ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[ninel conde]

That darn Euro model and it's tendency to be correct.

This is how last nights Euro run initialized the vorticity. I thought it was crazy.



It sure looks like the center is trying to reform NE of PR.

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always go with the EURO.

[Aric Dunn]

from the looks of radar and sat... the circ has decoupled from the mlc and is barely moving still to the south of PR and maybe just a sharp trough ...

[tolakram]

Am I seeing the old LLC drifting west, just off the SE coast of Hispaniola?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tolakram]

Latest RGB

[Aric Dunn]

Am I seeing the old LLC drifting west, just off the SE coast of Hispaniola?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

yeah and no... that is from the surface obs and looking at the flow in the low levels a very elongated circ/ trough axis I highly doubt there is an organized llc atm.. maybe even worse than yesterday..

[Aric Dunn]

taking a look at the 1km there is not likely anything circ anymore... if there is its sitting somewhere around here..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 67.4W AT
05/1200 UTC...OR ABOUT 57 NM W-SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
73 NM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING NW AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
62W-68W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

[Gustywind]

Same intensity, stays at 2.5/2.5.

05/1145 UTC 17.7N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE
05/0545 UTC 17.3N 66.5W T2.5/2.5 GABRIELLE

[wxman57]

Plane is flying west just south of PR and finding straight southerly winds on the southwest side of the heavy convection. Not a sign of an organized TS. Center appears to be west of 68W, well west of the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Plane is flying west just south of PR and finding straight southerly winds on the southwest side of the heavy convection. Not a sign of an organized TS. Center appears to be west of 68W, well west of the convection.

yeah appears south west of the mona passage if at all..

[ninel conde]

Plane is flying west just south of PR and finding straight southerly winds on the southwest side of the heavy convection. Not a sign of an organized TS. Center appears to be west of 68W, well west of the convection.

well, it lasted about average for 2013. now we need to see if anything can survive past 5 or 6 days when things might get a bit more favorable.

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding a wind shift but thats not a circ. a trough is about it..

[Alyono]

there is a west wind.... thats a circ

now... this may have weakened to a TD

[Aric Dunn]

there is a west wind.... thats a circ

now... this may have weakened to a TD

though there is a weak wind shift not sure I would call it a circ.. recon finding the wind shifting back the se its just a sharp trough. unless something develops near the MLC I think they are going to kill it at 11

[Aric Dunn]

Possibly a TS for only 12 hours lol

[canes04]

Aric & Wxman,

is it possible the LLC could reform off the east coast of PR? It appears a strong mid level is in this area.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric & Wxman,

is it possible the LLC could reform off the east coast of PR? It appears a strong mid level is in this area.

it could but likely it will at this point reform north of PR if at all.

[senorpepr]

A brief update from 09Z regarding Gabrielle (toward the end of the video) as well as TD 12E, TD Yutu (97W) and Invest 90W.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BL4RwG24Bxw[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track downgrades to TD.

AL, 07, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 174N, 677W, 30, 1011, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M,

[ninel conde]

Possibly a TS for only 12 hours lol

sweet. sept ace up to 0.25.