ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

I could definitely see that LLC will at least clip the western tip of P.R.

[SouthDadeFish]

Just a small area of convection but the convection that is there is very deep:

[abajan]

With all the rain Puerto Rico has had recently, this slow movement spells trouble for them. Some parts are already getting heavy rain.

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[HurriGuy]

I am assuming it will keep this main core of convection seeing that majority of the rest has died down. I just want to know what we'll have in the morning.

[pgoss11]

Just curious if the larger system to the NE could actually rob the energy from Gabrielle. This is quite the unique situation.

[ozonepete]

you know what though that is one large area of deep convection to the east and NE.. if does not die out overnight its going to cause serious energy displacement. its nearly 4 to 6x the size of this system.

yup. that's basic physics. Probably why the NHC is getting nervous lol, by which I mean they still have it circled as a potential area of development and don't want to drop it yet. A number of people have said it here: the models were at one time developing that blob (and roaring it off northward) and letting the other one move towards the Bahamas as a small weaker system. You just can't ignore the possibilities. That is a huge amount of energy to the NE.

[tolakram]

Saved loop ending about an hour ago.



Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-66&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10

[ROCK]

well the 0Z globals should help....the 18Z NAVGEM develops the NE low again and traps Gabby north of Hispa.....this is going to be cool to watch...

[MaineWeatherNut]

Latest Radar Loop:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like all the convergence has moved to the NE convection and is lowering over TD7

[galaxy401]

This storm has really shrunk compared to this morning.

[ozonepete]

The 11PM disco should be really interesting, although I doubt even they have a firm idea of what is happening or what will happen. This is a sit and watch situation - really fascinating.

[HurriGuy]

So will this still be a tropical storm at the next advisory?

[ROCK]

upgraded to Gabby now the NE blob is killing it.....how is the NHC going to explain this?

[ozonepete]

There's still a distinct possibility both could develop - TD7 going westward and the other one developing and shooting north.

[HurriGuy]

:uarrow: upgraded to Gabby now the NE blob is killing it.....how is the NHC going to explain this?

Thats what I was trying to figure out. NHC can't just say oops. lol

[ROCK]

There's still a distinct possibility both could develop - TD7 going westward and the other one developing and shooting north.

agree...all the globals have shown this scenario at one time or another....excluding the CMC....


that radar loop looks like Gabby is opening up...

[HurriGuy]

There's still a distinct possibility both could develop - TD7 going westward and the other one developing and shooting north.

How does that work? The wave getting organized and be placed on the north side? How does one go one way and the other another way?

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW seems to show the eastern blob pulling into Seven. Might this just be shear induced convection?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[SeGaBob]

The main blob of convection appears to be moving west to just north of west instead of northwest.