ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Wow this convection keeps expanding with the system to Gabrielle's east..

Stay safe Cycloneye, Gustywind, Msbee, and all in those the islands. Lot's of nasty weather on the way for you all:

http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/1637/l40.gif

The power of the current MJO phase, research study is correct!

[HurriGuy]

Anyone feel like chiming in on the blob of dry air to the north sinking south? Will this be a suppressing factor? Or can this TS pull all the convection together and shield itself off?

[HurriGuy]

I could be wrong but it looks like Gabrielle could make landfall on PR?
Not an official forecast.

Where NHC has the center plotted I would think no landfall any time soon. Especially at its near stationary speed.

[Aric Dunn]

I could be wrong but it looks like Gabrielle could make landfall on PR?
Not an official forecast.

Where NHC has the center plotted I would think no landfall any time soon. Especially at its near stationary speed.

The nhc position and plot is quiet likely off ... the mona passage seems a little off. likely right over PR do to the interaction between it and the energy to the NE . this of course comes from simple conversion.. the convection under little shear is likely going to be the place a center would consolidate.. looking a overlays and surface as well as recon before it left.. leads to no real indication of a center that far to the sw of the convection.. we will see however overnight..

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I could be wrong but it looks like Gabrielle could make landfall on PR?
Not an official forecast.

Where NHC has the center plotted I would think no landfall any time soon. Especially at its near stationary speed.

The nhc position and plot is quiet likely off ... the mona passage seems a little off. likely right over PR do to the interaction between it and the energy to the NE .

So, do you think the NNW movement could continue as a result of the interaction?

[NDG]

yet again the John Hope Rule fails

yet another TC forming in the east Caribbean. This is 13 since 2003

I knew you were going to bring this up to people who were arguing with you the last couple of days regarding this subject, lol.
I hope they understand that John Hope's rule only applies at certain times of the year and or certain years.

[gatorcane]

RAL update:

At 0000 UTC, 05 September 2013, TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE (AL07) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 16.7°N and 66.3°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 325 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al072013/

[CrazyC83]

If the center is at 17.4N 66.2W (which seems to be where it is looking at radar), how would that change the future of TD7/Gabrielle? That is about 50 miles north of the 8 pm advisory location.

[pgoss11]

I could be wrong but it looks like Gabrielle could make landfall on PR?
Not an official forecast.

Where NHC has the center plotted I would think no landfall any time soon. Especially at its near stationary speed.

The nhc position and plot is quiet likely off ... the mona passage seems a little off. likely right over PR do to the interaction between it and the energy to the NE .

It does look like it will almost be drawn in over PR due to the interaction of the system to the NE.
Just an observation, not a forecast.

[ozonepete]

yet again the John Hope Rule fails

yet another TC forming in the east Caribbean. This is 13 since 2003

I knew you were going to bring this up to people who were arguing with you the last couple of days regarding this subject, lol.
I hope they understand that John Hope's rule only applies at certain times of the year and or certain years.

Yeah please let the guy rest in peace. He's been quoted twice in the last 24 hours on here as saying things he never said. He's being seriously misquoted.

[ozonepete]

Anyone feel like chiming in on the blob of dry air to the north sinking south? Will this be a suppressing factor? Or can this TS pull all the convection together and shield itself off?

So far it's the latter. No indications yet that this will be a factor, especially since at mid-levels the RH is no longer that low in that region and moistening as we go forward in time.

[Aric Dunn]

you know what though that is one large area of deep convection to the east and NE.. if does not die out overnight its going to cause serious energy displacement. its nearly 4 to 6x the size of this system.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Well on the latest radar loops you can see the strongest storms firing in a circular formation (about 50% closed) around where the Eye wall will form as it strengthens.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest

[pgoss11]

That system to the NE is just enormous..and them are some huge thunderstorms!!

[KatDaddy]

ATCF now has 07L.GABRIELLE. TD 7 upgrade to TS Gabrielle coming soon. Lots of flooding rains for Puerto Rico the next 24 hours.

[HurriGuy]

There is something that still just doesn't look right about this system. The wave to the east is really throwing me off.

[ROCK]

maybe the models were not that far off with developing the east low and leaving behind the west.....IDK....uncharted territory here. The mass to the NE looks very stout.

[HurriGuy]

I guess its just the overall size of TS Gab. in reference to the massive wave that is puzzling me.

[gatorcane]

It's going to be interesting to watch what comes out of these two systems interacting. Can't recall I have seen this type of setup in the Atlantic before.