ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

New area of convection firing up now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-66&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=10

[Hammy]

Gabrielle could be starting to tap into the moisture of the larger system with the new blowup.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Starting to see some bands with Rotation moving on shore of PR.

[HurriGuy]

Puerto Rico is going to get slammed if the east wave keeps pushing over to its west. Good luck to all you guys on the islands and stay dry!

[Blown Away]

JB tweeting he is not sold on the recurve and using Hurricane Jeanne graphics for comparison...

[NDG]

Saved loop ending about an hour ago.

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/1157/rpo.gif

Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-66&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10

To me that piece of energy NE of soon to be officialy TS Gabrielle looks to becoming like a giant squall of Gabrielle.
There is nothing happening underneath that disturbance because surface pressures continue to go up at the islands east of P.R. The Island of St Marteen reporting a pressure of 1014mb and a CMan station in Barbuda is reporting a pressure of 1014mb, 2 mb higher than 24 hrs ago with nothing ESE and SE winds.

[NDG]

MIMIC-TPW seems to show the eastern blob pulling into Seven. Might this just be shear induced convection?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

Yes, that is what I am thinking that it is shear induced along with some surface convergence because there is a big easterly surge behind that tropical wave but like I said pressures underneat that TW are high and continue to go up.

[HurriGuy]

Should we start a countdown clock on the new advisory? LOL. Looking forward to what the NHC will say.

[tolakram]

To me that piece of energy NE of soon to be officialy TS Gabrielle looks to becoming like a giant squall of Gabrielle.
There is nothing happening underneath that disturbance because surface pressures continue to go up at the islands east of P.R. The Island of St Marteen reporting a pressure of 1014mb and a CMan station in Barbuda is reporting a pressure of 1014mb, 2 mb higher than 24 hrs ago with nothing ESE and SE winds.

It interrupted Seven for a while though, a feeder band on the SE side collapsed and started chaining into the eastern blob. It may be re-organizing now, hard to tell but at least we are getting some (more) rapid scans.

[ozonepete]

There's still a distinct possibility both could develop - TD7 going westward and the other one developing and shooting north.

How does that work? The wave getting organized and be placed on the north side? How does one go one way and the other another way?

If the wave developed it is so much larger that it could cause some Fujiwhara effect. that means both would rotate around the midpoint between them. This would cause TD7 to stall or slide a little southwestward very slowly while the other would move north or northwestward. At the same time the trough will be coming by and would grab the more northward system while leaving TD7 behind. Then TD7 could resume a westward track. I've seen this in the Pacific - happens once a year or so there because it's such a hotbed of activity where multiple TCs form in fairly close proximity.

[HurriGuy]

Boy, has the GFDL made a big flip-flop in its track. First it had it racing out to sea once past the islands into a major hurricane and now a track due west while now BAMS and LBAR have now shifted with current NHC cone.

[SFLcane]

A jeanne loop is possible but not likely

[MaineWeatherNut]

Latest Radar Presentation:

[HurriGuy]

Greg Postel tweet 20 minutes ago

"Mid-level circulation of #97L appears to have lost some of its vorticity (spin) in recent hours, per San Juan Doppler"

[Steve H.]

You must be seeing something I'm not. The 18Z GFDL has this going out to sea!

[SeGaBob]

TS Gabrielle is on NHC's site now.

[Blown Away]

JB tweeting he is not sold on the recurve and using Hurricane Jeanne graphics for comparison...

Should have posted graphic to support my post...Sorry I was lazy...No attack at all on JB, I enjoy his views on the weather...

[MGC]

Fairly vigorous feeder band moving towards PR. Storm is drawing its moisture feed from the Caribbean...doubt the huge convective complex to the NE is cutting off the moisture feed into the storm. Heavy convection should start to move onshore in 2-3 hours, provided the storm don't stall. Looks to me that landfall will be in SW PR early tomorrow morning at current rate. Gonna be a rainy night in PR. Yes, it is going to be interesting watching the two systems interact.....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Blinhart]

What is the likely hood that all the energy of that wave to the ENE of Gabby just wraps all around Gabby?

I know if that wave wasn't around everyone would be saying that Gabby is a very strong Tropical Storm getting close to Hurricane, because of how tightly wound she is and not worrying about if she was going to be around much longer.

This just shows how weird this tropical season has been.

[SeGaBob]

NHC still seems fairly confident about the recurve option in the 11pm advisory...