now they drop it at 2mph. Lol. I don't think it was ever moving at 8mph. Again....not to sure about the NNW movement.

Although it might be moving in that direction. I can't tell.

[hurricanes1234]

Look at this how strange.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[msbee]

Look at this how strange.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

might dump some heavy rain on us though
following from Meteo France, thanks to Gustywind:

Latest weather forecast for the Northern Leewards. Yellow alert is up!


Level of vigilance: yellow

Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms

Validity: Wednesday, September 04, 2013 at 9 p.m. to Friday, September 06, 2013 at 12:00

Current situation: The axis of a relatively active tropical wave is crossing the Caribbean arc.

Forecasts: Rain at the front of this wave begin to spread on the northern part of the Lesser Antilles and take a stormy character tonight. Rainfall values expected should reach between 50-100 millimeters in less than 12 hours . No improvement sustainable is expected before Friday morning.

[floridasun78]

starting look like this fish storm

[NDG]

T numbers increased.

04/2345 UTC 16.8N 66.3W T2.5/2.5 07L -- Atlantic

[Hurricaneman]

starting look like this fish storm

its going to nail Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with floods, so in no way is this a fish

Its going to be bad for those it does hit though

[CrazyC83]

T numbers increased.

04/2345 UTC 16.8N 66.3W T2.5/2.5 07L -- Atlantic

They might upgrade at 11, but there was nothing even close to TS force in the Recon flight so I wouldn't for now.

[ozonepete]

When is this making landfall?

Latest NHC path does not show a direct landfall

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/mflash-rgb.html

It looks quite likely to nick southwestern PR so I would say landfall tomorrow morning.

[NDG]

starting look like this fish storm

its going to nail Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with floods, so in no way is this a fish

Its going to be bad for those it does hit though

And could also hit Bermuda, and could miss the trough so to call it a fish storm at this time is too early.

[ozonepete]

starting look like this fish storm

Don't tell that to people in Puerto Rico or the DR and Haiti.

[CrazyC83]

A thread has opened at the top of the folder for preparations, observations, warnings, etc.

[cycloneye]

Remains as TD on best track.

AL, 07, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 663W, 30, 1008, TD,